Compiled by the machine desk — no human review before publication. Analytics, not advice.

Machine desk record: 81 claims graded, 58% held up.

Daily Tape — 2026-09-28: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT

Tickers: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT Valid from: 2026-09-28T10:07:11.072626+00:00

By the numbers

• metric: Overnight price change

• value: MSFT +3.66% to $516.17

• comparison: AAPL +1.53% to $341.07; GOOGL +0.46% to $343.92 — all three green

• period: into 2026-09-28 pre-market

• Microsoft last traded at $516.17, up 3.66% overnight, the largest move among AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT on the tape. [ev_quote_c8042944] [ev_quote_c90612fc] [ev_quote_1000daf1]

• Apple last traded at $341.07, up 1.53% overnight. [ev_quote_c90612fc]

• Alphabet last traded at $343.92, up 0.46% overnight. [ev_quote_1000daf1]

• AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT are each printing a convergence signal (score 1) on the same session. [ev_conv_49367d31] [ev_conv_6c8c0e58] [ev_conv_58aae930]

• Microsoft's last print of $516.17 sits above the $500 level that Sep 23 coverage said the stock could not hold. [ev_quote_c8042944] [ev_news_7d5e253f]

Thesis

• statement: Neutral remains the standing view on AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT. Street books are constructive — AAPL 22 buy / 15 hold / 3 sell, GOOGL 43 buy / 7 hold / 0 sell, MSFT 41 buy / 5 hold / 0 sell as of 2026-09-01 — but overnight strength without a fundamental reset does not justify an upgrade before late-October earnings.

• frame: Standing Neutral; Street constructive, no upgrade

• why_now: A coordinated overnight bid (AAPL +1.53% to $341.07, GOOGL +0.46% to $343.92, MSFT +3.66% to $516.17) arrived with no material catalyst; the next scheduled inflection is earnings on 2026-10-27 (MSFT, GOOGL) and 2026-10-28 (AAPL).

• As of the 2026-09-01 analyst snapshot, AAPL carried 22 buy, 15 hold, and 3 sell recommendations. [ev_rec_dae49742]

• As of the 2026-09-01 analyst snapshot, GOOGL carried 43 buy, 7 hold, and 0 sell recommendations. [ev_rec_46848c06]

• As of the 2026-09-01 analyst snapshot, MSFT carried 41 buy, 5 hold, and 0 sell recommendations. [ev_rec_eb5aecb9]

• The next scheduled earnings prints are 2026-10-27 for MSFT and GOOGL and 2026-10-28 for AAPL. [ev_earn_69a987fe] [ev_earn_c3fae945] [ev_earn_34094d40]

• Last quotes show AAPL at $341.07 (+1.53%), GOOGL at $343.92 (+0.46%), and MSFT at $516.17 (+3.66%). [ev_quote_c90612fc] [ev_quote_1000daf1] [ev_quote_c8042944]

What to watch

• trigger: MSFT and GOOGL report earnings 2026-10-27; AAPL reports 2026-10-28

• metric: EPS versus consensus

• timeframe: 2026-10-27 to 2026-10-28

• Microsoft is scheduled to report fiscal first-quarter earnings on 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_69a987fe]

• Alphabet is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings on 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_c3fae945]

• Apple is scheduled to report fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on 2026-10-28. [ev_earn_34094d40]

• Microsoft and Alphabet both report on 2026-10-27, one session before Apple's 2026-10-28 print. [ev_earn_69a987fe] [ev_earn_c3fae945] [ev_earn_34094d40]

By the numbers

• metric: calibrated_p_up_5d

• value: 0.389 (AAPL), 0.646 (GOOGL), 0.361 (MSFT)

• comparison: GOOGL > AAPL > MSFT

• period: 5-day forward

• AAPL has delivered positive EPS surprises in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with the most recent surprise (Q2 2026) being slightly negative at -0.0171 EPS. [ev_fundamentals_a992d30d]

• AAPL's calibrated 5-day up probability is 0.389, below its historical base rate of 0.670, indicating current conditions are less favorable for near-term upside than the long-run average. [ev_fundamentals_ec11aedd]

• GOOGL has missed EPS estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters (Q2 and Q1 2026), but beat significantly in Q3 2025 (+0.7046 surprise). [ev_fundamentals_e882ed25]

• GOOGL's calibrated 5-day up probability of 0.646 is materially higher than both AAPL (0.389) and MSFT (0.361), and above its own historical base rate of 0.482. [ev_fundamentals_484d6147]

• MSFT has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with the largest surprise in Q3 2025 (+0.3909 EPS). [ev_fundamentals_e952109d]

• MSFT's calibrated 5-day up probability is 0.361, below its historical base rate of 0.536, indicating current conditions are less favorable for near-term upside despite consistent earnings beats. [ev_fundamentals_9cc37ba8]

Sources

• [ev_conv_58aae930] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:MSFT
• [ev_conv_49367d31] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:AAPL
• [ev_conv_6c8c0e58] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:GOOGL
• [ev_quote_1000daf1] market_quote — market data:quote:GOOGL
• [ev_quote_c8042944] market_quote — market data:quote:MSFT
• [ev_quote_c90612fc] market_quote — market data:quote:AAPL
• [ev_cov_caf3e876] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:30ac8e5b-ccd7-4aae-8847-ef049cb55dca
• [ev_cov_fe3b2e3b] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:137bc5cf-7a5a-4cf1-97c9-2cb52d3f67bb
• [ev_cov_c71cea63] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:2e8a93d6-a99c-48d1-a7cb-fe8daaa35c1c
• [ev_cov_0c8d2a04] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:36dd267a-85ad-43fb-a28b-6de90f6e589d
• [ev_cov_f3450333] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:a3a10644-e240-4d73-9b64-07e7eb2710d8
• [ev_cov_c7447497] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:c3ec2638-c9f2-41a0-9bdc-d9e9995b3c7a
• [ev_cov_ea22dfca] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:29d8204e-4e7e-44b7-ba3d-25b8ed5977fd
• [ev_cov_7d859d3d] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:dd315b71-4272-42b3-8747-1cc0ee474bcb
• [ev_cov_b6655679] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:53c065c0-a89f-4fbc-9c75-6000961bee50
• [ev_cov_057fdeea] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:96d9775b-6e6d-4bfa-bff5-2cff1d63bd7a
• [ev_cov_e38f48d7] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:427bb074-9111-422f-aab1-9a6405977c73
• [ev_cov_9e0b6b0d] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:036bce5b-ecbd-4b7a-b403-dfb4079be022
• [ev_cov_f78d2baf] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:799e87fc-ad00-474d-9758-a2dc3c2cf6ae
• [ev_cov_53b742d1] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:98823963-9bbb-4690-aed5-598f1da75ba5
• [ev_cov_f0ba62ac] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:cbf8609d-b1fc-416c-adee-60a2e2b9c2b6
• [ev_cov_72fce134] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9cffb451-c51c-484b-9d7b-3370a881c09a
• [ev_cov_23c2f9d5] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0b64e48a-73f0-4d6f-bebf-78bd777ca834
• [ev_cov_69cceac0] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9c826064-2755-4b18-809e-1f8dbf092055
• [ev_cov_c2f3729d] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:1b057e19-37df-4344-a691-df9c4b12366c
• [ev_cov_e8cabc44] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:6f45445c-7dd9-43f7-8303-b7b76a50d90a
• [ev_cov_489881f6] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:2ff1bbd8-e68b-4192-b59b-45f5270fc031
• [ev_cov_d59f7bdf] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:f80ac6c0-1bf6-4210-a9c0-3c224bf9bbc3
• [ev_cov_9bc909b7] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:978d2b1a-b826-4fe1-bd52-1afe646661e2
• [ev_cov_b08c2cb7] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3ecb0fe2-51f3-4472-b3db-aa871b4a2e5b
• [ev_cov_c7ec298a] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:cc6cb418-2587-4513-96ad-7242b5c8bb85
• [ev_cov_0ef9a6a9] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0135497a-8448-4b0a-8c55-47e013c16607
• [ev_cov_70269564] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:2fbb9b6f-6d06-482b-a27f-8f656d63ecb2
• [ev_cov_e5f3726c] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:71bbcc97-a7c4-476f-8118-097a511abb76
• [ev_cov_62c0746d] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:da91a3bf-68fe-4a22-869a-494cb6bfdc37
• [ev_cov_5cbd7801] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:28205256-eb7f-409e-9967-afeaf145225b
• [ev_cov_25f12b51] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ea818bf7-d7b6-4a62-a521-4082f94e08bb
• [ev_cov_981b14bc] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:70d914a5-b74d-4ffb-87db-02779805aac8
• [ev_cov_12d86197] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:114fcb90-ced3-4f1c-bd29-59fbc61733d2
• [ev_cov_dbe695aa] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0dea4c6e-f3a0-44c0-a99f-0257ecd9ac28
• [ev_cov_400691d4] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:8da79f89-fc92-47b6-b461-54504b3b9959
• [ev_cov_63544454] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ab6010fa-1077-4f25-ab7b-61cd5bcfa251
• [ev_cov_e861caa2] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aec66cd1-8415-4fcb-bc88-443cd97baf50
• [ev_cov_f7f510a6] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aaca6340-5b8f-469c-a705-180b5eaaeed4
• [ev_cov_0b23936b] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4933044b-3f2d-4659-ace1-093987748e66
• [ev_cov_865d5f70] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:e9792545-5aa8-41bd-840b-da72e4ea0523
• [ev_cov_c8488950] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7ff9ef16-ebcb-4ecd-bc6f-c0b90f19c39f
• [ev_cov_98746589] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0e4f5a74-b6fc-4458-9fdc-a5fc0e61c515
• [ev_cov_d9160067] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:194985d4-5698-4529-a8b5-d77eb8962804
• [ev_cov_74c49bef] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7d859949-c025-4d08-9194-c0791a95293a
• [ev_cov_9a1c4767] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3b293610-9791-4798-a878-681cd86c1177
• [ev_cov_f0ced18c] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4bbaf75c-6654-438c-8970-9bd835dd3036
• [ev_cov_d1e77724] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:75022657-1f17-41db-8512-887d99a3e7a0
• [ev_cov_a26bda82] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9b58ec54-d5b0-4da4-b0e0-bbafa8fd19ae
• [ev_cov_a4c1d1fb] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:fc23c39c-1d62-499c-9229-cda1be1b5415
• [ev_cov_2b646a72] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:c242f61f-acaa-43b6-8658-c9e07d615da4
• [ev_profile_f9bb60f1] company_profile — market data:profile:AAPL
• [ev_rec_dae49742] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:AAPL
• [ev_profile_fe13400f] company_profile — market data:profile:MSFT
• [ev_rec_eb5aecb9] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:MSFT
• [ev_profile_2f1f5dd6] company_profile — market data:profile:GOOGL
• [ev_rec_46848c06] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:GOOGL
• [ev_earn_34094d40] earnings_date — market data:earnings:AAPL
• [ev_earn_69a987fe] earnings_date — market data:earnings:MSFT
• [ev_earn_c3fae945] earnings_date — market data:earnings:GOOGL
• [ev_news_7d0f4eba] news_headline — https://stockinvest.us/stock/AAPL
• [ev_news_7911ad73] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/tech/nasdaq-aapl/apple/news/apple-aapl-stock-could-be-overvalued-on-fresh-health-app-hop/amp
• [ev_news_cb68e627] news_headline — https://www.chartmill.com/news/AAPL/Chartmill-55345-Apple-NASDAQAAPL-Stands-Out-as-a-Quality-Investing-Candidate-Despite-Premium-Valuation
• [ev_news_f40a7070] news_headline — https://www.tikr.com/blog/apple-stock-is-up-34-over-the-past-year-can-the-iphone-18-keep-the-rally-going
• [ev_news_e91ab76c] news_headline — https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:6d4f8be7b094b:0-alphabet-vs-apple-which-consumer-ai-tech-stock-has-an-edge-now
• [ev_news_2df82189] news_headline — https://eciks.org/28171-msft-stock-what-to-watch
• [ev_news_b79914db] news_headline — https://www.barchart.com/story/news/4799082/why-its-time-to-load-up-on-microsoft-stock
• [ev_news_7d5e253f] news_headline — https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/23/microsoft-cant-hold-500-while-the-nasdaq-hits-a-record-whats-going-on
• [ev_news_167abd1d] news_headline — https://seekingalpha.com/article/4949206-microsoft-buy-this-early-recovery
• [ev_news_96391d19] news_headline — https://www.chartmill.com/stock/quote/CRM/news
• [ev_news_380e934c] news_headline — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/why-alphabet-googl-stock-down-212205277.html
• [ev_news_cc0b02b8] news_headline — https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262008961-alphabet-googl-stock-price-forecast-2026-google-cloud-tradingkey
• [ev_news_0fad37b9] news_headline — https://tech-insider.org/meta-vs-google-stock-2026
• [ev_news_9f58893b] news_headline — https://www.tikr.com/blog/alphabet-stock-dips-after-a-e403-million-fine-why-google-cloud-still-drives-the-story
• [ev_news_6e0df14c] news_headline — https://es.tradingview.com/news/zacks:c8e2fdefe094b:0-what-will-the-q3-earnings-season-show
• [ev_news_346023b4] news_headline — https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/general-mills-earnings-analysis-questions-answered-and-next-catalysts-93CH-4913616
• [ev_news_6c0eea5f] news_headline — https://seekingalpha.com/article/4949261-alphabet-something-big-is-coming
• [ev_fundamentals_a992d30d] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_ec11aedd] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_e882ed25] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_484d6147] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_e952109d] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:MSFT
• [ev_fundamentals_9cc37ba8] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:MSFT