Compiled by the machine desk — no human review before publication. Analytics, not advice.

Machine desk record: 90 claims graded, 54% held up.

Daily Tape — 2026-10-08: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT

Tickers: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT Valid from: 2026-10-08T10:09:19.688899+00:00

By the numbers

• metric: Overnight % change (AAPL / GOOGL / MSFT)

• value: +0.91% / +0.81% / +0.09%

• comparison: All three names green; AAPL led, MSFT nearly flat

• period: Overnight into 2026-10-08 pre-market

• AAPL last traded at $336.67, up 0.91% overnight. [ev_quote_89ba813f]

• GOOGL last traded at $350.50, up 0.81% overnight. [ev_quote_51ba70dd]

• MSFT last traded at $529.76, up 0.09% overnight. [ev_quote_ff56fd7e]

• AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT each carry a convergence signal with score 1 alongside the modest overnight bid. [ev_conv_766ed421] [ev_conv_e2a8688d] [ev_conv_4531bf5b] [ev_quote_89ba813f] [ev_quote_51ba70dd] [ev_quote_ff56fd7e]

Thesis

• statement: Standing-neutral on AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT. Apple's mixed Street book and limited-upside tape, and Microsoft and Alphabet's still-constructive but un-rerated setups, are unchanged by sub-1% overnight gains; all three stay in a hold-for-earnings posture.

• frame: No upgrade or downgrade: keep the existing neutral on all three into the late-October prints.

• why_now: AAPL +0.91% to $336.67, GOOGL +0.81% to $350.50, and MSFT +0.09% to $529.76, each with a convergence score of 1, is tape noise rather than a thesis change with earnings 19–21 days out.

• As of the 2026-09-01 snapshot, Apple's analyst book is mixed at 22 buy, 15 hold, and 3 sell recommendations. [ev_rec_aad09e43]

• As of the 2026-09-01 snapshot, Microsoft's analyst book is heavily constructive at 41 buy, 5 hold, and 0 sell recommendations. [ev_rec_64211331]

• As of the 2026-09-01 snapshot, Alphabet's analyst book is heavily constructive at 43 buy, 7 hold, and 0 sell recommendations. [ev_rec_716b4f18]

• AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT each currently carry a convergence signal with a score of 1. [ev_conv_766ed421] [ev_conv_e2a8688d] [ev_conv_4531bf5b]

• AAPL stays below $360 into the late-October earnings window, in line with a mixed Street book and recent notes on limited upside and memory-cost margin pressure. [ev_quote_89ba813f] [ev_rec_aad09e43] [ev_news_3d9988b5] [ev_news_325f285c]

• Alphabet has not re-rated on Gemini 4; recent coverage notes the launch failed to ignite GOOGL ahead of Q3 earnings, and the stock is only +0.81% overnight at $350.50. [ev_news_be4e4b0b] [ev_quote_51ba70dd]

• Recent coverage still frames Microsoft as winning enterprise AI while asking when the stock catches up, matching a muted +0.09% overnight move to $529.76. [ev_news_f23dcb54] [ev_quote_ff56fd7e]

What to watch

• trigger: MSFT and GOOGL report Oct 27, AAPL Oct 29

• metric: EPS versus consensus

• timeframe: through 2026-10-29

• Microsoft and Alphabet are both scheduled to report earnings on 2026-10-27, with Apple following on 2026-10-29. [ev_earn_a857a08f] [ev_earn_bfb46489] [ev_earn_167305af]

• Microsoft will beat consensus EPS when it reports fiscal first-quarter results on 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_a857a08f] [ev_rec_64211331] [ev_news_d41d1196]

• Alphabet will beat consensus EPS when it reports third-quarter results on 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_bfb46489] [ev_rec_716b4f18] [ev_news_4295827a]

• Apple will beat consensus EPS when it reports fiscal fourth-quarter results on 2026-10-29. [ev_earn_167305af] [ev_rec_aad09e43]

By the numbers

• metric: calibrated_p_up_5d

• value: 0.465 (AAPL), 0.566 (GOOGL), 0.423 (MSFT)

• comparison: vs. base rate (0.628 AAPL, 0.460 GOOGL, 0.549 MSFT)

• period: 5-day forward

• AAPL's calibrated 5-day up probability (0.465) sits 16.3 percentage points below its own base rate (0.628), signaling model-detected headwinds relative to historical frequency of upside moves. [ev_fundamentals_cdcb3e6e]

• MSFT has delivered four consecutive positive EPS surprises (Q3 2025: +0.39, Q4 2025: +0.11, Q1 2026: +0.13, Q2 2026: +0.41), with the most recent beat of +0.41 being the largest in this window. [ev_fundamentals_6f01fd61]

• GOOGL's last two earnings (Q1 2026: −0.085, Q2 2026: −0.130) both missed consensus, reversing a pattern of beats in late 2025. [ev_fundamentals_9802ff85]

• GOOGL's calibrated 5-day up probability (0.566) exceeds its own base rate (0.460) by 10.6 percentage points, the only name in this set where the model assigns above-base-rate upside odds. [ev_fundamentals_9dd6f1fe]

• AAPL's recent surprise pattern is mixed (Q3 2025: +0.043, Q4 2025: +0.114, Q1 2026: +0.022, Q2 2026: −0.017), with the most recent quarter showing a miss and declining beat magnitude. [ev_fundamentals_0db89714]

• MSFT's calibrated 5-day up probability (0.423) sits 12.5 percentage points below its own base rate (0.549), despite the strongest recent earnings beat streak among the three names. [ev_fundamentals_d5ebcc9f] [ev_fundamentals_6f01fd61]

Sources

• [ev_conv_4531bf5b] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:MSFT
• [ev_conv_766ed421] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:AAPL
• [ev_conv_e2a8688d] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:GOOGL
• [ev_quote_51ba70dd] market_quote — market data:quote:GOOGL
• [ev_quote_ff56fd7e] market_quote — market data:quote:MSFT
• [ev_quote_89ba813f] market_quote — market data:quote:AAPL
• [ev_cov_e1d7da1f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7d859949-c025-4d08-9194-c0791a95293a
• [ev_cov_fd5c42ff] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:a5f34879-8653-4603-b767-6008070d8f3b
• [ev_cov_31821f81] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:a15d13f4-c6f8-4af7-b59e-0123032049bc
• [ev_cov_1e8ae25d] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:d554e274-cecf-4fdb-8b3b-8ee4fde65796
• [ev_cov_5b6e3105] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:099b02ef-c945-463f-971c-3358fc77efb0
• [ev_cov_736c1234] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:d4559174-6bee-4f56-826a-24cf293449e1
• [ev_cov_1f04cfd0] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:44389b9b-f4f3-43cc-af84-6c3a05b0e5a5
• [ev_cov_7b6dc81a] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:30ac8e5b-ccd7-4aae-8847-ef049cb55dca
• [ev_cov_f7aeaa1c] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:137bc5cf-7a5a-4cf1-97c9-2cb52d3f67bb
• [ev_cov_cf025161] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:2e8a93d6-a99c-48d1-a7cb-fe8daaa35c1c
• [ev_cov_03863d7f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:36dd267a-85ad-43fb-a28b-6de90f6e589d
• [ev_cov_978a4009] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:a3a10644-e240-4d73-9b64-07e7eb2710d8
• [ev_cov_7630294f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:c3ec2638-c9f2-41a0-9bdc-d9e9995b3c7a
• [ev_cov_34e6e400] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:29d8204e-4e7e-44b7-ba3d-25b8ed5977fd
• [ev_cov_31ffc0e4] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:dd315b71-4272-42b3-8747-1cc0ee474bcb
• [ev_cov_a4f703bd] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:53c065c0-a89f-4fbc-9c75-6000961bee50
• [ev_cov_545f0505] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:96d9775b-6e6d-4bfa-bff5-2cff1d63bd7a
• [ev_cov_094fa63f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:427bb074-9111-422f-aab1-9a6405977c73
• [ev_cov_89510239] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:036bce5b-ecbd-4b7a-b403-dfb4079be022
• [ev_cov_c48b7652] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:799e87fc-ad00-474d-9758-a2dc3c2cf6ae
• [ev_cov_9993cd8c] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:98823963-9bbb-4690-aed5-598f1da75ba5
• [ev_cov_edee5680] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:cbf8609d-b1fc-416c-adee-60a2e2b9c2b6
• [ev_cov_1d311f51] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9cffb451-c51c-484b-9d7b-3370a881c09a
• [ev_cov_6577be49] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0b64e48a-73f0-4d6f-bebf-78bd777ca834
• [ev_cov_298167bd] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9c826064-2755-4b18-809e-1f8dbf092055
• [ev_cov_ca2d2732] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:1b057e19-37df-4344-a691-df9c4b12366c
• [ev_cov_20b552df] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:6f45445c-7dd9-43f7-8303-b7b76a50d90a
• [ev_cov_bfee1311] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:2ff1bbd8-e68b-4192-b59b-45f5270fc031
• [ev_cov_7e6558ed] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:f80ac6c0-1bf6-4210-a9c0-3c224bf9bbc3
• [ev_cov_651a49c6] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:978d2b1a-b826-4fe1-bd52-1afe646661e2
• [ev_cov_6620522c] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3ecb0fe2-51f3-4472-b3db-aa871b4a2e5b
• [ev_cov_f08e562d] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:cc6cb418-2587-4513-96ad-7242b5c8bb85
• [ev_cov_cfdeda57] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0135497a-8448-4b0a-8c55-47e013c16607
• [ev_cov_3137fb9b] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:2fbb9b6f-6d06-482b-a27f-8f656d63ecb2
• [ev_cov_790914b5] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:71bbcc97-a7c4-476f-8118-097a511abb76
• [ev_cov_dff24024] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:da91a3bf-68fe-4a22-869a-494cb6bfdc37
• [ev_cov_3a56f94f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:28205256-eb7f-409e-9967-afeaf145225b
• [ev_cov_6b85f496] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ea818bf7-d7b6-4a62-a521-4082f94e08bb
• [ev_cov_190eafaa] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:70d914a5-b74d-4ffb-87db-02779805aac8
• [ev_cov_949f1051] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:114fcb90-ced3-4f1c-bd29-59fbc61733d2
• [ev_cov_18fa213b] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0dea4c6e-f3a0-44c0-a99f-0257ecd9ac28
• [ev_cov_da9b6a06] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:8da79f89-fc92-47b6-b461-54504b3b9959
• [ev_cov_41e56dcb] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ab6010fa-1077-4f25-ab7b-61cd5bcfa251
• [ev_cov_3a632f85] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aec66cd1-8415-4fcb-bc88-443cd97baf50
• [ev_cov_fe66cdff] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aaca6340-5b8f-469c-a705-180b5eaaeed4
• [ev_cov_14db1887] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4933044b-3f2d-4659-ace1-093987748e66
• [ev_cov_79be1852] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:e9792545-5aa8-41bd-840b-da72e4ea0523
• [ev_cov_e0c65fa6] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7ff9ef16-ebcb-4ecd-bc6f-c0b90f19c39f
• [ev_cov_dbd958af] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0e4f5a74-b6fc-4458-9fdc-a5fc0e61c515
• [ev_cov_0488acf9] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:194985d4-5698-4529-a8b5-d77eb8962804
• [ev_cov_5c626fac] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3b293610-9791-4798-a878-681cd86c1177
• [ev_cov_05e35436] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4bbaf75c-6654-438c-8970-9bd835dd3036
• [ev_cov_9c734c45] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:75022657-1f17-41db-8512-887d99a3e7a0
• [ev_cov_037c51be] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9b58ec54-d5b0-4da4-b0e0-bbafa8fd19ae
• [ev_cov_ec28db74] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:fc23c39c-1d62-499c-9229-cda1be1b5415
• [ev_cov_87b142fb] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:c242f61f-acaa-43b6-8658-c9e07d615da4
• [ev_profile_11833ad0] company_profile — market data:profile:AAPL
• [ev_rec_aad09e43] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:AAPL
• [ev_profile_0b10e924] company_profile — market data:profile:MSFT
• [ev_rec_64211331] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:MSFT
• [ev_profile_851a295f] company_profile — market data:profile:GOOGL
• [ev_rec_716b4f18] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:GOOGL
• [ev_earn_a857a08f] earnings_date — market data:earnings:MSFT
• [ev_earn_167305af] earnings_date — market data:earnings:AAPL
• [ev_earn_bfb46489] earnings_date — market data:earnings:GOOGL
• [ev_news_d41d1196] news_headline — https://www.stocktitan.net/news/MSFT/microsoft-announces-quarterly-earnings-release-xidkp5euem80.html
• [ev_news_35d2848b] news_headline — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/dear-microsoft-stock-fans-mark-185539705.html
• [ev_news_b7c31717] news_headline — https://www.chartmill.com/stock/quote/MSFT/news
• [ev_news_f23dcb54] news_headline — https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/06/microsoft-may-be-winning-enterprise-ai-but-when-does-the-stock-catch-up
• [ev_news_43867c7d] news_headline — https://www.chartmill.com/news/MSFT/Chartmill-55815-Microsoft-NASDAQMSFT-Strong-Growth-Meets-High-Quality-Technical-Setup
• [ev_news_ad647919] news_headline — https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/filing-2977-apple-inc-aapl-shares-sold-by-worthpointe-llc-2026-10-05
• [ev_news_db88212a] news_headline — https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/aapl
• [ev_news_6203c589] news_headline — https://stockstory.org/us/stocks/nasdaq/aapl/news/buy-or-sell/apple-aapl-buy-sell-or-hold-post-q2-earnings
• [ev_news_525795ad] news_headline — https://www.trefis.com/stock/aapl/articles/617679/what-would-it-take-for-apple-stock-to-move-higher/2026-10-06
• [ev_news_3d9988b5] news_headline — https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/morgan-stanley-lowers-apple-stock-price-target-on-limited-upside-93CH-4927362
• [ev_news_325f285c] news_headline — https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/06/apple-aapl-trading-above-analyst-targets-as-memory-costs-crimp-margin-outlook
• [ev_news_073c110e] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/tech/nasdaq-aapl/apple/news/apple-aapl-shares-enter-24-7-token-trading-plan-in-63-stock/amp
• [ev_news_b434aa05] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nasdaq-googl/alphabet/news/alphabet-googl-stock-may-be-30-below-fair-value-after-cloud
• [ev_news_b4b2080b] news_headline — https://www.chartmill.com/news/GOOGM/Chartmill-55857-Alphabet-Inc---GOOGL-6-14-051529-NASDAQGOOGM-Combines-Strong-Growth-With-a-Quality-Technical-Setup
• [ev_news_7fcb494c] news_headline — https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262201281-alphabet-googl-stock-forecast-october-6-2026
• [ev_news_861946eb] news_headline — https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/GOOG/pressreleases/5012627/alphabet-inc-wells-fargo-update-stock-analysis
• [ev_news_be4e4b0b] news_headline — https://www.investors.com/news/technology/why-gemini-4-failed-ignite-google-stock-ahead-q3-earnings
• [ev_news_7c24a70f] news_headline — https://stockstory.org/us/stocks/nasdaq/bkng/news/earnings/consumer-internet-stocks-q2-in-review-booking-nasdaqbkng-vs-peers
• [ev_news_4295827a] news_headline — https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/alphabet-goog-beat-estimates-again-151003661.html
• [ev_news_838170c2] news_headline — https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:de95ba3ff094b:0-alphabet-micron-nike-and-nvidia-are-part-of-zacks-earnings-preview
• [ev_fundamentals_0db89714] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_cdcb3e6e] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_9802ff85] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_9dd6f1fe] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_6f01fd61] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:MSFT
• [ev_fundamentals_d5ebcc9f] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:MSFT