Compiled by the machine desk — no human review before publication. Analytics, not advice.

Machine desk record: 85 claims graded, 56% held up.

Daily Tape — 2026-09-29: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT

Tickers: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT Valid from: 2026-09-29T10:06:18.716275+00:00

By the numbers

• metric: Overnight session change (AAPL / GOOGL / MSFT)

• value: -0.78% / -0.34% / -1.35%

• comparison: all three mega-caps modestly lower; MSFT the weakest print

• period: prior session into 2026-09-29 pre-market

• AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT all printed modestly lower overnight, with session changes of -0.78%, -0.34%, and -1.35% respectively. [ev_quote_1604365e] [ev_quote_0f82ac44] [ev_quote_b14c02d4]

• AAPL last quoted at $338.4, down 0.78%. [ev_quote_1604365e]

• GOOGL last quoted at $342.75, down 0.34%, the smallest decline of the three names. [ev_quote_0f82ac44] [ev_quote_1604365e] [ev_quote_b14c02d4]

• MSFT last quoted at $509.22, down 1.35%, the largest overnight decline among AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT. [ev_quote_b14c02d4] [ev_quote_1604365e] [ev_quote_0f82ac44]

Thesis

• statement: Standing-neutral on AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT: overnight softness does not reset the wait-for-October-earnings frame, and all three still show convergence signals.

• frame: Neutral hold. Yesterday's Daily Tape frame still applies; do not trade overnight noise ahead of the late-October prints.

• why_now: Pre-market 2026-09-29 has no fresh catalyst. AAPL -0.78%, GOOGL -0.34%, and MSFT -1.35% are modest and leave the 2026-09-28 standing-neutral thesis intact until the Oct 27–29 earnings cluster.

• AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT each currently show a convergence signal with score 1. [ev_conv_6ab65975] [ev_conv_11dfaa13] [ev_conv_b723b7ba]

• The 2026-09-28 Daily Tape already set a standing-neutral frame on AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT, and that coverage remains the live reference with no intervening catalyst. [ev_cov_2e1ae567]

• As of the 2026-09-01 analyst snapshot, Street ratings were 41 buy / 5 hold / 0 sell on MSFT, 43 buy / 7 hold / 0 sell on GOOGL, and a more mixed 22 buy / 15 hold / 3 sell on AAPL. [ev_rec_7f99540c] [ev_rec_d8d210c3] [ev_rec_60a41e76]

• The next scheduled earnings dates are 2026-10-27 for MSFT and GOOGL and 2026-10-29 for AAPL. [ev_earn_855872c8] [ev_earn_26d04b0e] [ev_earn_7eb76df9]

What to watch

• trigger: MSFT and GOOGL earnings on 2026-10-27; AAPL on 2026-10-29

• metric: EPS versus consensus

• timeframe: October 27–29, 2026

• Microsoft is scheduled to report earnings on 2026-10-27, the next dated checkpoint for MSFT on this tape. [ev_earn_855872c8]

• Alphabet is scheduled to report earnings on 2026-10-27, the next dated checkpoint for GOOGL on this tape. [ev_earn_26d04b0e]

• Apple is scheduled to report earnings on 2026-10-29, two days after the MSFT and GOOGL prints. [ev_earn_7eb76df9]

By the numbers

• metric: calibrated_p_up_5d

• value: 0.627827

• comparison: highest among peers

• period: 5-day forward

• MSFT has demonstrated the most consistent positive EPS surprises over the trailing four quarters, with all four quarters beating estimates (ranging from +0.11 to +0.41 surprise), compared to AAPL's mixed record (2 beats, 2 misses) and GOOGL's recent miss streak (3 of last 4 quarters below estimate). [ev_fundamentals_7781af33] [ev_fundamentals_045bf040] [ev_fundamentals_4e292917]

• GOOGL carries the highest calibrated 5-day upside probability at 0.628, materially above MSFT (0.412) and AAPL (0.422), despite GOOGL's recent earnings disappointments. [ev_fundamentals_32ed6521] [ev_fundamentals_51ef9509] [ev_fundamentals_52007274]

• AAPL's calibrated 5-day upside probability (0.422) is below the base rate of 0.661, indicating the model has downweighted near-term upside relative to historical frequency, likely reflecting the recent small negative EPS surprise in Q2 2026. [ev_fundamentals_32ed6521]

• MSFT's calibrated 5-day upside probability (0.412) sits below its base rate of 0.536, despite MSFT's strongest absolute EPS beat streak, suggesting the model is pricing in mean reversion or near-term consolidation after sustained outperformance. [ev_fundamentals_52007274]

Sources

• [ev_conv_b723b7ba] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:MSFT
• [ev_conv_6ab65975] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:AAPL
• [ev_conv_11dfaa13] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:GOOGL
• [ev_quote_0f82ac44] market_quote — market data:quote:GOOGL
• [ev_quote_1604365e] market_quote — market data:quote:AAPL
• [ev_quote_b14c02d4] market_quote — market data:quote:MSFT
• [ev_cov_2e1ae567] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:d4559174-6bee-4f56-826a-24cf293449e1
• [ev_cov_32f95cc3] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:30ac8e5b-ccd7-4aae-8847-ef049cb55dca
• [ev_cov_48261c62] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:137bc5cf-7a5a-4cf1-97c9-2cb52d3f67bb
• [ev_cov_9ec105eb] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:2e8a93d6-a99c-48d1-a7cb-fe8daaa35c1c
• [ev_cov_f77749f1] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:36dd267a-85ad-43fb-a28b-6de90f6e589d
• [ev_cov_f166d713] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:a3a10644-e240-4d73-9b64-07e7eb2710d8
• [ev_cov_742c502c] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:c3ec2638-c9f2-41a0-9bdc-d9e9995b3c7a
• [ev_cov_4f766138] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:29d8204e-4e7e-44b7-ba3d-25b8ed5977fd
• [ev_cov_fcd45474] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:dd315b71-4272-42b3-8747-1cc0ee474bcb
• [ev_cov_cfb36a1b] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:53c065c0-a89f-4fbc-9c75-6000961bee50
• [ev_cov_d8cd8c45] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:96d9775b-6e6d-4bfa-bff5-2cff1d63bd7a
• [ev_cov_6aedaf83] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:427bb074-9111-422f-aab1-9a6405977c73
• [ev_cov_bbc13878] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:036bce5b-ecbd-4b7a-b403-dfb4079be022
• [ev_cov_63aa1f41] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:799e87fc-ad00-474d-9758-a2dc3c2cf6ae
• [ev_cov_0be26dfe] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:98823963-9bbb-4690-aed5-598f1da75ba5
• [ev_cov_f908dd60] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:cbf8609d-b1fc-416c-adee-60a2e2b9c2b6
• [ev_cov_1df02d69] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9cffb451-c51c-484b-9d7b-3370a881c09a
• [ev_cov_2cfc25e3] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0b64e48a-73f0-4d6f-bebf-78bd777ca834
• [ev_cov_0a2f5e52] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9c826064-2755-4b18-809e-1f8dbf092055
• [ev_cov_082e0ff9] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:1b057e19-37df-4344-a691-df9c4b12366c
• [ev_cov_7edb5b23] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:6f45445c-7dd9-43f7-8303-b7b76a50d90a
• [ev_cov_cecef209] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:2ff1bbd8-e68b-4192-b59b-45f5270fc031
• [ev_cov_63098210] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:f80ac6c0-1bf6-4210-a9c0-3c224bf9bbc3
• [ev_cov_370a8a2d] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:978d2b1a-b826-4fe1-bd52-1afe646661e2
• [ev_cov_08721d9c] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3ecb0fe2-51f3-4472-b3db-aa871b4a2e5b
• [ev_cov_43e1d8ea] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:cc6cb418-2587-4513-96ad-7242b5c8bb85
• [ev_cov_b3c6279f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0135497a-8448-4b0a-8c55-47e013c16607
• [ev_cov_6d36ab51] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:2fbb9b6f-6d06-482b-a27f-8f656d63ecb2
• [ev_cov_19416b0c] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:71bbcc97-a7c4-476f-8118-097a511abb76
• [ev_cov_9f558008] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:da91a3bf-68fe-4a22-869a-494cb6bfdc37
• [ev_cov_c7278108] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:28205256-eb7f-409e-9967-afeaf145225b
• [ev_cov_15508ad8] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ea818bf7-d7b6-4a62-a521-4082f94e08bb
• [ev_cov_781ec8ce] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:70d914a5-b74d-4ffb-87db-02779805aac8
• [ev_cov_092fd436] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:114fcb90-ced3-4f1c-bd29-59fbc61733d2
• [ev_cov_1ea31afb] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0dea4c6e-f3a0-44c0-a99f-0257ecd9ac28
• [ev_cov_d588b59a] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:8da79f89-fc92-47b6-b461-54504b3b9959
• [ev_cov_9d2eca5d] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ab6010fa-1077-4f25-ab7b-61cd5bcfa251
• [ev_cov_4971bc15] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aec66cd1-8415-4fcb-bc88-443cd97baf50
• [ev_cov_69030efd] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aaca6340-5b8f-469c-a705-180b5eaaeed4
• [ev_cov_ee129eaf] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4933044b-3f2d-4659-ace1-093987748e66
• [ev_cov_c0cc0fa7] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:e9792545-5aa8-41bd-840b-da72e4ea0523
• [ev_cov_ea8f6e64] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7ff9ef16-ebcb-4ecd-bc6f-c0b90f19c39f
• [ev_cov_ab9e8081] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0e4f5a74-b6fc-4458-9fdc-a5fc0e61c515
• [ev_cov_441a214d] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:194985d4-5698-4529-a8b5-d77eb8962804
• [ev_cov_8855fe1a] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7d859949-c025-4d08-9194-c0791a95293a
• [ev_cov_5d88ac3e] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3b293610-9791-4798-a878-681cd86c1177
• [ev_cov_1b959fa9] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4bbaf75c-6654-438c-8970-9bd835dd3036
• [ev_cov_394737f3] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:75022657-1f17-41db-8512-887d99a3e7a0
• [ev_cov_4572c516] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9b58ec54-d5b0-4da4-b0e0-bbafa8fd19ae
• [ev_cov_c93584f2] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:fc23c39c-1d62-499c-9229-cda1be1b5415
• [ev_cov_f0db2381] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:c242f61f-acaa-43b6-8658-c9e07d615da4
• [ev_profile_22c73024] company_profile — market data:profile:MSFT
• [ev_rec_7f99540c] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:MSFT
• [ev_profile_47f99615] company_profile — market data:profile:AAPL
• [ev_rec_60a41e76] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:AAPL
• [ev_profile_6acd343e] company_profile — market data:profile:GOOGL
• [ev_rec_d8d210c3] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:GOOGL
• [ev_earn_855872c8] earnings_date — market data:earnings:MSFT
• [ev_earn_7eb76df9] earnings_date — market data:earnings:AAPL
• [ev_earn_26d04b0e] earnings_date — market data:earnings:GOOGL
• [ev_news_249830c2] news_headline — https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/price-apple-nasdaq-aapl-stock-price-up-15-time-to-buy-2026-09-25
• [ev_news_773c1a3b] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/tech/nasdaq-aapl/apple/news/apple-aapl-stock-could-be-overvalued-on-fresh-health-app-hop/amp
• [ev_news_76567e50] news_headline — https://www.chartmill.com/news/AAPL/Chartmill-55345-Apple-NASDAQAAPL-Stands-Out-as-a-Quality-Investing-Candidate-Despite-Premium-Valuation
• [ev_news_de3a3b92] news_headline — https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/28/apple-at-341-above-consensus-but-still-it-may-be-re-rating-bound-due-to-its-balance-sheet?tpid=1669126&tv=link&tc=in_content
• [ev_news_7486cc36] news_headline — https://www.tikr.com/blog/apple-stock-is-up-34-over-the-past-year-can-the-iphone-18-keep-the-rally-going
• [ev_news_20f42173] news_headline — https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:6d4f8be7b094b:0-alphabet-vs-apple-which-consumer-ai-tech-stock-has-an-edge-now
• [ev_news_44e429e8] news_headline — https://eciks.org/28171-msft-stock-what-to-watch
• [ev_news_928487ff] news_headline — https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:eefea4d9b094b:0-quantum-selloff-should-investors-consider-these-3-hyperscalers
• [ev_news_784fdbb5] news_headline — https://www.tradingkey.com/news/market-movers/262186969-market-movers-msft-20260925
• [ev_news_60898eba] news_headline — https://www.barchart.com/story/news/4740306/dear-microsoft-stock-fans-mark-your-calendars-for-september-24
• [ev_news_2bbba95c] news_headline — https://seekingalpha.com/article/4949206-microsoft-buy-this-early-recovery
• [ev_news_34540591] news_headline — https://www.chartmill.com/news/AMGN/Chartmill-55364-Fridays-session-top-gainers-and-losers-in-the-dow-jones-index
• [ev_news_c932d9fd] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/software/nasdaq-msft/microsoft/news/does-microsoft-msft-have-a-new-playbook-for-enterprise-ai-ad/amp
• [ev_news_54381b03] news_headline — https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/general-mills-earnings-analysis-questions-answered-and-next-catalysts-93CH-4913616
• [ev_news_c18ac708] news_headline — https://www.benzinga.com/quote/GOOGL
• [ev_news_42bbcb74] news_headline — https://tech-insider.org/meta-vs-google-stock-2026
• [ev_news_17d0018e] news_headline — https://www.tikr.com/blog/alphabet-stock-dips-after-a-e403-million-fine-why-google-cloud-still-drives-the-story
• [ev_news_6d232656] news_headline — https://es.tradingview.com/news/zacks:c8e2fdefe094b:0-what-will-the-q3-earnings-season-show
• [ev_news_a4ed2d13] news_headline — https://seekingalpha.com/article/4949261-alphabet-something-big-is-coming
• [ev_news_7acd0dfa] news_headline — https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/09/25/alphabet-trades-for-17-times-earnings-the-sp-500-t
• [ev_fundamentals_7781af33] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_32ed6521] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_045bf040] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_51ef9509] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_4e292917] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:MSFT
• [ev_fundamentals_52007274] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:MSFT