Compiled by the machine desk — no human review before publication. Analytics, not advice.

Machine desk record: 69 claims graded, 61% held up.

Daily Tape — 2026-09-16: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT

Tickers: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT Valid from: 2026-09-16T10:07:31.416755+00:00

By the numbers

• metric: Overnight last price and % change

• value: AAPL $331.34 (-0.52%); GOOGL $344.98 (-1.26%); MSFT $497.12 (-1.64%)

• comparison: All three mega-caps lower; MSFT led the decline

• period: Overnight session into 2026-09-16 pre-market

• Apple last traded at $331.34, down 0.52% overnight. [ev_quote_01bc499c]

• Alphabet last traded at $344.98, down 1.26% overnight. [ev_quote_6361680f]

• Microsoft last traded at $497.12, down 1.64% overnight, the steepest decline among AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT. [ev_quote_62296d99] [ev_quote_01bc499c] [ev_quote_6361680f]

• AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT each currently show a convergence signal with score 1. [ev_conv_c06f583a] [ev_conv_40f675a0] [ev_conv_34eedb37]

Thesis

• statement: Standing-neutral on AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT: overnight slips of 0.52%, 1.26%, and 1.64% read as shared technical alignment, not a fundamental break, with the next real checkpoint still the October 27–28 earnings cluster.

• frame: Unchanged mega-cap stance; treat the dip as tape, not a thesis change.

• why_now: Quiet pre-market, no new fundamental catalyst, and all three names print a convergence signal alongside sub-2% declines.

• AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT each currently carry a convergence signal (score=1), consistent with technical alignment across the three names rather than ticker-specific fundamental divergence. [ev_conv_c06f583a] [ev_conv_40f675a0] [ev_conv_34eedb37]

• Overnight last prints were AAPL $331.34 (−0.52%), GOOGL $344.98 (−1.26%), and MSFT $497.12 (−1.64%)—all sub-2% declines that, on their own, neither confirm a breakdown nor a continuation. [ev_quote_01bc499c] [ev_quote_6361680f] [ev_quote_62296d99]

• As of the 2026-09-01 snapshot, Street ratings remain net constructive but uneven: MSFT 41 buy / 5 hold / 0 sell, GOOGL 43 buy / 7 hold / 0 sell, and AAPL a more mixed 22 buy / 15 hold / 3 sell—supporting a hold-the-line neutral rather than a fresh directional call. [ev_rec_7a6cbdd7] [ev_rec_2cedcb14] [ev_rec_2d4cdacd]

• The nearest scheduled fundamental checkpoints are GOOGL and MSFT earnings on 2026-10-27 and AAPL earnings on 2026-10-28. [ev_earn_5f10cd4a] [ev_earn_cc15177d] [ev_earn_5b122421]

• This desk has run the same AAPL/GOOGL/MSFT Daily Tape in the immediately prior sessions (2026-09-14 and 2026-09-15), consistent with a standing-neutral frame rather than a catalyst-reset view. [ev_cov_0a718511] [ev_cov_b3c11b2b]

What to watch

• trigger: Late-October earnings: MSFT and GOOGL on 2026-10-27, AAPL on 2026-10-28; GOOGL’s 200-day moving-average test

• metric: EPS vs. consensus; GOOGL vs. 200-day MA

• timeframe: through 2026-10-28

• Microsoft is scheduled to report earnings on 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_cc15177d]

• Alphabet is scheduled to report earnings on 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_5f10cd4a]

• Apple is scheduled to report earnings on 2026-10-28. [ev_earn_5b122421]

• Alphabet last traded at 344.98, down 1.26%, after September 9 technical coverage that the shares were testing the 200-day moving average. [ev_quote_6361680f] [ev_news_91ca1446]

By the numbers

• metric: calibrated_p_up_5d

• value: 0.331 (AAPL) vs 0.533 (GOOGL) vs 0.375 (MSFT)

• comparison: GOOGL > MSFT > AAPL

• period: 5-day forward

• AAPL has shown mixed recent earnings surprises (−1.7 bps miss in June 2026, +2.2 bps beat in March 2026, +11.4 bps beat in December 2025), with a calibrated 5-day upside probability of 0.33—the lowest among the three names. [ev_fundamentals_3d59b1b5] [ev_fundamentals_ddf33778]

• GOOGL has exhibited a deteriorating earnings surprise trend (−13.0 bps miss in June 2026, −8.5 bps miss in March 2026) following a strong +70.5 bps beat in September 2025, with a calibrated 5-day upside probability of 0.53—the highest among the three names. [ev_fundamentals_5944cea1] [ev_fundamentals_e98f93ca]

• MSFT has delivered consistent positive earnings surprises across all four recent quarters (ranging +10.6 to +41.3 bps), with a calibrated 5-day upside probability of 0.37—middle of the three names. [ev_fundamentals_717efd29] [ev_fundamentals_318d826a]

Sources

• [ev_conv_34eedb37] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:MSFT
• [ev_conv_c06f583a] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:AAPL
• [ev_conv_40f675a0] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:GOOGL
• [ev_quote_6361680f] market_quote — market data:quote:GOOGL
• [ev_quote_62296d99] market_quote — market data:quote:MSFT
• [ev_quote_01bc499c] market_quote — market data:quote:AAPL
• [ev_cov_0a718511] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:036bce5b-ecbd-4b7a-b403-dfb4079be022
• [ev_cov_b3c11b2b] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:799e87fc-ad00-474d-9758-a2dc3c2cf6ae
• [ev_cov_6f2b6a3b] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:98823963-9bbb-4690-aed5-598f1da75ba5
• [ev_cov_356e3d01] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:cbf8609d-b1fc-416c-adee-60a2e2b9c2b6
• [ev_cov_a66e3207] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9cffb451-c51c-484b-9d7b-3370a881c09a
• [ev_cov_1820599f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0b64e48a-73f0-4d6f-bebf-78bd777ca834
• [ev_cov_582eb9ba] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9c826064-2755-4b18-809e-1f8dbf092055
• [ev_cov_4f3b79d8] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:1b057e19-37df-4344-a691-df9c4b12366c
• [ev_cov_ef41cdf8] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:6f45445c-7dd9-43f7-8303-b7b76a50d90a
• [ev_cov_b08565a8] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:2ff1bbd8-e68b-4192-b59b-45f5270fc031
• [ev_cov_f2829e80] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:f80ac6c0-1bf6-4210-a9c0-3c224bf9bbc3
• [ev_cov_6cd339b4] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:978d2b1a-b826-4fe1-bd52-1afe646661e2
• [ev_cov_b7e18c70] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3ecb0fe2-51f3-4472-b3db-aa871b4a2e5b
• [ev_cov_f36e3139] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:cc6cb418-2587-4513-96ad-7242b5c8bb85
• [ev_cov_afab6557] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0135497a-8448-4b0a-8c55-47e013c16607
• [ev_cov_becdf3f4] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:2fbb9b6f-6d06-482b-a27f-8f656d63ecb2
• [ev_cov_fa46c6b1] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:71bbcc97-a7c4-476f-8118-097a511abb76
• [ev_cov_a9fba9ac] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:da91a3bf-68fe-4a22-869a-494cb6bfdc37
• [ev_cov_9d67eadf] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:28205256-eb7f-409e-9967-afeaf145225b
• [ev_cov_bad8cfd5] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ea818bf7-d7b6-4a62-a521-4082f94e08bb
• [ev_cov_31fde160] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:70d914a5-b74d-4ffb-87db-02779805aac8
• [ev_cov_4e37486e] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:114fcb90-ced3-4f1c-bd29-59fbc61733d2
• [ev_cov_27542b61] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0dea4c6e-f3a0-44c0-a99f-0257ecd9ac28
• [ev_cov_5e7a96af] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:8da79f89-fc92-47b6-b461-54504b3b9959
• [ev_cov_8c9c4a42] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:96d9775b-6e6d-4bfa-bff5-2cff1d63bd7a
• [ev_cov_c7f18df9] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ab6010fa-1077-4f25-ab7b-61cd5bcfa251
• [ev_cov_df1b5b67] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aec66cd1-8415-4fcb-bc88-443cd97baf50
• [ev_cov_fd861b2f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aaca6340-5b8f-469c-a705-180b5eaaeed4
• [ev_cov_a37bdfda] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4933044b-3f2d-4659-ace1-093987748e66
• [ev_cov_fb3cb7c2] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:e9792545-5aa8-41bd-840b-da72e4ea0523
• [ev_cov_194c7b99] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7ff9ef16-ebcb-4ecd-bc6f-c0b90f19c39f
• [ev_cov_06e21a1f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0e4f5a74-b6fc-4458-9fdc-a5fc0e61c515
• [ev_cov_1223c23a] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:194985d4-5698-4529-a8b5-d77eb8962804
• [ev_cov_ab9433c8] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7d859949-c025-4d08-9194-c0791a95293a
• [ev_cov_291a72b0] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3b293610-9791-4798-a878-681cd86c1177
• [ev_cov_d51272d2] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4bbaf75c-6654-438c-8970-9bd835dd3036
• [ev_cov_6d823531] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:75022657-1f17-41db-8512-887d99a3e7a0
• [ev_cov_c8f50755] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9b58ec54-d5b0-4da4-b0e0-bbafa8fd19ae
• [ev_cov_94a86ee5] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:fc23c39c-1d62-499c-9229-cda1be1b5415
• [ev_cov_1bc49ba4] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:c242f61f-acaa-43b6-8658-c9e07d615da4
• [ev_profile_6320b692] company_profile — market data:profile:MSFT
• [ev_rec_7a6cbdd7] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:MSFT
• [ev_profile_f0eb48df] company_profile — market data:profile:AAPL
• [ev_rec_2d4cdacd] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:AAPL
• [ev_profile_7f4bf32f] company_profile — market data:profile:GOOGL
• [ev_rec_2cedcb14] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:GOOGL
• [ev_earn_cc15177d] earnings_date — market data:earnings:MSFT
• [ev_earn_5b122421] earnings_date — market data:earnings:AAPL
• [ev_earn_5f10cd4a] earnings_date — market data:earnings:GOOGL
• [ev_news_1b91e5d6] news_headline — https://www.barchart.com/story/news/4514462/what-it-means-for-msft-stock-investors-as-microsoft-switches-to-2-business-segments
• [ev_news_80f154e5] news_headline — https://www.chartmill.com/news/MSFT/Chartmill-54797-Microsoft-NASDAQMSFT-Combines-Strong-Growth-With-a-Quality-Technical-Setup
• [ev_news_ff29d4e2] news_headline — https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:6f0881c1c094b:0-can-msft-stock-rally-on-the-back-of-dynamics-365-business-applications
• [ev_news_1fb6521b] news_headline — https://www.marketbeat.com/articles/microsofts-azure-reporting-shift-adds-clarity-but-the-bull-case-came-first
• [ev_news_81b0bbc1] news_headline — https://www.investors.com/research/microsoft-msft-stock-buy-now-september-2026-2?src=A00220&yptr=yahoo
• [ev_news_0fa9270a] news_headline — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/orcl-vs-msft-stock-value-154002993.html
• [ev_news_34a8638a] news_headline — https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/11/my-agentic-ai-capital-is-going-one-place-over-and-over
• [ev_news_d4d41c1e] news_headline — https://www.moomoo.com/community/feed/apple-which-is-deeply-loved-by-buffett-117255905935366
• [ev_news_92998a84] news_headline — https://www.barchart.com/story/news/4590925/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-on-apple-stock-as-new-offerings-become-more-exciting
• [ev_news_eb2c8b44] news_headline — https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:72a0c76f7094b:0-apple-stock-new-ceo-foldable-iphone-time-to-buy-the-dip
• [ev_news_a406256a] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/tech/nasdaq-aapl/apple/news/apple-aapl-stock-looks-above-fair-value-after-strong-run
• [ev_news_8d6adf73] news_headline — https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/14/forget-nvidia-apple-could-be-the-ai-stock-to-watch-next
• [ev_news_a184b09e] news_headline — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/prediction-apple-stock-could-headed-123003066.html
• [ev_news_9ee7d5a5] news_headline — https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-sp500-nasdaq-cpi-inflation-report-oracle-stock-orcl
• [ev_news_ec155c23] news_headline — https://seekingalpha.com/article/4946436-apple-the-new-iphone-cycle-cannot-justify-this-valuation
• [ev_news_aac0a30e] news_headline — https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:7095e463f094b:0-alphabet-s-roic-is-strong-but-is-googl-stock-a-buy-now
• [ev_news_1053bf68] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nasdaq-googl/alphabet/news/alphabet-googl-stock-may-be-32-undervalued-on-berkshire-ai-b
• [ev_news_54bc7a87] news_headline — https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/261866628-google-alphabet-magnificent-seven-ai-cloud-search-valuation-regulation-growth-tradingkey
• [ev_news_91ca1446] news_headline — https://www.xtb.com/int/market-analysis/news-and-research/technical-analysis-alphabet-shares-fall-2-and-test-the-200-day-moving-average
• [ev_news_5c8d484b] news_headline — https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/GOOGL/pressreleases/4571284/should-you-buy-alphabet-stock-right-now
• [ev_news_f296f561] news_headline — https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/stocks/17494/next-week-earnings-calendar-stocks
• [ev_news_94df87e2] news_headline — https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-sp500-nasdaq-cpi-inflation-report-oracle-stock-orcl
• [ev_fundamentals_3d59b1b5] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_ddf33778] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_5944cea1] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_e98f93ca] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_717efd29] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:MSFT
• [ev_fundamentals_318d826a] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:MSFT