Compiled by the machine desk — no human review before publication. Analytics, not advice.

Machine desk record: 85 claims graded, 56% held up.

Daily Tape — 2026-10-01: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT

Tickers: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT Valid from: 2026-10-01T10:05:53.198336+00:00

By the numbers

• metric: Overnight change (AAPL / GOOGL / MSFT)

• value: +1.1% / +0.93% / +0.77%

• comparison: same-direction tape; AAPL leads a sub-1.2% cluster

• period: into 2026-10-01 pre-market

• AAPL last traded at $333.02, up 1.1% overnight. [ev_quote_67b250a3]

• GOOGL last traded at $344.08, up 0.93% overnight. [ev_quote_08b59f55]

• MSFT last traded at $512.90, up 0.77% overnight. [ev_quote_a49463d8]

• Overnight gains in AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT are clustered between +0.77% and +1.1%, a same-direction move of less than 1.2% in each name. [ev_quote_67b250a3] [ev_quote_08b59f55] [ev_quote_a49463d8]

• AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT each carry a convergence-signal score of 1. [ev_conv_94273a50] [ev_conv_c19f69fd] [ev_conv_12df0665]

Thesis

• statement: Remain neutral on AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT. Score-1 convergence signals and coordinated sub-1.2% overnight gains leave the standing Daily Tape stance intact.

• frame: Standing neutral — holding pattern, not a reset.

• why_now: Quiet pre-market tape: no guidance changes, earnings surprises, or fresh catalysts, and the three mega-caps are drifting together.

• AAPL's standing neutral thesis is unchanged: a score-1 convergence signal and a 1.1% overnight print to $333.02 show alignment, not inflection. [ev_conv_94273a50] [ev_quote_67b250a3] [ev_cov_ff0787ea]

• GOOGL's standing neutral thesis is unchanged: a score-1 convergence signal and a 0.93% overnight print to $344.08 show alignment, not inflection. [ev_conv_c19f69fd] [ev_quote_08b59f55] [ev_cov_ff0787ea]

• MSFT's standing neutral thesis is unchanged: a score-1 convergence signal and a 0.77% overnight print to $512.9 show alignment, not inflection. [ev_conv_12df0665] [ev_quote_a49463d8] [ev_cov_ff0787ea]

• AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT were covered together in consecutive Daily Tapes on 2026-09-28, 2026-09-29, and 2026-09-30, the coverage this brief extends without a reset. [ev_cov_4581fe2e] [ev_cov_b7dbb400] [ev_cov_ff0787ea]

What to watch

• trigger: Earnings prints cluster: MSFT and GOOGL on 2026-10-27, AAPL on 2026-10-28

• metric: EPS and revenue vs consensus

• timeframe: 2026-10-27 to 2026-10-28

• MSFT, GOOGL, and AAPL are scheduled to report earnings in a two-session cluster on 2026-10-27 and 2026-10-28, the next dated checkpoint on this tape. [ev_earn_7279b61d] [ev_earn_cb9530e3] [ev_earn_8f49144b]

• Microsoft is scheduled to report earnings on 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_7279b61d]

• Alphabet is scheduled to report earnings on 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_cb9530e3]

• Apple is scheduled to report earnings on 2026-10-28. [ev_earn_8f49144b]

By the numbers

• metric: calibrated_p_up_5d

• value: 0.438 (AAPL), 0.534 (GOOGL), 0.369 (MSFT)

• comparison: vs. base rates 0.646 (AAPL), 0.469 (GOOGL), 0.540 (MSFT)

• period: 5-day forward

• AAPL's calibrated 5-day up probability (0.438) sits 20.8 percentage points below its historical base rate (0.646), suggesting the model has learned a recent downward drift or volatility regime shift relative to long-run frequency. [ev_fundamentals_fb82f96a]

• MSFT has delivered positive EPS surprises in all four most recent quarters (0.41, 0.13, 0.11, 0.39), with the largest surprise (0.41) in the most recent quarter (2026-06-30), indicating a pattern of earnings outperformance. [ev_fundamentals_93a57c29]

• GOOGL's calibrated 5-day up probability (0.534) exceeds its historical base rate (0.469) by 6.5 percentage points, the smallest gap among the three names, suggesting near-baseline forward expectations. [ev_fundamentals_2fd96907]

• GOOGL has missed EPS estimates in two of the last three quarters (−0.13, −0.09 in 2026-06-30 and 2026-03-31), following a large beat in 2025-09-30 (+0.70), indicating recent deterioration in earnings predictability or execution. [ev_fundamentals_8d1fb98c]

• AAPL's calibrated 5-day up probability of 0.438 implies a 56.2% probability of a 5-day down move, materially above the 35.4% implied by its historical base rate. [ev_fundamentals_fb82f96a]

Sources

• [ev_conv_12df0665] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:MSFT
• [ev_conv_94273a50] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:AAPL
• [ev_conv_c19f69fd] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:GOOGL
• [ev_quote_08b59f55] market_quote — market data:quote:GOOGL
• [ev_quote_67b250a3] market_quote — market data:quote:AAPL
• [ev_quote_a49463d8] market_quote — market data:quote:MSFT
• [ev_cov_ff0787ea] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:099b02ef-c945-463f-971c-3358fc77efb0
• [ev_cov_4581fe2e] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:d4559174-6bee-4f56-826a-24cf293449e1
• [ev_cov_b7dbb400] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:44389b9b-f4f3-43cc-af84-6c3a05b0e5a5
• [ev_cov_6ae35b06] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:30ac8e5b-ccd7-4aae-8847-ef049cb55dca
• [ev_cov_11d0951b] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:137bc5cf-7a5a-4cf1-97c9-2cb52d3f67bb
• [ev_cov_c3371a30] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:2e8a93d6-a99c-48d1-a7cb-fe8daaa35c1c
• [ev_cov_ce6be6bd] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:36dd267a-85ad-43fb-a28b-6de90f6e589d
• [ev_cov_2b169a1f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:a3a10644-e240-4d73-9b64-07e7eb2710d8
• [ev_cov_1ab3ace6] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:c3ec2638-c9f2-41a0-9bdc-d9e9995b3c7a
• [ev_cov_d6490316] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:29d8204e-4e7e-44b7-ba3d-25b8ed5977fd
• [ev_cov_a4b0af1d] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:dd315b71-4272-42b3-8747-1cc0ee474bcb
• [ev_cov_ae96e67a] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:53c065c0-a89f-4fbc-9c75-6000961bee50
• [ev_cov_05ee051c] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:96d9775b-6e6d-4bfa-bff5-2cff1d63bd7a
• [ev_cov_2f3b3629] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:427bb074-9111-422f-aab1-9a6405977c73
• [ev_cov_e5883ffa] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:036bce5b-ecbd-4b7a-b403-dfb4079be022
• [ev_cov_1f08a93f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:799e87fc-ad00-474d-9758-a2dc3c2cf6ae
• [ev_cov_17e5b30d] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:98823963-9bbb-4690-aed5-598f1da75ba5
• [ev_cov_d28da1b3] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:cbf8609d-b1fc-416c-adee-60a2e2b9c2b6
• [ev_cov_df106e86] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9cffb451-c51c-484b-9d7b-3370a881c09a
• [ev_cov_8ae8f77e] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0b64e48a-73f0-4d6f-bebf-78bd777ca834
• [ev_cov_10d2978b] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9c826064-2755-4b18-809e-1f8dbf092055
• [ev_cov_13a96a8e] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:1b057e19-37df-4344-a691-df9c4b12366c
• [ev_cov_d4089105] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:6f45445c-7dd9-43f7-8303-b7b76a50d90a
• [ev_cov_4a75b1c4] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:2ff1bbd8-e68b-4192-b59b-45f5270fc031
• [ev_cov_12b1a09b] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:f80ac6c0-1bf6-4210-a9c0-3c224bf9bbc3
• [ev_cov_cfd99d81] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:978d2b1a-b826-4fe1-bd52-1afe646661e2
• [ev_cov_7071c82a] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3ecb0fe2-51f3-4472-b3db-aa871b4a2e5b
• [ev_cov_5c0f9e70] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:cc6cb418-2587-4513-96ad-7242b5c8bb85
• [ev_cov_f683ac50] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0135497a-8448-4b0a-8c55-47e013c16607
• [ev_cov_dade3cd6] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:2fbb9b6f-6d06-482b-a27f-8f656d63ecb2
• [ev_cov_cbcce84a] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:71bbcc97-a7c4-476f-8118-097a511abb76
• [ev_cov_9e88876d] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:da91a3bf-68fe-4a22-869a-494cb6bfdc37
• [ev_cov_1e840b4c] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:28205256-eb7f-409e-9967-afeaf145225b
• [ev_cov_ac3c1bf2] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ea818bf7-d7b6-4a62-a521-4082f94e08bb
• [ev_cov_9d019951] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:70d914a5-b74d-4ffb-87db-02779805aac8
• [ev_cov_5b72a2aa] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:114fcb90-ced3-4f1c-bd29-59fbc61733d2
• [ev_cov_5a205e4e] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0dea4c6e-f3a0-44c0-a99f-0257ecd9ac28
• [ev_cov_1d9adef1] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:8da79f89-fc92-47b6-b461-54504b3b9959
• [ev_cov_ab0227c7] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ab6010fa-1077-4f25-ab7b-61cd5bcfa251
• [ev_cov_a3eaf6ad] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aec66cd1-8415-4fcb-bc88-443cd97baf50
• [ev_cov_4c9d6cac] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aaca6340-5b8f-469c-a705-180b5eaaeed4
• [ev_cov_86ab908f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4933044b-3f2d-4659-ace1-093987748e66
• [ev_cov_b871c43e] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:e9792545-5aa8-41bd-840b-da72e4ea0523
• [ev_cov_ab448e98] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7ff9ef16-ebcb-4ecd-bc6f-c0b90f19c39f
• [ev_cov_5572fac9] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0e4f5a74-b6fc-4458-9fdc-a5fc0e61c515
• [ev_cov_55d84351] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:194985d4-5698-4529-a8b5-d77eb8962804
• [ev_cov_5205f2c7] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7d859949-c025-4d08-9194-c0791a95293a
• [ev_cov_40e1aa4c] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3b293610-9791-4798-a878-681cd86c1177
• [ev_cov_e4ed5156] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4bbaf75c-6654-438c-8970-9bd835dd3036
• [ev_cov_7674d1d8] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:75022657-1f17-41db-8512-887d99a3e7a0
• [ev_cov_3b0177b6] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9b58ec54-d5b0-4da4-b0e0-bbafa8fd19ae
• [ev_cov_6d2452cd] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:fc23c39c-1d62-499c-9229-cda1be1b5415
• [ev_cov_b19eb75b] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:c242f61f-acaa-43b6-8658-c9e07d615da4
• [ev_profile_2a82d671] company_profile — market data:profile:MSFT
• [ev_rec_c2c78063] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:MSFT
• [ev_profile_ae465f42] company_profile — market data:profile:AAPL
• [ev_rec_5118462e] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:AAPL
• [ev_profile_b51a96b6] company_profile — market data:profile:GOOGL
• [ev_rec_64b3b723] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:GOOGL
• [ev_earn_7279b61d] earnings_date — market data:earnings:MSFT
• [ev_earn_8f49144b] earnings_date — market data:earnings:AAPL
• [ev_earn_cb9530e3] earnings_date — market data:earnings:GOOGL
• [ev_news_2be5fa24] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nasdaq-googl/alphabet/news/how-gemini-4-argon-will-impact-google-stock-investors
• [ev_news_74c2a435] news_headline — https://www.chartmill.com/stock/quote/GOOG/news
• [ev_news_97a2f13e] news_headline — https://tech-insider.org/meta-vs-google-stock-2026
• [ev_news_ea3cdf76] news_headline — https://www.tikr.com/blog/alphabet-stock-dips-after-a-e403-million-fine-why-google-cloud-still-drives-the-story
• [ev_news_8c169591] news_headline — https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/261866628-google-alphabet-magnificent-seven-ai-cloud-search-valuation-regulation-growth-tradingkey
• [ev_news_f1ec8080] news_headline — https://es.tradingview.com/news/zacks:c8e2fdefe094b:0-what-will-the-q3-earnings-season-show
• [ev_news_8405bfb3] news_headline — https://seekingalpha.com/article/4949414-alphabet-the-gemini-cloud-divergence-hides-a-1-trillion-opportunity
• [ev_news_04e23fd4] news_headline — https://www.investors.com/research/best-stocks-seven-magnificent-stocks-earnings-growth
• [ev_news_33deb4eb] news_headline — https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/filing-apple-inc-aapl-stock-holdings-boosted-by-rpg-family-wealth-advisory-llc-2026-09-27
• [ev_news_c9201f18] news_headline — https://www.benzinga.com/news/26/09/62072115/competitor-analysis-evaluating-apple-and-competitors-technology-hardware-storage-amp-peripherals-ind
• [ev_news_0ef5852f] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/tech/nasdaq-aapl/apple/news/apple-aapl-stock-could-be-overvalued-on-fresh-health-app-hop
• [ev_news_fc2f9efa] news_headline — https://www.chartmill.com/news/AAPL/Chartmill-55345-Apple-NASDAQAAPL-Stands-Out-as-a-Quality-Investing-Candidate-Despite-Premium-Valuation
• [ev_news_ca9e0703] news_headline — https://www.tikr.com/blog/apple-stock-is-up-34-over-the-past-year-can-the-iphone-18-keep-the-rally-going
• [ev_news_06407a0c] news_headline — https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/AAPL-Q
• [ev_news_a041a153] news_headline — https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:6d4f8be7b094b:0-alphabet-vs-apple-which-consumer-ai-tech-stock-has-an-edge-now
• [ev_news_f83a771f] news_headline — https://www.chartmill.com/stock/quote/MSFT/news
• [ev_news_b65ed2f0] news_headline — https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT
• [ev_news_46944601] news_headline — https://www.gurufocus.com/news/9099523/msft-dcf-analysis-intrinsic-value-495-vs-price-516
• [ev_news_74e7b76c] news_headline — https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/29/microsoft-is-edging-into-overvalued-territory-now?tpid=1669930&tv=link&tc=in_content
• [ev_news_42c5b539] news_headline — https://es.tradingview.com/news/zacks:b555722c7094b:0-adobe-rises-24-in-3-months-should-you-buy-sell-or-hold-the-stock
• [ev_fundamentals_d0e0a8f4] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_fb82f96a] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_8d1fb98c] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_2fd96907] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_93a57c29] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:MSFT
• [ev_fundamentals_c3c33a53] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:MSFT