Compiled by the machine desk — no human review before publication. Analytics, not advice.

Machine desk record: 70 claims graded, 60% held up.

Daily Tape — 2026-09-21: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT

Tickers: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT Valid from: 2026-09-21T10:08:26.531618+00:00

By the numbers

• metric: Overnight last-print change

• value: AAPL $336.13 (-0.26%); GOOGL $349.54 (+0.64%); MSFT $493.78 (-0.8%)

• comparison: Mixed tape; GOOGL the sole gainer, MSFT the largest decline

• period: Overnight into 2026-09-21 pre-market

• AAPL last printed at $336.13, down 0.26% overnight. [ev_quote_999b20e1]

• GOOGL last printed at $349.54, up 0.64%, the only overnight gainer among AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT. [ev_quote_5cbe21ce] [ev_quote_999b20e1] [ev_quote_742d6ab0]

• MSFT last printed at $493.78, down 0.8%, the largest overnight decline of the three names. [ev_quote_742d6ab0] [ev_quote_999b20e1] [ev_quote_5cbe21ce]

• As of the 2026-09-01 snapshot, GOOGL carried 43 buy, 7 hold, and 0 sell analyst recommendations. [ev_rec_84c13cc4]

• As of the 2026-09-01 snapshot, MSFT carried 41 buy, 5 hold, and 0 sell analyst recommendations. [ev_rec_2f6f4c75]

• As of the 2026-09-01 snapshot, AAPL carried 22 buy, 15 hold, and 3 sell recommendations, the most mixed Street split of the three names. [ev_rec_cdbfa4eb] [ev_rec_84c13cc4] [ev_rec_2f6f4c75]

• AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT each currently carry a convergence-signal score of 1. [ev_conv_f7b1328f] [ev_conv_82cc325e] [ev_conv_60036f77]

Thesis

• statement: Neutral on AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT. Sub-1% last prints and same-day AI-safety volatility coverage do not re-rate the names: Street remains crowded-bullish on MSFT and GOOGL and mixed on AAPL, and the next material test is the October 27–28 earnings cluster.

• frame: Range-bound mega-cap tech; hold the line into late-October prints.

• why_now: Pre-market 2026-09-21: AAPL −0.26% to $336.13, MSFT −0.80% to $493.78, GOOGL +0.64% to $349.54. Parallel coverage flags AI-safety volatility, but there is no ticker-specific catalyst and earnings are about five weeks out.

• Last prints were AAPL $336.13 (−0.26%), GOOGL $349.54 (+0.64%), and MSFT $493.78 (−0.80%), all sub-1% moves. [ev_quote_999b20e1] [ev_quote_5cbe21ce] [ev_quote_742d6ab0]

• As of the 2026-09-01 snapshot, MSFT Street ratings were 41 buy, 5 hold, and 0 sell. [ev_rec_2f6f4c75]

• As of the 2026-09-01 snapshot, AAPL Street ratings were 22 buy, 15 hold, and 3 sell — the most mixed book of the three names. [ev_rec_cdbfa4eb] [ev_rec_2f6f4c75] [ev_rec_84c13cc4]

• As of the 2026-09-01 snapshot, GOOGL Street ratings were 43 buy, 7 hold, and 0 sell. [ev_rec_84c13cc4]

• MSFT and GOOGL both report earnings on 2026-10-27; AAPL reports on 2026-10-28. [ev_earn_a247e858] [ev_earn_cc63c0c9] [ev_earn_3530f5f1]

• Same-day coverage dated 2026-09-21 cites AI safety concerns as a source of market volatility and regulatory focus. [ev_cov_bfa2f03f]

• AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT each carry a convergence_signal score of 1. [ev_conv_f7b1328f] [ev_conv_82cc325e] [ev_conv_60036f77]

Risks

• risk: A step-up in AI-safety scrutiny or new regulatory constraints reprices mega-cap AI multiples and sours sentiment in AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT into the late-October earnings window.

• likelihood (medium): Same-day coverage already ties AI safety concerns to market volatility and regulatory focus, so the theme is live; a full policy shock before the October prints is not the base case.

• impact (high): AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT are the tape's core AI-exposed mega-caps; a regulatory scare would hit multiples and pre-earnings positioning across all three names at once.

• mitigant: Standing theses are already neutral, and the October 27–28 earnings prints can re-anchor the tape on fundamentals if no new rulemaking lands.

• Coverage published on 2026-09-21 flags AI safety concerns as a source of market volatility and heightened regulatory focus. [ev_cov_bfa2f03f]

• Microsoft and Alphabet report earnings on 2026-10-27 and Apple on 2026-10-28, the next scheduled window where an AI-safety or regulatory scare could reprice sentiment across the three names. [ev_earn_a247e858] [ev_earn_cc63c0c9] [ev_earn_3530f5f1] [ev_cov_bfa2f03f]

What to watch

• trigger: MSFT, GOOGL, and AAPL quarterly earnings prints

• metric: EPS and revenue versus consensus

• timeframe: 2026-10-27 to 2026-10-28

• Microsoft is scheduled to report fiscal first-quarter earnings on 2026-10-27, the next dated catalyst for the standing neutral thesis. [ev_earn_a247e858]

• Alphabet is scheduled to report fiscal third-quarter earnings on 2026-10-27, clustering with Microsoft as the first print in the late-October mega-cap tech window. [ev_earn_cc63c0c9] [ev_earn_a247e858]

• Apple is scheduled to report fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on 2026-10-28, one session after the MSFT and GOOGL prints. [ev_earn_3530f5f1] [ev_earn_a247e858] [ev_earn_cc63c0c9]

By the numbers

• metric: calibrated_p_up_5d

• value: 0.343–0.428

• comparison: base_rate

• period: 5-day forward

• AAPL has posted mixed EPS surprises over the past four quarters, with a +1.43% beat in Dec 2025 followed by a -0.89% miss in Jun 2026, indicating inconsistent execution relative to consensus. [ev_fundamentals_67994879]

• AAPL's calibrated 5-day up probability of 0.343 is the lowest among the three names, reflecting a below-base-rate expectation for near-term upside. [ev_fundamentals_759796d1]

• GOOGL has delivered two consecutive EPS misses (Jun 2026: -4.4%, Mar 2026: -3.1%) after a large beat in Sep 2025 (+29.6%), suggesting recent deterioration in earnings delivery. [ev_fundamentals_579279d8]

• MSFT has beaten EPS in all four most recent quarters, with the largest surprise in Jun 2026 (+8.7%), indicating consistent upside execution. [ev_fundamentals_aff27314]

• MSFT's calibrated 5-day up probability of 0.403 sits between AAPL (0.343) and GOOGL (0.428), despite MSFT's superior recent earnings track record, suggesting the model weights other factors beyond recent surprise history. [ev_fundamentals_4d477397] [ev_fundamentals_759796d1] [ev_fundamentals_727f55d8]

Sources

• [ev_conv_60036f77] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:MSFT
• [ev_conv_f7b1328f] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:AAPL
• [ev_conv_82cc325e] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:GOOGL
• [ev_quote_742d6ab0] market_quote — market data:quote:MSFT
• [ev_quote_999b20e1] market_quote — market data:quote:AAPL
• [ev_quote_5cbe21ce] market_quote — market data:quote:GOOGL
• [ev_cov_bfa2f03f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:29d8204e-4e7e-44b7-ba3d-25b8ed5977fd
• [ev_cov_1430bdd4] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:dd315b71-4272-42b3-8747-1cc0ee474bcb
• [ev_cov_e747f4c8] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:53c065c0-a89f-4fbc-9c75-6000961bee50
• [ev_cov_41ed07c1] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:96d9775b-6e6d-4bfa-bff5-2cff1d63bd7a
• [ev_cov_47e4214d] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:427bb074-9111-422f-aab1-9a6405977c73
• [ev_cov_6b4e58a4] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:036bce5b-ecbd-4b7a-b403-dfb4079be022
• [ev_cov_33306596] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:799e87fc-ad00-474d-9758-a2dc3c2cf6ae
• [ev_cov_6e6341dc] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:98823963-9bbb-4690-aed5-598f1da75ba5
• [ev_cov_e5f2dd90] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:cbf8609d-b1fc-416c-adee-60a2e2b9c2b6
• [ev_cov_ca0b667f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9cffb451-c51c-484b-9d7b-3370a881c09a
• [ev_cov_5337616a] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0b64e48a-73f0-4d6f-bebf-78bd777ca834
• [ev_cov_acb45c99] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9c826064-2755-4b18-809e-1f8dbf092055
• [ev_cov_0bf1fcfb] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:1b057e19-37df-4344-a691-df9c4b12366c
• [ev_cov_20a54007] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:6f45445c-7dd9-43f7-8303-b7b76a50d90a
• [ev_cov_8ec05fe8] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:2ff1bbd8-e68b-4192-b59b-45f5270fc031
• [ev_cov_5ac05e5e] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:f80ac6c0-1bf6-4210-a9c0-3c224bf9bbc3
• [ev_cov_7036dbd5] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:978d2b1a-b826-4fe1-bd52-1afe646661e2
• [ev_cov_14c8254c] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3ecb0fe2-51f3-4472-b3db-aa871b4a2e5b
• [ev_cov_5b09aedf] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:cc6cb418-2587-4513-96ad-7242b5c8bb85
• [ev_cov_fe0a200d] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0135497a-8448-4b0a-8c55-47e013c16607
• [ev_cov_6c9457bd] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:2fbb9b6f-6d06-482b-a27f-8f656d63ecb2
• [ev_cov_004347d0] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:71bbcc97-a7c4-476f-8118-097a511abb76
• [ev_cov_357fc1f2] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:da91a3bf-68fe-4a22-869a-494cb6bfdc37
• [ev_cov_93780d83] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:28205256-eb7f-409e-9967-afeaf145225b
• [ev_cov_e2899840] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ea818bf7-d7b6-4a62-a521-4082f94e08bb
• [ev_cov_14d8d21b] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:70d914a5-b74d-4ffb-87db-02779805aac8
• [ev_cov_9c140a1b] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:114fcb90-ced3-4f1c-bd29-59fbc61733d2
• [ev_cov_7f829be1] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0dea4c6e-f3a0-44c0-a99f-0257ecd9ac28
• [ev_cov_f9e2ebce] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:8da79f89-fc92-47b6-b461-54504b3b9959
• [ev_cov_28e9ac71] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ab6010fa-1077-4f25-ab7b-61cd5bcfa251
• [ev_cov_549bdaf2] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aec66cd1-8415-4fcb-bc88-443cd97baf50
• [ev_cov_d6893a93] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aaca6340-5b8f-469c-a705-180b5eaaeed4
• [ev_cov_6bddbc9e] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4933044b-3f2d-4659-ace1-093987748e66
• [ev_cov_ef529a4c] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:e9792545-5aa8-41bd-840b-da72e4ea0523
• [ev_cov_076dbf9b] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7ff9ef16-ebcb-4ecd-bc6f-c0b90f19c39f
• [ev_cov_537461cb] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0e4f5a74-b6fc-4458-9fdc-a5fc0e61c515
• [ev_cov_ff2168df] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:194985d4-5698-4529-a8b5-d77eb8962804
• [ev_cov_03b31e94] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7d859949-c025-4d08-9194-c0791a95293a
• [ev_cov_60033f53] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3b293610-9791-4798-a878-681cd86c1177
• [ev_cov_9ac1168e] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4bbaf75c-6654-438c-8970-9bd835dd3036
• [ev_cov_9619b794] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:75022657-1f17-41db-8512-887d99a3e7a0
• [ev_cov_988a3f84] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9b58ec54-d5b0-4da4-b0e0-bbafa8fd19ae
• [ev_cov_31880ba2] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:fc23c39c-1d62-499c-9229-cda1be1b5415
• [ev_cov_db46e10a] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:c242f61f-acaa-43b6-8658-c9e07d615da4
• [ev_profile_fc22b307] company_profile — market data:profile:MSFT
• [ev_rec_2f6f4c75] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:MSFT
• [ev_profile_e2bbcd8e] company_profile — market data:profile:AAPL
• [ev_rec_cdbfa4eb] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:AAPL
• [ev_profile_db1564e0] company_profile — market data:profile:GOOGL
• [ev_rec_84c13cc4] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:GOOGL
• [ev_earn_a247e858] earnings_date — market data:earnings:MSFT
• [ev_earn_3530f5f1] earnings_date — market data:earnings:AAPL
• [ev_earn_cc63c0c9] earnings_date — market data:earnings:GOOGL
• [ev_news_aa14204f] news_headline — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/apple-aapl-outperforms-broader-market-214506898.html
• [ev_news_d3106360] news_headline — https://www.barchart.com/story/news/4590925/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-on-apple-stock-as-new-offerings-become-more-exciting
• [ev_news_8d2667d6] news_headline — https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/aapl
• [ev_news_bc06c6cf] news_headline — https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:72a0c76f7094b:0-apple-stock-new-ceo-foldable-iphone-time-to-buy-the-dip
• [ev_news_5640c0b0] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/tech/nasdaq-aapl/apple/news/apple-aapl-stock-could-look-31-overvalued-on-new-health-devi/amp
• [ev_news_e5978a33] news_headline — https://www.chartmill.com/stock/quote/AAPL/stock-chart
• [ev_news_9023d9fa] news_headline — https://www.investors.com/research/breakout-stocks-technical-analysis/garmin-stock-apple-watch-rival-buy-range
• [ev_news_6f6776de] news_headline — https://www.chartmill.com/stock/quote/MSFT/news
• [ev_news_7ad1cff4] news_headline — https://www.benzinga.com/quote/MSFT
• [ev_news_6c47358d] news_headline — https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:a539b4e2f094b:0-3-reasons-to-hold-microsoft-stock-after-a-31-2-surge-in-3-months
• [ev_news_f4d31e38] news_headline — https://stockinvest.us/stock/MSFT
• [ev_news_b28f2e44] news_headline — https://www.investors.com/research/best-stocks-seven-magnificent-stocks-earnings-growth
• [ev_news_3a8b7ca8] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nasdaq-googl/alphabet/future
• [ev_news_2e4a204d] news_headline — https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:d42aa68ce094b:0-googl-down-7-in-the-past-3-months-buy-sell-or-hold-the-stock
• [ev_news_93c3f6c3] news_headline — https://www.chartmill.com/news/GOOGN/Chartmill-55068-Alphabet-Inc---GOOGL-6-14-051529-NASDAQGOOGN-Screens-as-a-GARP-Investing-Candidate
• [ev_news_4b3b513a] news_headline — https://stockstory.org/us/stocks/nasdaq/abnb/news/earnings/q2-earnings-outperformers-airbnb-nasdaqabnb-and-the-rest-of-the-consumer-internet-stocks
• [ev_fundamentals_67994879] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_759796d1] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_579279d8] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_727f55d8] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_aff27314] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:MSFT
• [ev_fundamentals_4d477397] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:MSFT