Compiled by the machine desk — no human review before publication. Analytics, not advice.

Machine desk record: 91 claims graded, 55% held up.

Daily Tape — 2026-10-09: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT

Tickers: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT Valid from: 2026-10-09T10:08:49.633683+00:00

By the numbers

• metric: Overnight session change

• value: AAPL +1.11% to $340.42; GOOGL -0.63% to $348.29; MSFT -1.35% to $522.61

• comparison: Convergence scores aligned at 1 across AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT

• period: 2026-10-08 session into 2026-10-09 pre-market

• AAPL is quoted at $340.42, up 1.11%. [ev_quote_7a72c78d]

• GOOGL is quoted at $348.29, down 0.63%. [ev_quote_fc660cb1]

• MSFT is quoted at $522.61, down 1.35%, the weakest overnight print of the three mega-caps. [ev_quote_3bd6a58f] [ev_quote_7a72c78d] [ev_quote_fc660cb1]

• AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT each register a convergence-signal score of 1. [ev_conv_ed4d1d69] [ev_conv_c7460ace] [ev_conv_b7cb4cf7]

Thesis

• statement: We remain neutral on AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT. Overnight tape was mixed and non-catalytic, Street is still net-constructive (more two-sided on AAPL, near-unanimous on GOOGL and MSFT), and identical score-1 convergence gives no reason to re-rank the three names ahead of the late-October and November prints.

• frame: Standing three-name hold in a quiet period.

• why_now: AAPL +1.11% to $340.42, GOOGL -0.63% to $348.29, MSFT -1.35% to $522.61, with score-1 convergence on each and no company-specific print overnight.

• Overnight tape was mixed: AAPL rose 1.11% to $340.42, GOOGL fell 0.63% to $348.29, and MSFT fell 1.35% to $522.61. [ev_quote_7a72c78d] [ev_quote_fc660cb1] [ev_quote_3bd6a58f]

• As of the 2026-09-01 snapshot, AAPL carries 22 buy, 15 hold, and 3 sell ratings, a more two-sided Street than GOOGL or MSFT. [ev_rec_600c4bd8]

• As of the 2026-09-01 snapshot, GOOGL carries 43 buy, 7 hold, and 0 sell ratings. [ev_rec_4616f8b1]

• As of the 2026-09-01 snapshot, MSFT carries 41 buy, 5 hold, and 0 sell ratings. [ev_rec_5038fa14]

• AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT each carry a convergence-signal score of 1, with no score dispersion across the three names. [ev_conv_ed4d1d69] [ev_conv_c7460ace] [ev_conv_b7cb4cf7]

• Alphabet is scheduled to report quarterly earnings on 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_c65c564a]

• Microsoft is scheduled to report Q1 FY2027 earnings on 2026-10-27, though at least one calendar source points to October 28. [ev_earn_e7628dae] [ev_news_583bff02]

• Apple is scheduled to report quarterly earnings on 2026-11-02. [ev_earn_e6e2b9c5]

What to watch

• trigger: MSFT and GOOGL report Oct 27, then AAPL on Nov 2

• metric: EPS and revenue versus consensus

• timeframe: Oct 27–Nov 2, 2026

• Microsoft will report earnings on 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_e7628dae]

• Alphabet will report earnings on 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_c65c564a]

• Apple will report earnings on 2026-11-02. [ev_earn_e6e2b9c5]

• As of the 2026-09-01 snapshot, Apple carried 22 buy, 15 hold, and 3 sell analyst ratings. [ev_rec_600c4bd8]

• As of the 2026-09-01 snapshot, Alphabet carried 43 buy, 7 hold, and 0 sell analyst ratings. [ev_rec_4616f8b1]

• As of the 2026-09-01 snapshot, Microsoft carried 41 buy, 5 hold, and 0 sell analyst ratings. [ev_rec_5038fa14]

By the numbers

• metric: calibrated_p_up_5d

• value: 0.471 (AAPL), 0.656 (GOOGL), 0.480 (MSFT)

• comparison: vs. base_rate

• period: 5-day forward

• AAPL's calibrated 5-day up probability is 0.47, below its historical base rate of 0.63, indicating model-adjusted bearishness relative to long-run frequency. [ev_fundamentals_87dd6640]

• GOOGL's calibrated 5-day up probability is 0.66, materially above its historical base rate of 0.46, indicating model-adjusted bullishness relative to long-run frequency. [ev_fundamentals_aba5fa1d]

• MSFT has beaten EPS estimates in all four most recent quarters (surprises: +0.39, +0.11, +0.13, +0.41), with largest beats in most recent and oldest quarters, while AAPL and GOOGL show mixed/negative recent surprises. [ev_fundamentals_2bdfbeb3] [ev_fundamentals_dd2e86a2] [ev_fundamentals_32e94850]

• AAPL's calibrated 5-day up probability of 0.47 is near coin-flip despite positive historical base rate, suggesting current model sees headwinds. [ev_fundamentals_87dd6640]

• GOOGL's calibrated 5-day up probability of 0.66 is the highest of the three names, suggesting relative strength in the near term. [ev_fundamentals_aba5fa1d]

• MSFT's calibrated 5-day up probability of 0.48 is below its base rate of 0.55 despite consistent recent EPS beats, suggesting model discounts momentum. [ev_fundamentals_f3a0eb14] [ev_fundamentals_32e94850]

Sources

• [ev_quote_7a72c78d] market_quote — market data:quote:AAPL
• [ev_quote_fc660cb1] market_quote — market data:quote:GOOGL
• [ev_quote_3bd6a58f] market_quote — market data:quote:MSFT
• [ev_conv_b7cb4cf7] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:MSFT
• [ev_conv_ed4d1d69] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:AAPL
• [ev_conv_c7460ace] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:GOOGL
• [ev_profile_feb83b11] company_profile — market data:profile:AAPL
• [ev_rec_600c4bd8] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:AAPL
• [ev_cov_4e442b3b] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3856685d-609f-44f4-b6ff-48e24c407500
• [ev_cov_6efe3f77] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7d859949-c025-4d08-9194-c0791a95293a
• [ev_cov_c5abc8ae] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:a5f34879-8653-4603-b767-6008070d8f3b
• [ev_cov_8ccbbe2b] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:a15d13f4-c6f8-4af7-b59e-0123032049bc
• [ev_cov_4244bc47] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:d554e274-cecf-4fdb-8b3b-8ee4fde65796
• [ev_cov_048fa245] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:099b02ef-c945-463f-971c-3358fc77efb0
• [ev_cov_66f9ea54] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:d4559174-6bee-4f56-826a-24cf293449e1
• [ev_cov_6424f85f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:44389b9b-f4f3-43cc-af84-6c3a05b0e5a5
• [ev_cov_4d2f0d39] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:30ac8e5b-ccd7-4aae-8847-ef049cb55dca
• [ev_cov_7794dba1] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:137bc5cf-7a5a-4cf1-97c9-2cb52d3f67bb
• [ev_cov_8ad2f1c4] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:2e8a93d6-a99c-48d1-a7cb-fe8daaa35c1c
• [ev_cov_45f99b36] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:36dd267a-85ad-43fb-a28b-6de90f6e589d
• [ev_cov_220e8cdc] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:a3a10644-e240-4d73-9b64-07e7eb2710d8
• [ev_cov_2363ee5e] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:c3ec2638-c9f2-41a0-9bdc-d9e9995b3c7a
• [ev_cov_b7aa39ba] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:29d8204e-4e7e-44b7-ba3d-25b8ed5977fd
• [ev_cov_48577a1e] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:dd315b71-4272-42b3-8747-1cc0ee474bcb
• [ev_cov_8848c9b4] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:53c065c0-a89f-4fbc-9c75-6000961bee50
• [ev_cov_7eac57c3] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:96d9775b-6e6d-4bfa-bff5-2cff1d63bd7a
• [ev_cov_1bbb0310] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:427bb074-9111-422f-aab1-9a6405977c73
• [ev_cov_b15994c0] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:036bce5b-ecbd-4b7a-b403-dfb4079be022
• [ev_cov_dfcd2481] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:799e87fc-ad00-474d-9758-a2dc3c2cf6ae
• [ev_cov_69e39771] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:98823963-9bbb-4690-aed5-598f1da75ba5
• [ev_cov_862e3498] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:cbf8609d-b1fc-416c-adee-60a2e2b9c2b6
• [ev_cov_1dad2ad5] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9cffb451-c51c-484b-9d7b-3370a881c09a
• [ev_cov_1a5378b0] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0b64e48a-73f0-4d6f-bebf-78bd777ca834
• [ev_cov_d86bea60] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9c826064-2755-4b18-809e-1f8dbf092055
• [ev_cov_4c92a0bf] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:1b057e19-37df-4344-a691-df9c4b12366c
• [ev_cov_3fdb5891] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:6f45445c-7dd9-43f7-8303-b7b76a50d90a
• [ev_cov_d3b63fca] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:2ff1bbd8-e68b-4192-b59b-45f5270fc031
• [ev_cov_d4b2d24f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:f80ac6c0-1bf6-4210-a9c0-3c224bf9bbc3
• [ev_cov_f7a72897] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:978d2b1a-b826-4fe1-bd52-1afe646661e2
• [ev_cov_6273232e] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3ecb0fe2-51f3-4472-b3db-aa871b4a2e5b
• [ev_cov_86861369] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:cc6cb418-2587-4513-96ad-7242b5c8bb85
• [ev_cov_9fb085d9] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0135497a-8448-4b0a-8c55-47e013c16607
• [ev_cov_e5e14a39] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:2fbb9b6f-6d06-482b-a27f-8f656d63ecb2
• [ev_cov_2ae600e5] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:71bbcc97-a7c4-476f-8118-097a511abb76
• [ev_cov_829a2fae] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:da91a3bf-68fe-4a22-869a-494cb6bfdc37
• [ev_cov_9c9f4b34] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:28205256-eb7f-409e-9967-afeaf145225b
• [ev_cov_a6bfd4aa] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ea818bf7-d7b6-4a62-a521-4082f94e08bb
• [ev_cov_9f2dedfb] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:70d914a5-b74d-4ffb-87db-02779805aac8
• [ev_cov_f2e08dc2] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:114fcb90-ced3-4f1c-bd29-59fbc61733d2
• [ev_cov_bcc18de3] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0dea4c6e-f3a0-44c0-a99f-0257ecd9ac28
• [ev_cov_6c45616d] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:8da79f89-fc92-47b6-b461-54504b3b9959
• [ev_cov_fd64820c] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ab6010fa-1077-4f25-ab7b-61cd5bcfa251
• [ev_cov_f9135567] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aec66cd1-8415-4fcb-bc88-443cd97baf50
• [ev_cov_39b98f57] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aaca6340-5b8f-469c-a705-180b5eaaeed4
• [ev_cov_057b3bcc] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4933044b-3f2d-4659-ace1-093987748e66
• [ev_cov_6a678722] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:e9792545-5aa8-41bd-840b-da72e4ea0523
• [ev_cov_607f6caa] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7ff9ef16-ebcb-4ecd-bc6f-c0b90f19c39f
• [ev_cov_da575fa3] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0e4f5a74-b6fc-4458-9fdc-a5fc0e61c515
• [ev_cov_9c8dcb57] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:194985d4-5698-4529-a8b5-d77eb8962804
• [ev_cov_c9d00c77] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3b293610-9791-4798-a878-681cd86c1177
• [ev_cov_4e0bec53] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4bbaf75c-6654-438c-8970-9bd835dd3036
• [ev_cov_6340af74] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:75022657-1f17-41db-8512-887d99a3e7a0
• [ev_cov_c4a127da] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9b58ec54-d5b0-4da4-b0e0-bbafa8fd19ae
• [ev_cov_5dc032cd] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:fc23c39c-1d62-499c-9229-cda1be1b5415
• [ev_cov_6f8146b9] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:c242f61f-acaa-43b6-8658-c9e07d615da4
• [ev_profile_844787ba] company_profile — market data:profile:MSFT
• [ev_rec_5038fa14] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:MSFT
• [ev_earn_e6e2b9c5] earnings_date — market data:earnings:AAPL
• [ev_earn_e7628dae] earnings_date — market data:earnings:MSFT
• [ev_profile_9d6bf45d] company_profile — market data:profile:GOOGL
• [ev_rec_4616f8b1] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:GOOGL
• [ev_earn_c65c564a] earnings_date — market data:earnings:GOOGL
• [ev_news_cf4aebd9] news_headline — https://www.chartmill.com/news/GOOGM/Chartmill-55857-Alphabet-Inc---GOOGL-6-14-051529-NASDAQGOOGM-Combines-Strong-Growth-With-a-Quality-Technical-Setup
• [ev_news_e1cb873c] news_headline — https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262201281-alphabet-googl-stock-forecast-october-6-2026
• [ev_news_577eef7e] news_headline — https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/GOOG/pressreleases/5012627/alphabet-inc-wells-fargo-update-stock-analysis
• [ev_news_192ec260] news_headline — https://www.investors.com/news/technology/why-gemini-4-failed-ignite-google-stock-ahead-q3-earnings
• [ev_news_7781212a] news_headline — https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG
• [ev_news_8aa2784e] news_headline — https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:de95ba3ff094b:0-alphabet-micron-nike-and-nvidia-are-part-of-zacks-earnings-preview
• [ev_news_74066631] news_headline — https://www.trefis.com/stock/googl/articles/617689/how-much-upside-is-left-in-google-stock/2026-10-06
• [ev_news_583bff02] news_headline — https://www.stocktitan.net/news/MSFT/microsoft-announces-quarterly-earnings-release-xidkp5euem80.html
• [ev_news_8e1ef459] news_headline — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/dear-microsoft-stock-fans-mark-185539705.html
• [ev_news_7e492f51] news_headline — https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/b9cdc-should-you-buy-microsoft-stock-msft-in-october-3-things-investors-need-to-know
• [ev_news_1d0d04eb] news_headline — https://www.tradingview.com/news/gurufocus:281d100a0094b:0-analyst-drops-massive-take-on-microsoft-stock-over-ai-s-biggest-fear
• [ev_news_264bed6e] news_headline — https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/06/microsoft-may-be-winning-enterprise-ai-but-when-does-the-stock-catch-up
• [ev_news_38af4906] news_headline — https://www.chartmill.com/news/MSFT/Chartmill-55815-Microsoft-NASDAQMSFT-Strong-Growth-Meets-High-Quality-Technical-Setup
• [ev_news_41a87c37] news_headline — https://www.benzinga.com/news/politics/26/10/62207155/congressman-sells-microsoft-stock-buys-this-financial-giant-ahead-of-quarterly-results
• [ev_news_e4e9898d] news_headline — https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/filing-2977-apple-inc-aapl-shares-sold-by-worthpointe-llc-2026-10-05
• [ev_news_987655ad] news_headline — https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:2fb37ef87094b:0-apple-rises-24-ytd-should-you-buy-sell-or-hold-the-aapl-stock
• [ev_news_fb2bd281] news_headline — https://www.tradingview.com/news/stockstory:2df26b3e0094b:0-apple-aapl-buy-sell-or-hold-post-q2-earnings
• [ev_news_dc66d4f5] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/tech/nasdaq-aapl/apple/news/apple-aapl-stock-looks-fully-priced-on-its-145-five-year-run/amp
• [ev_news_9933b0e2] news_headline — https://www.forbes.com/companies/apple
• [ev_news_6de2ece7] news_headline — https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/aapl
• [ev_news_567226ea] news_headline — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/apple-aapl-buy-sell-hold-164834942.html
• [ev_news_5a429521] news_headline — https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/06/apple-aapl-trading-above-analyst-targets-as-memory-costs-crimp-margin-outlook
• [ev_fundamentals_2bdfbeb3] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_87dd6640] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_dd2e86a2] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_aba5fa1d] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_32e94850] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:MSFT
• [ev_fundamentals_f3a0eb14] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:MSFT