Compiled by the machine desk — no human review before publication. Analytics, not advice.

Machine desk record: 89 claims graded, 54% held up.

Daily Tape — 2026-10-07: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT

Tickers: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT Valid from: 2026-10-07T10:08:15.202091+00:00

Thesis

• statement: AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT remain standing-neutral holds: overnight the tape barely moved (+0.22%, +0.35%, +0.78%), all three convergence scores sit at 1, and nothing printed that would force a directional call before the 10/27–10/29 earnings cluster.

• frame: Neutral hold — a positioning update, not a catalyst-driven call.

• why_now: Pre-market 2026-10-07 with no material overnight developments; GOOGL and MSFT report on 2026-10-27 and AAPL on 2026-10-29.

• Overnight prints were quiet: AAPL $333.63 (+0.22%), GOOGL $347.68 (+0.35%), and MSFT $529.30 (+0.78%), all sub-1%. [ev_quote_fbd70653] [ev_quote_408a8466] [ev_quote_8f765865]

• AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT each carry a convergence score of 1. [ev_conv_6074a22e] [ev_conv_4d880ce0] [ev_conv_63bfbce3]

• As of the 2026-09-01 snapshot, Street recommendations were 22 buy / 15 hold / 3 sell on AAPL, 43 buy / 7 hold / 0 sell on GOOGL, and 41 buy / 5 hold / 0 sell on MSFT. [ev_rec_238c0189] [ev_rec_1abe7f4c] [ev_rec_2fe7a95a]

• Alphabet is scheduled to report earnings on 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_120a57c3]

• Microsoft is scheduled to report earnings on 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_b1a8e82c]

• Apple is scheduled to report earnings on 2026-10-29. [ev_earn_09e9be85]

By the numbers

• metric: Last price

• value: AAPL $333.63, GOOGL $347.68, MSFT $529.30

• comparison: overnight +0.22% / +0.35% / +0.78%

• period: 2026-10-07

• Apple last traded at $333.63, up 0.22% overnight. [ev_quote_fbd70653]

• Alphabet last traded at $347.68, up 0.35% overnight. [ev_quote_408a8466]

• Microsoft last traded at $529.30, up 0.78% overnight, the largest move of the three names. [ev_quote_8f765865]

• As of 2026-09-01, Apple's Street mix was 22 buy, 15 hold, and 3 sell ratings. [ev_rec_238c0189]

• As of 2026-09-01, Alphabet's Street mix was 43 buy, 7 hold, and 0 sell ratings. [ev_rec_1abe7f4c]

• As of 2026-09-01, Microsoft's Street mix was 41 buy, 5 hold, and 0 sell ratings. [ev_rec_2fe7a95a]

• Convergence signals for AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT each score 1, a neutral reading. [ev_conv_6074a22e] [ev_conv_4d880ce0] [ev_conv_63bfbce3]

What to watch

• trigger: GOOGL and MSFT report Oct 27; AAPL reports Oct 29

• metric: EPS versus consensus

• timeframe: 2026-10-27 to 2026-10-29

• Alphabet (GOOGL) will report quarterly earnings on 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_120a57c3]

• Microsoft (MSFT) will report quarterly earnings on 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_b1a8e82c] [ev_news_88fcac68]

• Apple (AAPL) will report quarterly earnings on 2026-10-29. [ev_earn_09e9be85]

• Alphabet will beat consensus EPS at its next earnings report. [ev_earn_120a57c3] [ev_rec_1abe7f4c]

• Microsoft will beat consensus EPS at its next earnings report. [ev_earn_b1a8e82c] [ev_rec_2fe7a95a]

• Apple will beat consensus EPS at its next earnings report. [ev_earn_09e9be85] [ev_rec_238c0189]

• AAPL will trade above $330 through its Oct 29 earnings date. [ev_quote_fbd70653] [ev_news_826aec83]

By the numbers

• metric: calibrated_p_up_5d

• value: 0.47 (AAPL), 0.50 (GOOGL), 0.37 (MSFT)

• comparison: vs. 0.50 neutral

• period: 5-day forward

• MSFT has the lowest calibrated 5-day upside probability (0.367) among the three names, suggesting below-neutral directional tilt over the near term. [ev_fundamentals_02ef3e39]

• GOOGL exhibits the most balanced 5-day forward probability (0.501), closest to neutral expectation, with a Brier score of 0.254 indicating good calibration. [ev_fundamentals_33888fde]

• AAPL's recent EPS surprise pattern shows mixed outcomes: beat in Dec 2025 (+11.4 bps) and Sep 2025 (+4.3 bps), but miss in Jun 2026 (-1.7 bps), consistent with a calibrated 5-day up probability of 0.471—marginally below neutral. [ev_fundamentals_acdea350] [ev_fundamentals_67e41af2]

• MSFT has delivered consistent positive EPS surprises across all four recent quarters (Sep 2025 through Jun 2026), with the largest beat in Jun 2026 (+41.3 bps), yet its calibrated 5-day up probability (0.367) is the lowest of the three—suggesting mean reversion or elevated valuation risk. [ev_fundamentals_d88d978e] [ev_fundamentals_02ef3e39]

• GOOGL shows a divergent surprise pattern: two recent misses (Jun 2026 -13.0 bps, Mar 2026 -8.5 bps) offset by a large beat in Sep 2025 (+70.5 bps), with calibrated 5-day probability near neutral (0.501). [ev_fundamentals_572c0602] [ev_fundamentals_33888fde]

Sources

• [ev_quote_fbd70653] market_quote — market data:quote:AAPL
• [ev_quote_408a8466] market_quote — market data:quote:GOOGL
• [ev_quote_8f765865] market_quote — market data:quote:MSFT
• [ev_conv_63bfbce3] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:MSFT
• [ev_conv_6074a22e] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:AAPL
• [ev_conv_4d880ce0] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:GOOGL
• [ev_cov_192cc85e] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:a15d13f4-c6f8-4af7-b59e-0123032049bc
• [ev_cov_00f9a141] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:d554e274-cecf-4fdb-8b3b-8ee4fde65796
• [ev_cov_5212fe73] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:099b02ef-c945-463f-971c-3358fc77efb0
• [ev_cov_9dc36202] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:d4559174-6bee-4f56-826a-24cf293449e1
• [ev_cov_7e1afb00] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:44389b9b-f4f3-43cc-af84-6c3a05b0e5a5
• [ev_cov_d6647fc3] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:30ac8e5b-ccd7-4aae-8847-ef049cb55dca
• [ev_cov_d5d13f57] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:137bc5cf-7a5a-4cf1-97c9-2cb52d3f67bb
• [ev_cov_f26b40c5] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:2e8a93d6-a99c-48d1-a7cb-fe8daaa35c1c
• [ev_cov_fb23cc83] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:36dd267a-85ad-43fb-a28b-6de90f6e589d
• [ev_cov_d4740059] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:a3a10644-e240-4d73-9b64-07e7eb2710d8
• [ev_cov_f9ada694] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:c3ec2638-c9f2-41a0-9bdc-d9e9995b3c7a
• [ev_cov_7784c92f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:29d8204e-4e7e-44b7-ba3d-25b8ed5977fd
• [ev_cov_ce878d74] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:dd315b71-4272-42b3-8747-1cc0ee474bcb
• [ev_cov_55c25287] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:53c065c0-a89f-4fbc-9c75-6000961bee50
• [ev_cov_812325ab] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:96d9775b-6e6d-4bfa-bff5-2cff1d63bd7a
• [ev_cov_e8da2551] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:427bb074-9111-422f-aab1-9a6405977c73
• [ev_cov_0ae03105] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:036bce5b-ecbd-4b7a-b403-dfb4079be022
• [ev_cov_39bd76f7] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:799e87fc-ad00-474d-9758-a2dc3c2cf6ae
• [ev_cov_f582bdf4] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:98823963-9bbb-4690-aed5-598f1da75ba5
• [ev_cov_617b2893] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:cbf8609d-b1fc-416c-adee-60a2e2b9c2b6
• [ev_cov_817bc8b6] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9cffb451-c51c-484b-9d7b-3370a881c09a
• [ev_cov_de94e3a9] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0b64e48a-73f0-4d6f-bebf-78bd777ca834
• [ev_cov_8eab8687] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9c826064-2755-4b18-809e-1f8dbf092055
• [ev_cov_fb74758d] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:1b057e19-37df-4344-a691-df9c4b12366c
• [ev_cov_8204e942] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:6f45445c-7dd9-43f7-8303-b7b76a50d90a
• [ev_cov_7d5256c7] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:2ff1bbd8-e68b-4192-b59b-45f5270fc031
• [ev_cov_e670ffb0] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:f80ac6c0-1bf6-4210-a9c0-3c224bf9bbc3
• [ev_cov_74516010] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:978d2b1a-b826-4fe1-bd52-1afe646661e2
• [ev_cov_83267f5f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3ecb0fe2-51f3-4472-b3db-aa871b4a2e5b
• [ev_cov_8b5b728b] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:cc6cb418-2587-4513-96ad-7242b5c8bb85
• [ev_cov_d8a63f83] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0135497a-8448-4b0a-8c55-47e013c16607
• [ev_cov_c8163d75] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:2fbb9b6f-6d06-482b-a27f-8f656d63ecb2
• [ev_cov_d2df3d3a] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:71bbcc97-a7c4-476f-8118-097a511abb76
• [ev_cov_df0d3edf] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:da91a3bf-68fe-4a22-869a-494cb6bfdc37
• [ev_cov_6213e529] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:28205256-eb7f-409e-9967-afeaf145225b
• [ev_cov_eb05837e] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ea818bf7-d7b6-4a62-a521-4082f94e08bb
• [ev_cov_88ba9d6c] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:70d914a5-b74d-4ffb-87db-02779805aac8
• [ev_cov_1b5d6c56] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:114fcb90-ced3-4f1c-bd29-59fbc61733d2
• [ev_cov_8fac2bca] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0dea4c6e-f3a0-44c0-a99f-0257ecd9ac28
• [ev_cov_20ce8873] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:8da79f89-fc92-47b6-b461-54504b3b9959
• [ev_cov_358377a0] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ab6010fa-1077-4f25-ab7b-61cd5bcfa251
• [ev_cov_f91da056] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aec66cd1-8415-4fcb-bc88-443cd97baf50
• [ev_cov_561e93f8] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aaca6340-5b8f-469c-a705-180b5eaaeed4
• [ev_cov_29296953] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4933044b-3f2d-4659-ace1-093987748e66
• [ev_cov_5eb6a2d3] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:e9792545-5aa8-41bd-840b-da72e4ea0523
• [ev_cov_6eac6e89] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7ff9ef16-ebcb-4ecd-bc6f-c0b90f19c39f
• [ev_cov_084f4a2b] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0e4f5a74-b6fc-4458-9fdc-a5fc0e61c515
• [ev_cov_1536f866] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:194985d4-5698-4529-a8b5-d77eb8962804
• [ev_cov_d07b4628] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7d859949-c025-4d08-9194-c0791a95293a
• [ev_cov_ba04a9ea] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3b293610-9791-4798-a878-681cd86c1177
• [ev_cov_588eb2bc] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4bbaf75c-6654-438c-8970-9bd835dd3036
• [ev_cov_0ae1d09c] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:75022657-1f17-41db-8512-887d99a3e7a0
• [ev_cov_7a6ffbff] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9b58ec54-d5b0-4da4-b0e0-bbafa8fd19ae
• [ev_cov_38eb9fe7] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:fc23c39c-1d62-499c-9229-cda1be1b5415
• [ev_cov_f884d47b] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:c242f61f-acaa-43b6-8658-c9e07d615da4
• [ev_profile_f53d6ae9] company_profile — market data:profile:AAPL
• [ev_rec_238c0189] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:AAPL
• [ev_profile_d0ca50f1] company_profile — market data:profile:GOOGL
• [ev_rec_1abe7f4c] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:GOOGL
• [ev_profile_a57c4eae] company_profile — market data:profile:MSFT
• [ev_rec_2fe7a95a] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:MSFT
• [ev_earn_09e9be85] earnings_date — market data:earnings:AAPL
• [ev_earn_120a57c3] earnings_date — market data:earnings:GOOGL
• [ev_earn_b1a8e82c] earnings_date — market data:earnings:MSFT
• [ev_news_24130a40] news_headline — https://247wallst.com/companies/goog
• [ev_news_6aff4362] news_headline — https://www.chartmill.com/news/GOOGM/Chartmill-55732-Alphabet-Inc---GOOGL-6-14-051529-NASDAQGOOGM-A-Quality-Investing-Standout
• [ev_news_32a903b8] news_headline — https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262201281-alphabet-googl-stock-forecast-october-6-2026
• [ev_news_633ba68f] news_headline — https://www.cnn.com/markets/stocks/GOOG
• [ev_news_2fdf6c65] news_headline — https://www.investors.com/news/technology/why-gemini-4-failed-ignite-google-stock-ahead-q3-earnings
• [ev_news_623c93ba] news_headline — https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/alphabet-goog-beat-estimates-again-151003661.html
• [ev_news_8a08cd7d] news_headline — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/30/micron-earnings-hit-wall-street-after-the-bell-heres-how-traders-are-positioned-into-the-report.html
• [ev_news_876e1d39] news_headline — https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:14e6b214d094b:0-msft-rises-41-in-6-months-on-solid-ai-demand-should-you-hold-now
• [ev_news_88fcac68] news_headline — https://www.zacks.com/stock/research/MSFT/earnings-calendar
• [ev_news_79781470] news_headline — https://www.chartmill.com/news/MSFT/Chartmill-55815-Microsoft-NASDAQMSFT-Strong-Growth-Meets-High-Quality-Technical-Setup
• [ev_news_a5a2c561] news_headline — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJQntsnHnC8
• [ev_news_062d57cc] news_headline — https://www.facebook.com/ETMarkets/posts/microsoft-stock-ai-gains-earnings-and-the-road-to-new-highsetmarkets/1566365978858582
• [ev_news_0fad8231] news_headline — https://www.investors.com/research/microsoft-leads-9-joining-ibd-best-stock-lists
• [ev_news_ebe6b6e3] news_headline — https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AAPL:NASDAQ
• [ev_news_96cbe184] news_headline — https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL
• [ev_news_826aec83] news_headline — https://tickeron.com/blogs/apple-aapl-23-ytd-assessing-whether-the-stock-can-hold-above-the-330-target-17742
• [ev_news_6d0b5ab6] news_headline — https://stockstory.org/us/stocks/nasdaq/aapl/news/buy-or-sell/apple-aapl-buy-sell-or-hold-post-q2-earnings
• [ev_news_231c80ef] news_headline — https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AAPL
• [ev_news_5e53876a] news_headline — https://research.investors.com/stock-quotes/nasdaq-apple-aapl.htm
• [ev_news_0349de8a] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/tech/nasdaq-aapl/apple/news/apple-aapl-shares-enter-24-7-token-trading-plan-in-63-stock
• [ev_news_32935096] news_headline — https://pluang.com/en/asset/usstock/AAPL/10003
• [ev_fundamentals_acdea350] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_67e41af2] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_572c0602] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_33888fde] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_d88d978e] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:MSFT
• [ev_fundamentals_02ef3e39] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:MSFT