Compiled by the machine desk — no human review before publication. Analytics, not advice.

Machine desk record: 91 claims graded, 55% held up.

Daily Tape — 2026-10-12: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT

Tickers: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT Valid from: 2026-10-12T10:08:44.819778+00:00

By the numbers

• metric: Overnight last-print change

• value: MSFT +2.38% to $535.07

• comparison: led GOOGL +0.97% to $351.66; AAPL was the only decliner at −1.11% to $336.64

• period: overnight into 2026-10-12 pre-market

• Microsoft last printed at $535.07, up 2.38% overnight — the largest move among AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT. [ev_quote_e13b3553]

• Alphabet last printed at $351.66, up 0.97% overnight. [ev_quote_163838ba]

• Apple last printed at $336.64, down 1.11% overnight, the only decliner of the three names. [ev_quote_b3f3e446]

• Overnight tape in the three mega-caps diverged: MSFT and GOOGL finished higher while AAPL finished lower. [ev_quote_e13b3553] [ev_quote_163838ba] [ev_quote_b3f3e446]

Thesis

• statement: Remain neutral on AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT: mixed overnight tape, still-constructive Street books, and score-1 convergence signals on all three names argue for holding rather than tilting into the coming prints.

• frame: Standing hold / no-tilt across the mega-cap tech trio.

• why_now: No material overnight catalyst; GOOGL reports 2026-10-27, MSFT 2026-10-28, and AAPL 2026-11-02, and each name currently shows a score-1 technical/sentiment convergence signal.

• AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT each currently carry a score-1 convergence signal. [ev_conv_823b8258] [ev_conv_3f535f27] [ev_conv_7b2d2ade]

• As of the 2026-09-01 snapshot, Street ratings remain constructive on MSFT (41 buy, 5 hold, 0 sell) and GOOGL (43 buy, 7 hold, 0 sell), while AAPL is more mixed (22 buy, 15 hold, 3 sell). [ev_rec_0713614a] [ev_rec_5ada4fd4] [ev_rec_3e98eff4]

• Alphabet is scheduled to report on 2026-10-27, Microsoft on 2026-10-28, and Apple on 2026-11-02. [ev_earn_beefe0b8] [ev_earn_b9870494] [ev_earn_15b38266]

• Last prints were mixed across the trio: MSFT at $535.07 (+2.38%), GOOGL at $351.66 (+0.97%), and AAPL at $336.64 (-1.11%). [ev_quote_e13b3553] [ev_quote_163838ba] [ev_quote_b3f3e446]

What to watch

• trigger: GOOGL (Oct 27), MSFT (Oct 28), then AAPL (Nov 2) earnings prints

• metric: EPS and revenue vs consensus

• timeframe: 2026-10-27 to 2026-11-02

• Alphabet is scheduled to report fiscal period-3 earnings on 2026-10-27, the first of the three names to print. [ev_earn_beefe0b8]

• Microsoft is scheduled to report fiscal period-1 earnings on 2026-10-28, with recent coverage already framing the print as the near-term checkpoint while the stock sits near a 52-week high. [ev_earn_b9870494] [ev_news_51460c4d]

• Apple is scheduled to report fiscal period-4 earnings on 2026-11-02, closing the three-name print window. [ev_earn_15b38266]

• The next material checkpoint for AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT is a six-session earnings cluster running from 2026-10-27 through 2026-11-02. [ev_earn_beefe0b8] [ev_earn_b9870494] [ev_earn_15b38266]

By the numbers

• metric: calibrated_p_up_5d

• value: 0.448–0.613

• comparison: range across three names

• period: 5-day forward

• MSFT has the lowest calibrated 5-day up probability (0.448) among the three names, reflecting a base rate of 0.5625 and a Brier score of 0.259. [ev_fundamentals_f1ceec4e]

• GOOGL has the highest calibrated 5-day up probability (0.613) among the three names, despite a lower base rate (0.455) than MSFT, indicating model adjustment above historical frequency. [ev_fundamentals_8b07edc0]

• MSFT has delivered positive EPS surprises in all four most recent quarters (0.41, 0.13, 0.11, 0.39), while AAPL and GOOGL show mixed surprise patterns with recent misses. [ev_fundamentals_a1678b9b] [ev_fundamentals_1fe497dd] [ev_fundamentals_8b6e0841]

• MSFT will close higher 5 days from today (2026-10-17). [ev_fundamentals_f1ceec4e]

• GOOGL will close higher 5 days from today (2026-10-17). [ev_fundamentals_8b07edc0]

• AAPL will close higher 5 days from today (2026-10-17). [ev_fundamentals_e9d3dd80]

Sources

• [ev_conv_7b2d2ade] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:MSFT
• [ev_conv_823b8258] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:AAPL
• [ev_conv_3f535f27] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:GOOGL
• [ev_quote_163838ba] market_quote — market data:quote:GOOGL
• [ev_quote_e13b3553] market_quote — market data:quote:MSFT
• [ev_quote_b3f3e446] market_quote — market data:quote:AAPL
• [ev_cov_e04564db] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3fd41d49-ea55-43b9-b351-6562644d64d4
• [ev_cov_5bbd0912] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9cffb451-c51c-484b-9d7b-3370a881c09a
• [ev_cov_f8c9af63] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3856685d-609f-44f4-b6ff-48e24c407500
• [ev_cov_592522ef] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7d859949-c025-4d08-9194-c0791a95293a
• [ev_cov_477afa19] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:a5f34879-8653-4603-b767-6008070d8f3b
• [ev_cov_7a8b0e6c] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:a15d13f4-c6f8-4af7-b59e-0123032049bc
• [ev_cov_7afe26d4] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:d554e274-cecf-4fdb-8b3b-8ee4fde65796
• [ev_cov_ba05051c] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:099b02ef-c945-463f-971c-3358fc77efb0
• [ev_cov_7a36ff02] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:d4559174-6bee-4f56-826a-24cf293449e1
• [ev_cov_bc19e4ae] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:44389b9b-f4f3-43cc-af84-6c3a05b0e5a5
• [ev_cov_3e45cb48] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:30ac8e5b-ccd7-4aae-8847-ef049cb55dca
• [ev_cov_b8c807ca] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:137bc5cf-7a5a-4cf1-97c9-2cb52d3f67bb
• [ev_cov_605639b6] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:2e8a93d6-a99c-48d1-a7cb-fe8daaa35c1c
• [ev_cov_604696a7] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:36dd267a-85ad-43fb-a28b-6de90f6e589d
• [ev_cov_4508c98e] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:a3a10644-e240-4d73-9b64-07e7eb2710d8
• [ev_cov_1a6aff9d] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:c3ec2638-c9f2-41a0-9bdc-d9e9995b3c7a
• [ev_cov_188045ed] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:29d8204e-4e7e-44b7-ba3d-25b8ed5977fd
• [ev_cov_adf37e98] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:dd315b71-4272-42b3-8747-1cc0ee474bcb
• [ev_cov_0712d6ea] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:53c065c0-a89f-4fbc-9c75-6000961bee50
• [ev_cov_3acbad23] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:96d9775b-6e6d-4bfa-bff5-2cff1d63bd7a
• [ev_cov_b6b65f97] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:427bb074-9111-422f-aab1-9a6405977c73
• [ev_cov_653386f9] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:036bce5b-ecbd-4b7a-b403-dfb4079be022
• [ev_cov_7385fd38] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:799e87fc-ad00-474d-9758-a2dc3c2cf6ae
• [ev_cov_917a2e9c] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:98823963-9bbb-4690-aed5-598f1da75ba5
• [ev_cov_3211c765] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:cbf8609d-b1fc-416c-adee-60a2e2b9c2b6
• [ev_cov_a6ac7fad] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0b64e48a-73f0-4d6f-bebf-78bd777ca834
• [ev_cov_e8ccc17f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9c826064-2755-4b18-809e-1f8dbf092055
• [ev_cov_e0ceafa5] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:1b057e19-37df-4344-a691-df9c4b12366c
• [ev_cov_1137d735] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:6f45445c-7dd9-43f7-8303-b7b76a50d90a
• [ev_cov_b6f2b01c] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:2ff1bbd8-e68b-4192-b59b-45f5270fc031
• [ev_cov_017a8e32] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:f80ac6c0-1bf6-4210-a9c0-3c224bf9bbc3
• [ev_cov_3e1b2ad4] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:978d2b1a-b826-4fe1-bd52-1afe646661e2
• [ev_cov_048c5b7f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3ecb0fe2-51f3-4472-b3db-aa871b4a2e5b
• [ev_cov_5c87b493] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:cc6cb418-2587-4513-96ad-7242b5c8bb85
• [ev_cov_61784acf] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0135497a-8448-4b0a-8c55-47e013c16607
• [ev_cov_f5b96d6b] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:2fbb9b6f-6d06-482b-a27f-8f656d63ecb2
• [ev_cov_800d0e5c] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:71bbcc97-a7c4-476f-8118-097a511abb76
• [ev_cov_8ad66a1f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:da91a3bf-68fe-4a22-869a-494cb6bfdc37
• [ev_cov_dd4b9828] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:28205256-eb7f-409e-9967-afeaf145225b
• [ev_cov_acccdc34] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ea818bf7-d7b6-4a62-a521-4082f94e08bb
• [ev_cov_58ac2533] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:70d914a5-b74d-4ffb-87db-02779805aac8
• [ev_cov_48c8d197] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:114fcb90-ced3-4f1c-bd29-59fbc61733d2
• [ev_cov_9ccae40b] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0dea4c6e-f3a0-44c0-a99f-0257ecd9ac28
• [ev_cov_7d60af20] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:8da79f89-fc92-47b6-b461-54504b3b9959
• [ev_cov_8686aecd] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ab6010fa-1077-4f25-ab7b-61cd5bcfa251
• [ev_cov_c2fa4303] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aec66cd1-8415-4fcb-bc88-443cd97baf50
• [ev_cov_195c5248] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aaca6340-5b8f-469c-a705-180b5eaaeed4
• [ev_cov_f593c585] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4933044b-3f2d-4659-ace1-093987748e66
• [ev_cov_fb74af9c] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:e9792545-5aa8-41bd-840b-da72e4ea0523
• [ev_cov_044cd48f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7ff9ef16-ebcb-4ecd-bc6f-c0b90f19c39f
• [ev_cov_4fa9c4ba] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0e4f5a74-b6fc-4458-9fdc-a5fc0e61c515
• [ev_cov_583a70f5] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:194985d4-5698-4529-a8b5-d77eb8962804
• [ev_cov_4c32007d] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3b293610-9791-4798-a878-681cd86c1177
• [ev_cov_6ccce0da] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4bbaf75c-6654-438c-8970-9bd835dd3036
• [ev_cov_8585e20c] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:75022657-1f17-41db-8512-887d99a3e7a0
• [ev_cov_48ad36d9] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9b58ec54-d5b0-4da4-b0e0-bbafa8fd19ae
• [ev_cov_ae6d71a1] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:fc23c39c-1d62-499c-9229-cda1be1b5415
• [ev_cov_b3606e9e] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:c242f61f-acaa-43b6-8658-c9e07d615da4
• [ev_profile_619264b4] company_profile — market data:profile:AAPL
• [ev_rec_3e98eff4] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:AAPL
• [ev_profile_cb170140] company_profile — market data:profile:MSFT
• [ev_rec_0713614a] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:MSFT
• [ev_profile_dc8045e4] company_profile — market data:profile:GOOGL
• [ev_rec_5ada4fd4] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:GOOGL
• [ev_earn_15b38266] earnings_date — market data:earnings:AAPL
• [ev_earn_b9870494] earnings_date — market data:earnings:MSFT
• [ev_earn_beefe0b8] earnings_date — market data:earnings:GOOGL
• [ev_news_e79ca3bd] news_headline — https://www.barchart.com/story/news/4990684/dear-microsoft-stock-fans-mark-your-calendars-for-october-7
• [ev_news_51460c4d] news_headline — https://www.marketbeat.com/articles/microsoft-is-almost-back-to-555-now-the-hard-part-begins
• [ev_news_44c50ad2] news_headline — https://fr.tradingview.com/news/coinpedia:2b201dcd0094b:0-should-you-buy-microsoft-stock-msft-in-october-3-things-investors-need-to-know
• [ev_news_82d651b9] news_headline — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/earnings-calendar-analysis-week-june-162434561.html
• [ev_news_b0b605f0] news_headline — https://www.benzinga.com/news/politics/26/10/62207155/congressman-sells-microsoft-stock-buys-this-financial-giant-ahead-of-quarterly-results
• [ev_news_4a440e91] news_headline — https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:2fb37ef87094b:0-apple-rises-24-ytd-should-you-buy-sell-or-hold-the-aapl-stock
• [ev_news_318860a9] news_headline — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/why-apple-aapl-stock-trading-231510875.html
• [ev_news_ceff0112] news_headline — https://www.forbes.com/companies/apple
• [ev_news_ba175ef5] news_headline — https://beinsure.com/news/apple-stock-forecast-aapl-faces-iphone-demand-risks
• [ev_news_7ef5334a] news_headline — https://seekingalpha.com/article/4953118-apple-from-14x-to-38x-valuation-has-come-a-long-way-initiating-sell
• [ev_news_6a673c15] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/tech/nasdaq-aapl/apple/news/apple-aapl-shares-enter-24-7-token-trading-plan-in-63-stock
• [ev_news_c9c1d044] news_headline — https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/apple-stock-outlook-iphone-18-pro-order-cut-report-weighs-on-shares-93CH-4941521
• [ev_news_87ec610e] news_headline — https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/filing-alphabet-inc-googl-stock-purchased-by-lincoln-capital-llc-2026-10-11
• [ev_news_a44e6837] news_headline — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WxIKz8kyYuc
• [ev_news_40d1ae32] news_headline — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/alphabet-googl-stock-looks-reasonable-201032665.html
• [ev_news_920d7298] news_headline — https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/googl
• [ev_fundamentals_1fe497dd] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_e9d3dd80] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_8b6e0841] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_8b07edc0] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_a1678b9b] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:MSFT
• [ev_fundamentals_f1ceec4e] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:MSFT