Compiled by the machine desk — no human review before publication. Analytics, not advice.

Machine desk record: 58 claims graded, 59% held up.

Daily Tape — 2026-09-11: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT

Tickers: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT Valid from: 2026-09-11T10:10:08.653823+00:00

Catalyst

• event: AAPL rallied 3.56% to $326.57 — the only material overnight move on this tape — as Apple bucked a softer session amid call-dominant options flow and iPhone-reveal event chatter, while GOOGL and MSFT were nearly unchanged.

• magnitude: AAPL +3.56% vs GOOGL +0.59% and MSFT +0.16%

• timing: Overnight into the 2026-09-11 session

• expected_impact: Near-term relative-strength bid in AAPL versus mega-cap peers; Street still mixed (22 buy / 15 hold / 3 sell) with no earnings print until Oct 28.

• Apple last traded at $326.57, up 3.56%. [ev_quote_c3df7964]

• AAPL's 3.56% gain outpaced GOOGL's 0.59% rise to $332.60 and MSFT's 0.16% rise to $492.44 on the latest prints. [ev_quote_c3df7964] [ev_quote_867776f5] [ev_quote_f0aa4ed0]

• September 11 coverage flagged Apple bucking the trend higher despite call-dominant options flow. [ev_news_11a70e3a]

• As of the 2026-09-01 snapshot, AAPL carried 22 buy, 15 hold, and 3 sell ratings. [ev_rec_397f4c4c]

• Apple is scheduled to report earnings on 2026-10-28. [ev_earn_e2e7a1b8]

• AAPL will still be trading above $320 as of 2026-09-18. [ev_quote_c3df7964]

Thesis

• statement: Remain neutral on AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT. Apple's 3.56% jump to $326.57 is the only overnight move that matters, but a mixed 22/15/3 Street book and 'above fair value' coverage argue against chasing; Alphabet and Microsoft are essentially unchanged with near-unanimous buys into late-October earnings.

• frame: Standing-neutral mega-cap tape — treat AAPL's spike as tape, not a re-rate.

• why_now: Only AAPL moved materially overnight (+3.56% vs +0.59% GOOGL and +0.16% MSFT). The next hard fundamental checkpoint for all three is the October 27–28 earnings cluster.

• AAPL last traded at $326.57, up 3.56%, versus GOOGL at $332.60 (+0.59%) and MSFT at $492.44 (+0.16%). [ev_quote_c3df7964] [ev_quote_867776f5] [ev_quote_f0aa4ed0]

• As of the 2026-09-01 snapshot, AAPL's Street book was 22 buy / 15 hold / 3 sell, versus GOOGL at 43/7/0 and MSFT at 41/5/0. [ev_rec_397f4c4c] [ev_rec_b8c4ebe4] [ev_rec_4264f9f5]

• Recent coverage describes AAPL as looking above fair value after a strong run and potentially running out of room to outperform. [ev_news_477eedd8] [ev_news_243fed60]

• AAPL trades above $320 as of 2026-09-18. [ev_quote_c3df7964]

• Microsoft beats consensus EPS at its 2026-10-27 report. [ev_earn_077b807b] [ev_rec_4264f9f5]

• Alphabet beats consensus EPS at its 2026-10-27 report. [ev_earn_f23d0857] [ev_rec_b8c4ebe4]

• Apple beats consensus EPS at its 2026-10-28 report. [ev_earn_e2e7a1b8] [ev_rec_397f4c4c]

By the numbers

• metric: AAPL last change

• value: +3.56% to $326.57

• comparison: vs GOOGL +0.59% to $332.60 and MSFT +0.16% to $492.44

• period: latest quote, 2026-09-11 tape

• Apple last quoted at $326.57, up 3.56% — the only large move on this tape versus GOOGL and MSFT. [ev_quote_c3df7964] [ev_quote_867776f5] [ev_quote_f0aa4ed0]

• Alphabet last quoted at $332.60, up 0.59%. [ev_quote_867776f5]

• Microsoft last quoted at $492.44, up 0.16%. [ev_quote_f0aa4ed0]

• As of the 2026-09-01 snapshot, AAPL’s Street mix was 22 buy / 15 hold / 3 sell, versus 43/7/0 on GOOGL and 41/5/0 on MSFT. [ev_rec_397f4c4c] [ev_rec_b8c4ebe4] [ev_rec_4264f9f5]

• The next dated earnings prints are 2026-10-27 for MSFT and GOOGL and 2026-10-28 for AAPL. [ev_earn_077b807b] [ev_earn_f23d0857] [ev_earn_e2e7a1b8]

• AAPL trades above $315 as of 2026-09-18. [ev_quote_c3df7964]

Risks

• risk: AAPL's 3.6% overnight iPhone Duo pop fades, leaving the name extended versus a mixed 22/15/3 Street and 'above fair value' headlines, while GOOGL has already probed its 200-day moving average.

• likelihood (medium): A 3.6% event gap often mean-reverts, and AAPL is the only name of the three with sell-side dissent plus explicit valuation-fatigue headlines. Offsetting that is still-net-positive coverage and hardware-cycle momentum.

• impact (medium): A 3–5% AAPL fade would reverse the tape's only material 24h move but would not, on its own, break MSFT or GOOGL, both of which carry 0-sell Street slates and sub-1% overnight changes.

• mitigant: MSFT (41 buy / 5 hold / 0 sell) and GOOGL (43 / 7 / 0) remain consensus buys, so an AAPL hardware-event fade need not become a Mag7-wide de-rate into the late-October prints.

• AAPL last printed 326.57, up 3.56%, far outpacing GOOGL (+0.59% at 332.60) and MSFT (+0.16% at 492.44). [ev_quote_c3df7964] [ev_quote_867776f5] [ev_quote_f0aa4ed0]

• As of the 2026-09-01 snapshot, AAPL's Street slate is mixed at 22 buy / 15 hold / 3 sell, versus 0 sells for both MSFT (41/5/0) and GOOGL (43/7/0). [ev_rec_397f4c4c] [ev_rec_4264f9f5] [ev_rec_b8c4ebe4]

• A 10 Sep 2026 Simply Wall St. headline stated Apple stock looks above fair value after a strong run. [ev_news_477eedd8]

• A 5 Sep 2026 Barchart headline argued AAPL might be running out of room to outperform even as the 'AI laggard' sits pretty. [ev_news_243fed60]

• A 9 Sep 2026 XTB technical note said Alphabet shares fell 2% and tested the 200-day moving average. [ev_news_30c17282]

• AAPL will fall at least 3% from the 326.57 last print within 10 days as the iPhone Duo pop fades. [ev_quote_c3df7964] [ev_news_477eedd8] [ev_news_243fed60]

By the numbers

• metric: calibrated_p_up_5d

• value: 0.335–0.550

• comparison: dispersion across mega-cap tech

• period: 5-day forward

• MSFT has delivered positive EPS surprises in all four most recent quarters (Q3 2025 through Q2 2026), with an average surprise of +0.256 per share, suggesting consistent upside execution relative to consensus. [ev_fundamentals_257cbedb]

• GOOGL's recent EPS surprise pattern is mixed: two consecutive misses (Q1 and Q2 2026, -0.0851 and -0.1298 respectively) following a beat in Q4 2025 (+0.1137), indicating deteriorating earnings momentum relative to expectations. [ev_fundamentals_98c55ba0]

• AAPL's calibrated 5-day up probability of 0.335 is the lowest among the three names; GOOGL at 0.550 and MSFT at 0.385 suggest AAPL faces the weakest near-term directional bias in this cohort. [ev_fundamentals_04e48b8f] [ev_fundamentals_dce82dac] [ev_fundamentals_a1f53870]

• MSFT will beat consensus EPS on its next earnings report. [ev_fundamentals_257cbedb]

• GOOGL will miss consensus EPS on its next earnings report. [ev_fundamentals_98c55ba0]

• AAPL will not rise more than 5% over the next 5 days. [ev_fundamentals_04e48b8f]

Sources

• [ev_quote_c3df7964] market_quote — market data:quote:AAPL
• [ev_quote_867776f5] market_quote — market data:quote:GOOGL
• [ev_quote_f0aa4ed0] market_quote — market data:quote:MSFT
• [ev_conv_75a397c1] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:MSFT
• [ev_conv_2fa8c729] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:AAPL
• [ev_conv_a7610194] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:GOOGL
• [ev_profile_801e35d6] company_profile — market data:profile:MSFT
• [ev_rec_4264f9f5] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:MSFT
• [ev_profile_2ad3b913] company_profile — market data:profile:AAPL
• [ev_rec_397f4c4c] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:AAPL
• [ev_profile_ff18fef2] company_profile — market data:profile:GOOGL
• [ev_rec_b8c4ebe4] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:GOOGL
• [ev_earn_077b807b] earnings_date — market data:earnings:MSFT
• [ev_earn_e2e7a1b8] earnings_date — market data:earnings:AAPL
• [ev_cov_59d39449] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:cbf8609d-b1fc-416c-adee-60a2e2b9c2b6
• [ev_cov_9fcea394] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9cffb451-c51c-484b-9d7b-3370a881c09a
• [ev_cov_804f36e2] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0b64e48a-73f0-4d6f-bebf-78bd777ca834
• [ev_cov_abe8007c] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9c826064-2755-4b18-809e-1f8dbf092055
• [ev_cov_91142245] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:1b057e19-37df-4344-a691-df9c4b12366c
• [ev_cov_88b17dfc] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:6f45445c-7dd9-43f7-8303-b7b76a50d90a
• [ev_cov_58f1b1ab] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:2ff1bbd8-e68b-4192-b59b-45f5270fc031
• [ev_cov_1b9bff21] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:f80ac6c0-1bf6-4210-a9c0-3c224bf9bbc3
• [ev_cov_88ccd45f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:978d2b1a-b826-4fe1-bd52-1afe646661e2
• [ev_cov_a48e58d5] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3ecb0fe2-51f3-4472-b3db-aa871b4a2e5b
• [ev_cov_29c6386f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:cc6cb418-2587-4513-96ad-7242b5c8bb85
• [ev_cov_98a9b34c] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0135497a-8448-4b0a-8c55-47e013c16607
• [ev_cov_846980e8] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:2fbb9b6f-6d06-482b-a27f-8f656d63ecb2
• [ev_cov_9067d753] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:71bbcc97-a7c4-476f-8118-097a511abb76
• [ev_cov_a7520f21] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:da91a3bf-68fe-4a22-869a-494cb6bfdc37
• [ev_cov_a51ef3c0] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:28205256-eb7f-409e-9967-afeaf145225b
• [ev_cov_8cb7b155] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ea818bf7-d7b6-4a62-a521-4082f94e08bb
• [ev_cov_452d6ba1] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:70d914a5-b74d-4ffb-87db-02779805aac8
• [ev_cov_a18b9768] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:114fcb90-ced3-4f1c-bd29-59fbc61733d2
• [ev_cov_2862a8ef] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0dea4c6e-f3a0-44c0-a99f-0257ecd9ac28
• [ev_cov_3553419f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:8da79f89-fc92-47b6-b461-54504b3b9959
• [ev_cov_6b1f0c48] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:96d9775b-6e6d-4bfa-bff5-2cff1d63bd7a
• [ev_cov_3ca8cb58] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ab6010fa-1077-4f25-ab7b-61cd5bcfa251
• [ev_cov_29e260b9] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aec66cd1-8415-4fcb-bc88-443cd97baf50
• [ev_cov_9a49e6f7] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aaca6340-5b8f-469c-a705-180b5eaaeed4
• [ev_cov_cf831d0f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4933044b-3f2d-4659-ace1-093987748e66
• [ev_cov_2552bede] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:e9792545-5aa8-41bd-840b-da72e4ea0523
• [ev_cov_333b8ef1] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7ff9ef16-ebcb-4ecd-bc6f-c0b90f19c39f
• [ev_cov_d57b69cb] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0e4f5a74-b6fc-4458-9fdc-a5fc0e61c515
• [ev_cov_8e498096] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:194985d4-5698-4529-a8b5-d77eb8962804
• [ev_cov_8732246d] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7d859949-c025-4d08-9194-c0791a95293a
• [ev_cov_44fb3fc3] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3b293610-9791-4798-a878-681cd86c1177
• [ev_cov_1bdb100e] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4bbaf75c-6654-438c-8970-9bd835dd3036
• [ev_cov_5bc2d8b8] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:75022657-1f17-41db-8512-887d99a3e7a0
• [ev_cov_846fc93a] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9b58ec54-d5b0-4da4-b0e0-bbafa8fd19ae
• [ev_cov_96208571] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:fc23c39c-1d62-499c-9229-cda1be1b5415
• [ev_cov_cf15ec21] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:c242f61f-acaa-43b6-8658-c9e07d615da4
• [ev_earn_f23d0857] earnings_date — market data:earnings:GOOGL
• [ev_news_cb061810] news_headline — [https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Alphabet+Stock+(GOOGL](https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Alphabet+Stock+(GOOGL)
• [ev_news_a57aa817] news_headline — https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:7095e463f094b:0-alphabet-s-roic-is-strong-but-is-googl-stock-a-buy-now
• [ev_news_30c17282] news_headline — https://www.xtb.com/int/market-analysis/news-and-research/technical-analysis-alphabet-shares-fall-2-and-test-the-200-day-moving-average
• [ev_news_f771fda4] news_headline — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/jim-cramer-alphabet-googl-don-171250820.html
• [ev_news_2ce7fee4] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nasdaq-googl/alphabet/news/alphabet-googl-pours-13-billion-into-finland-ai-hubs-and-pat
• [ev_news_69a17479] news_headline — https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/GOOG/pressreleases/4495235/is-alphabet-stock-undervalued
• [ev_news_477eedd8] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/tech/nasdaq-aapl/apple/news/apple-aapl-stock-looks-above-fair-value-after-strong-run
• [ev_news_89f03310] news_headline — https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/08/i-think-apple-is-getting-re-rated-to-400-so-im-buying-again-and-again
• [ev_news_243fed60] news_headline — https://www.barchart.com/story/news/4461863/ai-laggard-apple-is-sitting-pretty-but-aapl-stock-might-be-running-out-of-room-to-outperform
• [ev_news_f672104e] news_headline — https://www.chartmill.com/stock/quote/AAPL/news
• [ev_news_11a70e3a] news_headline — https://www.moomoo.com/community/feed/apple-s-stock-is-rallying-and-even-with-call-options-117250508324870
• [ev_news_7e93a040] news_headline — https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/aapl
• [ev_news_26e82ad9] news_headline — https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/article/how-apple-stock-usually-reacts-to-big-iphone-reveal-events-152915777.html
• [ev_news_52766ec7] news_headline — https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/earnings-virco-manufacturing-nasdaq-virc-posts-quarterly-earnings-results-beats-estimates-by-048-eps-2026-09-04/
• [ev_news_720ee0e3] news_headline — https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-sp500-nasdaq-august-jobs-report-lululemon-lulu/
• [ev_news_3ddbea82] news_headline — https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/10/oracle-jumped-36-in-a-day-after-last-septembers-earnings-but-traders-are-betting-against-it-tonight/
• [ev_news_0303265a] news_headline — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/04/here-are-our-top-10-things-to-watch-in-the-stock-market-friday.html
• [ev_news_e384515a] news_headline — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/08/stocks-making-the-biggest-moves-after-hours-ttan-avo-chym.html
• [ev_news_f39acfe9] news_headline — https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/oracle-posts-cloud-sales-top-201512207.html
• [ev_news_72de8a23] news_headline — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/10/a-rapid-fire-update-on-our-33-stock-portfolio-including-6-to-buy-now.html
• [ev_news_642af294] news_headline — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/prediction-sandisk-stock-worth-12-150101668.html
• [ev_fundamentals_d00a2343] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_04e48b8f] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_98c55ba0] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_dce82dac] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_257cbedb] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:MSFT
• [ev_fundamentals_a1f53870] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:MSFT