Compiled by the machine desk — no human review before publication. Analytics, not advice.

Machine desk record: 74 claims graded, 59% held up.

Daily Tape — 2026-09-22: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT

Tickers: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT Valid from: 2026-09-22T10:09:40.337011+00:00

Thesis

• statement: AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT stay at standing neutral. Score-1 convergence and a quiet overnight bid are not a re-rate; Street buy-side majorities remain a backdrop, not a trigger, until late-October earnings.

• frame: Standing neutral — wait for October prints

• why_now: Pre-market 2026-09-22 continues yesterday's Daily Tape on the same three names: overnight moves of +0.85% (AAPL), +1.55% (GOOGL), and +1.59% (MSFT) arrived without a catalyst, so conviction does not change.

• AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT each carry a convergence signal scored at 1 as of this session. [ev_conv_0de57d94] [ev_conv_7fdd517a] [ev_conv_c451b748]

• Overnight price changes were modest: AAPL +0.85% to $338.98, GOOGL +1.55% to $354.97, and MSFT +1.59% to $501.61. [ev_quote_cff0cf52] [ev_quote_b52b3099] [ev_quote_4c20f813]

• As of the 2026-09-01 snapshot, Street recommendations are net-buy across the tape: AAPL 22 buy / 15 hold / 3 sell, GOOGL 43 buy / 7 hold / 0 sell, and MSFT 41 buy / 5 hold / 0 sell. [ev_rec_38bda7be] [ev_rec_936b7262] [ev_rec_584e4537]

• AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT were the same three names on the 2026-09-21 Daily Tape, indicating continuity of coverage rather than a new setup. [ev_cov_f8ff8988]

• The next scheduled prints are clustered more than a month out: MSFT and GOOGL on 2026-10-27, AAPL on 2026-10-28. [ev_earn_74e3ae64] [ev_earn_7192966d] [ev_earn_cb8f021e]

By the numbers

• metric: Overnight last vs prior close

• value: AAPL $338.98 (+0.85%); GOOGL $354.97 (+1.55%); MSFT $501.61 (+1.59%)

• comparison: Street recs as of 2026-09-01: AAPL 22B/15H/3S; GOOGL 43B/7H/0S; MSFT 41B/5H/0S

• period: pre-market 2026-09-22

• AAPL last printed $338.98, up 0.85% overnight. [ev_quote_cff0cf52]

• GOOGL last printed $354.97, up 1.55% overnight. [ev_quote_b52b3099]

• MSFT last printed $501.61, up 1.59% overnight. [ev_quote_4c20f813]

• As of 2026-09-01, AAPL carried 22 buy, 15 hold, and 3 sell analyst recommendations. [ev_rec_38bda7be]

• As of 2026-09-01, GOOGL carried 43 buy, 7 hold, and 0 sell analyst recommendations. [ev_rec_936b7262]

• As of 2026-09-01, MSFT carried 41 buy, 5 hold, and 0 sell analyst recommendations. [ev_rec_584e4537]

What to watch

• trigger: GOOGL and MSFT earnings on 2026-10-27; AAPL earnings on 2026-10-28

• metric: EPS and revenue versus consensus

• timeframe: 2026-10-27 to 2026-10-28

• Alphabet will report quarterly earnings on 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_7192966d]

• Microsoft will report quarterly earnings on 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_74e3ae64]

• Apple will report quarterly earnings on 2026-10-28. [ev_earn_cb8f021e]

• The next earnings prints for AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT cluster within a two-day window on 2026-10-27 and 2026-10-28. [ev_earn_cb8f021e] [ev_earn_74e3ae64] [ev_earn_7192966d]

By the numbers

• metric: calibrated_p_up_5d

• value: 0.35–0.40

• comparison: all three names cluster in narrow band

• period: 5-day forward

• MSFT has delivered positive EPS surprises in all four most recent quarters (Q3 2025 +0.39, Q4 2025 +0.11, Q1 2026 +0.13, Q2 2026 +0.41), with the most recent beat of +0.41 substantially above the 4-quarter mean of +0.22. [ev_fundamentals_e705aee3]

• AAPL has mixed recent EPS surprise history: two beats (+0.04 in Q3 2025, +0.02 in Q1 2026) and two misses (-0.02 in Q2 2026, with Q4 2025 showing +0.11), averaging +0.03 over the 4-quarter window. [ev_fundamentals_13052cd2]

• GOOGL has deteriorated in recent quarters: two consecutive misses in Q1 2026 (-0.09) and Q2 2026 (-0.13), following a large beat in Q3 2025 (+0.70), with 4-quarter average of +0.16. [ev_fundamentals_cbee1f63]

• Calibrated 5-day forward probability of price appreciation is nearly identical across all three names: AAPL 0.352, GOOGL 0.401, MSFT 0.400, suggesting no material directional edge from fundamentals alone over a 5-day horizon. [ev_fundamentals_592db30e] [ev_fundamentals_c100faf6] [ev_fundamentals_91ea2606]

Sources

• [ev_conv_c451b748] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:MSFT
• [ev_conv_0de57d94] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:AAPL
• [ev_conv_7fdd517a] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:GOOGL
• [ev_quote_b52b3099] market_quote — market data:quote:GOOGL
• [ev_quote_4c20f813] market_quote — market data:quote:MSFT
• [ev_quote_cff0cf52] market_quote — market data:quote:AAPL
• [ev_cov_f8ff8988] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:c3ec2638-c9f2-41a0-9bdc-d9e9995b3c7a
• [ev_cov_9e15921f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:29d8204e-4e7e-44b7-ba3d-25b8ed5977fd
• [ev_cov_2ef84b20] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:dd315b71-4272-42b3-8747-1cc0ee474bcb
• [ev_cov_8d3647d3] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:53c065c0-a89f-4fbc-9c75-6000961bee50
• [ev_cov_e93138aa] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:96d9775b-6e6d-4bfa-bff5-2cff1d63bd7a
• [ev_cov_af9090b7] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:427bb074-9111-422f-aab1-9a6405977c73
• [ev_cov_0ccab32b] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:036bce5b-ecbd-4b7a-b403-dfb4079be022
• [ev_cov_c3e5fbcf] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:799e87fc-ad00-474d-9758-a2dc3c2cf6ae
• [ev_cov_a0697d3b] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:98823963-9bbb-4690-aed5-598f1da75ba5
• [ev_cov_f15a9855] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:cbf8609d-b1fc-416c-adee-60a2e2b9c2b6
• [ev_cov_bfcc1fc5] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9cffb451-c51c-484b-9d7b-3370a881c09a
• [ev_cov_13508e52] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0b64e48a-73f0-4d6f-bebf-78bd777ca834
• [ev_cov_1c5d639c] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9c826064-2755-4b18-809e-1f8dbf092055
• [ev_cov_1cd8fc8e] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:1b057e19-37df-4344-a691-df9c4b12366c
• [ev_cov_5fa7a8cc] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:6f45445c-7dd9-43f7-8303-b7b76a50d90a
• [ev_cov_d8ab5eed] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:2ff1bbd8-e68b-4192-b59b-45f5270fc031
• [ev_cov_434efac3] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:f80ac6c0-1bf6-4210-a9c0-3c224bf9bbc3
• [ev_cov_072f6c31] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:978d2b1a-b826-4fe1-bd52-1afe646661e2
• [ev_cov_4bf382d2] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3ecb0fe2-51f3-4472-b3db-aa871b4a2e5b
• [ev_cov_d4aa87c3] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:cc6cb418-2587-4513-96ad-7242b5c8bb85
• [ev_cov_89fd91fa] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0135497a-8448-4b0a-8c55-47e013c16607
• [ev_cov_7ca72985] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:2fbb9b6f-6d06-482b-a27f-8f656d63ecb2
• [ev_cov_0b956c7f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:71bbcc97-a7c4-476f-8118-097a511abb76
• [ev_cov_b55e45a4] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:da91a3bf-68fe-4a22-869a-494cb6bfdc37
• [ev_cov_affdec36] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:28205256-eb7f-409e-9967-afeaf145225b
• [ev_cov_1ff2e6a4] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ea818bf7-d7b6-4a62-a521-4082f94e08bb
• [ev_cov_52dc4a97] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:70d914a5-b74d-4ffb-87db-02779805aac8
• [ev_cov_47df0a65] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:114fcb90-ced3-4f1c-bd29-59fbc61733d2
• [ev_cov_3aa36bf0] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0dea4c6e-f3a0-44c0-a99f-0257ecd9ac28
• [ev_cov_cfe6bc85] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:8da79f89-fc92-47b6-b461-54504b3b9959
• [ev_cov_03878cdf] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ab6010fa-1077-4f25-ab7b-61cd5bcfa251
• [ev_cov_43e917a0] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aec66cd1-8415-4fcb-bc88-443cd97baf50
• [ev_cov_978bc7fd] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aaca6340-5b8f-469c-a705-180b5eaaeed4
• [ev_cov_a2962ac8] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4933044b-3f2d-4659-ace1-093987748e66
• [ev_cov_2c8c98d4] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:e9792545-5aa8-41bd-840b-da72e4ea0523
• [ev_cov_7f0a6fb6] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7ff9ef16-ebcb-4ecd-bc6f-c0b90f19c39f
• [ev_cov_698a78de] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0e4f5a74-b6fc-4458-9fdc-a5fc0e61c515
• [ev_cov_784247b1] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:194985d4-5698-4529-a8b5-d77eb8962804
• [ev_cov_a52f51a8] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7d859949-c025-4d08-9194-c0791a95293a
• [ev_cov_7776d5bc] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3b293610-9791-4798-a878-681cd86c1177
• [ev_cov_edbcd5ba] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4bbaf75c-6654-438c-8970-9bd835dd3036
• [ev_cov_abf2033e] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:75022657-1f17-41db-8512-887d99a3e7a0
• [ev_cov_4973f9ca] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9b58ec54-d5b0-4da4-b0e0-bbafa8fd19ae
• [ev_cov_f652dc58] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:fc23c39c-1d62-499c-9229-cda1be1b5415
• [ev_cov_5e873527] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:c242f61f-acaa-43b6-8658-c9e07d615da4
• [ev_profile_010e60fa] company_profile — market data:profile:AAPL
• [ev_rec_38bda7be] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:AAPL
• [ev_profile_c6dd9ab6] company_profile — market data:profile:MSFT
• [ev_rec_584e4537] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:MSFT
• [ev_profile_dc46a984] company_profile — market data:profile:GOOGL
• [ev_rec_936b7262] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:GOOGL
• [ev_earn_cb8f021e] earnings_date — market data:earnings:AAPL
• [ev_earn_74e3ae64] earnings_date — market data:earnings:MSFT
• [ev_earn_7192966d] earnings_date — market data:earnings:GOOGL
• [ev_news_dddb88a6] news_headline — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/apple-aapl-outperforms-broader-market-214506898.html
• [ev_news_faa5bdef] news_headline — https://www.trefis.com/stock/aapl/articles/616009/is-apple-stocks-shrinking-share-count-worth-paying-up-for-near-the-highs/2026-09-21
• [ev_news_6f4a40ec] news_headline — https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:681e13251094b:0-apple-tv-s-emmy-sweep-adds-momentum-to-aapl-s-services-business
• [ev_news_91fbac1d] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/tech/nasdaq-aapl/apple/news/apple-aapl-stock-could-look-31-overvalued-on-new-health-devi/amp
• [ev_news_a767d670] news_headline — https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/21/at-336-apple-is-expensive-or-is-it
• [ev_news_a4ceec66] news_headline — https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:b6100fac9094b:0-these-magnificent-seven-members-still-look-cheap
• [ev_news_6056e66f] news_headline — https://www.gurufocus.com/news/9089582/msft-dcf-analysis-intrinsic-value-527-vs-price-494
• [ev_news_605bda76] news_headline — https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:a539b4e2f094b:0-3-reasons-to-hold-microsoft-stock-after-a-31-2-surge-in-3-months
• [ev_news_42362fad] news_headline — https://www.chartmill.com/news/MSFT/Chartmill-55097-Microsoft-NASDAQMSFT-Dividend-Quality-Backs-Income-Investors
• [ev_news_37b8ea02] news_headline — https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/21/azure-ai-capex-and-what-to-expect-out-of-microsoft-through-the-end-of-2026
• [ev_news_154d2b19] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nasdaq-googl/alphabet/future
• [ev_news_e37e4f14] news_headline — https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:d42aa68ce094b:0-googl-down-7-in-the-past-3-months-buy-sell-or-hold-the-stock
• [ev_news_a1ddd980] news_headline — https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/21/the-tech-selloff-is-only-strengthening-my-belief-in-alphabet
• [ev_news_cf5e79ef] news_headline — https://www.chartmill.com/news/GOOG/Chartmill-55022-SP-500-Premarket-Gainers-for-Today-MSI-GOOGL-GOOG-HOOD
• [ev_news_3c7f32ce] news_headline — https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/stocks/17494/next-week-earnings-calendar-stocks
• [ev_fundamentals_13052cd2] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_592db30e] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_cbee1f63] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_c100faf6] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_e705aee3] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:MSFT
• [ev_fundamentals_91ea2606] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:MSFT