Compiled by the machine desk — no human review before publication. Analytics, not advice.

Machine desk record: 74 claims graded, 59% held up.

Daily Tape — 2026-09-23: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT

Tickers: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT Valid from: 2026-09-23T10:09:04.437237+00:00

Thesis

• statement: Remain neutral on AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT. Overnight tape is quiet, a three-name convergence signal is a technical checkpoint rather than a thesis change, and the next fundamental test is the Oct 27-28 earnings cluster.

• frame: Standing neutral on the mega-cap trio

• why_now: No overnight catalyst; AAPL +0.23%, MSFT -0.72%, GOOGL -1.07%. All three flash a convergence signal, and all three print within a day of each other in late October.

• Apple last traded at $339.75, up 0.23% overnight. [ev_quote_39aeb32d]

• Microsoft last traded at $498.0, down 0.72% overnight. [ev_quote_305eed7b]

• Alphabet last traded at $351.16, down 1.07% overnight. [ev_quote_4c3e7db3]

• AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT each currently register a technical convergence signal. [ev_conv_39c96493] [ev_conv_98d1b8d0] [ev_conv_99d45277]

• As of 2026-09-01, AAPL's Street split is 22 buy / 15 hold / 3 sell, versus 41 buy / 5 hold / 0 sell for MSFT and 43 buy / 7 hold / 0 sell for GOOGL. [ev_rec_a4ef7357] [ev_rec_db78444b] [ev_rec_71e22c83]

• Microsoft is scheduled to report earnings on 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_e1c08ce8]

• Alphabet is scheduled to report earnings on 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_876c6eca]

• Apple is scheduled to report earnings on 2026-10-28. [ev_earn_9d8d729c]

By the numbers

• metric: Overnight last prices

• value: AAPL $339.75 (+0.23%); MSFT $498.00 (-0.72%); GOOGL $351.16 (-1.07%)

• comparison: mixed, modest tape; GOOGL's -1.07% was the widest swing of the three

• period: overnight into 2026-09-23 pre-market

• AAPL last traded at $339.75, up 0.23% overnight. [ev_quote_39aeb32d]

• MSFT last traded at $498.00, down 0.72% overnight. [ev_quote_305eed7b]

• GOOGL last traded at $351.16, down 1.07% overnight. [ev_quote_4c3e7db3]

• GOOGL's -1.07% overnight move was the largest percentage swing among AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT. [ev_quote_4c3e7db3] [ev_quote_305eed7b] [ev_quote_39aeb32d]

• AAPL was the only one of AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT to print a positive overnight change. [ev_quote_39aeb32d] [ev_quote_305eed7b] [ev_quote_4c3e7db3]

What to watch

• trigger: Late-October earnings cluster: MSFT and GOOGL on Oct 27, AAPL on Oct 28

• metric: EPS vs consensus

• timeframe: 2026-10-27 to 2026-10-28

• Microsoft is scheduled to report earnings on 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_e1c08ce8]

• Alphabet is scheduled to report earnings on 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_876c6eca]

• Apple is scheduled to report earnings on 2026-10-28. [ev_earn_9d8d729c]

• MSFT, GOOGL, and AAPL are scheduled to report earnings within two calendar days of each other on October 27–28, 2026. [ev_earn_e1c08ce8] [ev_earn_876c6eca] [ev_earn_9d8d729c]

By the numbers

• metric: calibrated_p_up_5d

• value: 0.360 (AAPL), 0.597 (GOOGL), 0.351 (MSFT)

• comparison: GOOGL > AAPL, MSFT

• period: 5-day forward

• AAPL has delivered mixed EPS surprises over the past four quarters, with a +114 bps beat in Dec 2025 followed by a -17 bps miss in Jun 2026, indicating deteriorating earnings momentum. [ev_fundamentals_7dde879a]

• AAPL's calibrated 5-day up probability of 0.360 is below the base rate of 0.681, suggesting the model assigns below-baseline odds to near-term price appreciation. [ev_fundamentals_3761b60c]

• GOOGL shows the widest dispersion in recent EPS surprises: a +704 bps beat in Sep 2025 followed by -85 bps and -130 bps misses in the two most recent quarters, reflecting high earnings volatility. [ev_fundamentals_29ae5508]

• GOOGL's calibrated 5-day up probability of 0.597 exceeds its base rate of 0.513, indicating the model assigns above-baseline odds to near-term price appreciation. [ev_fundamentals_4e7efc0a]

• MSFT has delivered consistent positive EPS surprises across all four most recent quarters, ranging from +106 bps to +413 bps, with the largest beat in Jun 2026. [ev_fundamentals_db37a45d]

• MSFT's calibrated 5-day up probability of 0.351 is below its base rate of 0.540, suggesting the model assigns below-baseline odds to near-term price appreciation despite consistent earnings outperformance. [ev_fundamentals_42b74a97]

Sources

• [ev_conv_99d45277] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:MSFT
• [ev_conv_39c96493] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:AAPL
• [ev_conv_98d1b8d0] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:GOOGL
• [ev_quote_305eed7b] market_quote — market data:quote:MSFT
• [ev_quote_39aeb32d] market_quote — market data:quote:AAPL
• [ev_quote_4c3e7db3] market_quote — market data:quote:GOOGL
• [ev_cov_456dc948] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:a3a10644-e240-4d73-9b64-07e7eb2710d8
• [ev_cov_0019dce9] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:c3ec2638-c9f2-41a0-9bdc-d9e9995b3c7a
• [ev_cov_7bf7571f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:29d8204e-4e7e-44b7-ba3d-25b8ed5977fd
• [ev_cov_78eb4ea4] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:dd315b71-4272-42b3-8747-1cc0ee474bcb
• [ev_cov_d68b45e8] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:53c065c0-a89f-4fbc-9c75-6000961bee50
• [ev_cov_3959ab47] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:96d9775b-6e6d-4bfa-bff5-2cff1d63bd7a
• [ev_cov_6be35a49] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:427bb074-9111-422f-aab1-9a6405977c73
• [ev_cov_70c0b71d] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:036bce5b-ecbd-4b7a-b403-dfb4079be022
• [ev_cov_d3d17d78] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:799e87fc-ad00-474d-9758-a2dc3c2cf6ae
• [ev_cov_b1134bca] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:98823963-9bbb-4690-aed5-598f1da75ba5
• [ev_cov_9cae942d] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:cbf8609d-b1fc-416c-adee-60a2e2b9c2b6
• [ev_cov_e2acbf2c] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9cffb451-c51c-484b-9d7b-3370a881c09a
• [ev_cov_c8aba307] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0b64e48a-73f0-4d6f-bebf-78bd777ca834
• [ev_cov_df1be404] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9c826064-2755-4b18-809e-1f8dbf092055
• [ev_cov_c0dcaeab] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:1b057e19-37df-4344-a691-df9c4b12366c
• [ev_cov_26101251] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:6f45445c-7dd9-43f7-8303-b7b76a50d90a
• [ev_cov_634e3b35] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:2ff1bbd8-e68b-4192-b59b-45f5270fc031
• [ev_cov_f0bc1ddf] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:f80ac6c0-1bf6-4210-a9c0-3c224bf9bbc3
• [ev_cov_95df37c8] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:978d2b1a-b826-4fe1-bd52-1afe646661e2
• [ev_cov_348bf53f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3ecb0fe2-51f3-4472-b3db-aa871b4a2e5b
• [ev_cov_8d1a0f02] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:cc6cb418-2587-4513-96ad-7242b5c8bb85
• [ev_cov_56f5a3f1] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0135497a-8448-4b0a-8c55-47e013c16607
• [ev_cov_0d630b86] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:2fbb9b6f-6d06-482b-a27f-8f656d63ecb2
• [ev_cov_e7d0e290] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:71bbcc97-a7c4-476f-8118-097a511abb76
• [ev_cov_4e3d276e] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:da91a3bf-68fe-4a22-869a-494cb6bfdc37
• [ev_cov_570d63de] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:28205256-eb7f-409e-9967-afeaf145225b
• [ev_cov_0dc22027] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ea818bf7-d7b6-4a62-a521-4082f94e08bb
• [ev_cov_cab4f234] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:70d914a5-b74d-4ffb-87db-02779805aac8
• [ev_cov_d856747c] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:114fcb90-ced3-4f1c-bd29-59fbc61733d2
• [ev_cov_ea16b387] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0dea4c6e-f3a0-44c0-a99f-0257ecd9ac28
• [ev_cov_2a1d03d2] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:8da79f89-fc92-47b6-b461-54504b3b9959
• [ev_cov_31d505c6] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ab6010fa-1077-4f25-ab7b-61cd5bcfa251
• [ev_cov_ba99ed68] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aec66cd1-8415-4fcb-bc88-443cd97baf50
• [ev_cov_359ae2fa] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aaca6340-5b8f-469c-a705-180b5eaaeed4
• [ev_cov_2a360a19] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4933044b-3f2d-4659-ace1-093987748e66
• [ev_cov_66034f12] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:e9792545-5aa8-41bd-840b-da72e4ea0523
• [ev_cov_640cca40] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7ff9ef16-ebcb-4ecd-bc6f-c0b90f19c39f
• [ev_cov_3db7c4b8] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0e4f5a74-b6fc-4458-9fdc-a5fc0e61c515
• [ev_cov_c6ba5a30] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:194985d4-5698-4529-a8b5-d77eb8962804
• [ev_cov_f5f545af] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7d859949-c025-4d08-9194-c0791a95293a
• [ev_cov_b3e124c2] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3b293610-9791-4798-a878-681cd86c1177
• [ev_cov_95f42ab7] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4bbaf75c-6654-438c-8970-9bd835dd3036
• [ev_cov_642b0531] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:75022657-1f17-41db-8512-887d99a3e7a0
• [ev_cov_7b3cb1e9] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9b58ec54-d5b0-4da4-b0e0-bbafa8fd19ae
• [ev_cov_9fdca5ac] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:fc23c39c-1d62-499c-9229-cda1be1b5415
• [ev_cov_6b8f0264] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:c242f61f-acaa-43b6-8658-c9e07d615da4
• [ev_profile_2564daf5] company_profile — market data:profile:MSFT
• [ev_rec_db78444b] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:MSFT
• [ev_profile_265ad76f] company_profile — market data:profile:AAPL
• [ev_rec_a4ef7357] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:AAPL
• [ev_earn_e1c08ce8] earnings_date — market data:earnings:MSFT
• [ev_earn_9d8d729c] earnings_date — market data:earnings:AAPL
• [ev_profile_b17ad06e] company_profile — market data:profile:GOOGL
• [ev_rec_71e22c83] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:GOOGL
• [ev_earn_876c6eca] earnings_date — market data:earnings:GOOGL
• [ev_news_e28451e3] news_headline — https://www.trefis.com/stock/aapl/articles/616009/is-apple-stocks-shrinking-share-count-worth-paying-up-for-near-the-highs/2026-09-21
• [ev_news_6aa84a8b] news_headline — https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/21/at-336-apple-is-expensive-or-is-it
• [ev_news_ddba3209] news_headline — https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/261955127-apple-stock-forecast-apple-posted-111-2b-revenue-so-why-did-aapl-fall-after-wwdc-tradingkey
• [ev_news_c76e684d] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/tech/nasdaq-aapl/apple/news/apple-aapl-stock-could-look-31-overvalued-on-new-health-devi
• [ev_news_fd07cd0d] news_headline — https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/technicals/26/09/61931124/stock-of-the-day-is-apple-breaking-out
• [ev_news_2d9c966b] news_headline — https://es.tradingview.com/news/stocktwits:79f4127aa094b:0-why-did-aapl-okta-amd-stocks-jump-to-52-week-highs-today
• [ev_news_3ac27ec5] news_headline — https://www.investors.com/research/breakout-stocks-technical-analysis/garmin-stock-apple-watch-rival-buy-range
• [ev_news_1283a16e] news_headline — https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/21/the-tech-selloff-is-only-strengthening-my-belief-in-alphabet
• [ev_news_8d46ea49] news_headline — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/alphabet-googl-stock-may-bargain-011402689.html
• [ev_news_b1846ae4] news_headline — https://www.chartmill.com/news/EQIX/Chartmill-55105-Cloud-Infrastructure-Earnings-Put-AI-Spending-and-Premium-Valuations-to-the-Test
• [ev_news_3128a968] news_headline — https://www.investors.com/research/best-stocks-seven-magnificent-stocks-earnings-growth
• [ev_news_228a3f7c] news_headline — https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/stocks/17494/next-week-earnings-calendar-stocks
• [ev_news_e62249ef] news_headline — https://stockstory.org/us/stocks/nasdaq/mlkn/news/earnings/millerknoll-mlkn-q3-earnings-report-preview-what-to-look-for-2
• [ev_news_2d8444cd] news_headline — https://www.cnn.com/markets/stocks/NVDA
• [ev_news_c4e7b5f6] news_headline — https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:b6100fac9094b:0-these-magnificent-seven-members-still-look-cheap
• [ev_news_5d93517b] news_headline — https://www.chartmill.com/stock/quote/MSFT/news
• [ev_news_8b4b1c8d] news_headline — https://www.gurufocus.com/news/9089582/msft-dcf-analysis-intrinsic-value-527-vs-price-494
• [ev_news_ab62e202] news_headline — https://www.tradingview.com/news/stocktwits:4539a806b094b:0-msft-stock-redburn-raises-target-to-440-as-ai-safety-spending-debate-continues
• [ev_news_71fa3112] news_headline — https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:a539b4e2f094b:0-3-reasons-to-hold-microsoft-stock-after-a-31-2-surge-in-3-months
• [ev_news_bef44117] news_headline — https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/21/azure-ai-capex-and-what-to-expect-out-of-microsoft-through-the-end-of-2026
• [ev_fundamentals_7dde879a] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_3761b60c] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_29ae5508] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_4e7efc0a] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_db37a45d] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:MSFT
• [ev_fundamentals_42b74a97] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:MSFT