Compiled by the machine desk — no human review before publication. Analytics, not advice.

Machine desk record: 85 claims graded, 56% held up.

Daily Tape — 2026-10-02: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT

Tickers: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT Valid from: 2026-10-02T10:06:50.244990+00:00

By the numbers

• metric: Overnight tape

• value: GOOGL -1.7% to $338.24

• comparison: Largest move vs AAPL -0.81% ($330.32) and MSFT -0.02% ($512.8); GOOGL was the only name down more than 1%

• period: Overnight into 2026-10-02 pre-market

• Alphabet (GOOGL) last traded at $338.24, down 1.7% overnight, the largest decline among AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT. [ev_quote_731a505f] [ev_quote_55cd3713] [ev_quote_890be44e]

• Apple (AAPL) last traded at $330.32, down 0.81% overnight. [ev_quote_55cd3713]

• Microsoft (MSFT) last traded at $512.8, essentially unchanged overnight at -0.02%. [ev_quote_890be44e]

• AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT each print a convergence-signal score of 1. [ev_conv_2d9910a9] [ev_conv_b8229c1d] [ev_conv_c5283ca1]

Thesis

• statement: Standing theses stay neutral on AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT: Street is still buy-heavy on Microsoft (41 buy / 5 hold / 0 sell) and Alphabet (43 / 7 / 0), more mixed on Apple (22 / 15 / 3), and convergence scores of 1 argue for technical stability rather than a frame break.

• frame: Neutral hold across the mega-cap tape; wait for the late-October prints.

• why_now: Quiet overnight tape with no fresh catalysts; restating the baseline before MSFT and GOOGL report on 2026-10-27 and AAPL on 2026-10-29.

• Microsoft's September 2026 Street book stands at 41 buy, 5 hold, and 0 sell ratings. [ev_rec_7ac5d5d3]

• Alphabet's September 2026 Street book stands at 43 buy, 7 hold, and 0 sell ratings. [ev_rec_8b19eda6]

• Apple's September 2026 Street book is more mixed at 22 buy, 15 hold, and 3 sell ratings. [ev_rec_09289c23]

• AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT each currently carry a convergence-signal score of 1, consistent with technical stability around the standing neutral frame. [ev_conv_2d9910a9] [ev_conv_b8229c1d] [ev_conv_c5283ca1]

• Recent commentary has described Microsoft stock as fully valued or edging into overvalued territory, a tension with the 41-buy Street book that keeps the standing frame neutral rather than outright bullish. [ev_news_8c063cdb] [ev_news_b693148b] [ev_rec_7ac5d5d3]

• The next fundamental checkpoint is clustered in late October: Microsoft and Alphabet report on 2026-10-27 and Apple on 2026-10-29. [ev_earn_a4967612] [ev_earn_3f85d870] [ev_earn_66b15aba]

What to watch

• trigger: MSFT and GOOGL report on 2026-10-27; AAPL reports on 2026-10-29

• metric: EPS versus consensus

• timeframe: by 2026-10-29

• Microsoft is scheduled to report quarterly earnings on 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_a4967612]

• Alphabet is scheduled to report quarterly earnings on 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_3f85d870]

• Apple is scheduled to report quarterly earnings on 2026-10-29. [ev_earn_66b15aba]

• Microsoft will beat EPS consensus at its 2026-10-27 earnings print. [ev_earn_a4967612] [ev_rec_7ac5d5d3] [ev_news_3ab7f82b]

• Alphabet will beat EPS consensus at its 2026-10-27 earnings print. [ev_earn_3f85d870] [ev_rec_8b19eda6]

• Apple will beat EPS consensus at its 2026-10-29 earnings print. [ev_earn_66b15aba] [ev_rec_09289c23]

By the numbers

• metric: calibrated_p_up_5d

• value: 0.396 (AAPL) vs 0.578 (GOOGL) vs 0.343 (MSFT)

• comparison: GOOGL > AAPL > MSFT

• period: 5-day forward

• AAPL has missed EPS in 1 of last 4 quarters (June 2026), with a mean surprise of +0.0153 across the trailing four-quarter window. [ev_fundamentals_a3023b0d]

• AAPL's calibrated 5-day upside probability is 0.396, below the base rate of 0.637, indicating model-adjusted downside bias. [ev_fundamentals_a2df938e]

• GOOGL has missed EPS in 2 of last 4 quarters (June and March 2026), but posted a +0.7046 surprise in September 2025; mean surprise is +0.1509. [ev_fundamentals_d80433a4]

• GOOGL's calibrated 5-day upside probability is 0.578, above its base rate of 0.469, indicating model-adjusted upside bias. [ev_fundamentals_3a57358c]

• MSFT has beaten EPS in all 4 trailing quarters, with a mean surprise of +0.2589; most recent beat (June 2026) was +0.4126. [ev_fundamentals_8db27bef]

• MSFT's calibrated 5-day upside probability is 0.343, below its base rate of 0.540, indicating model-adjusted downside bias despite consistent earnings beats. [ev_fundamentals_a93f3807]

Sources

• [ev_conv_c5283ca1] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:MSFT
• [ev_conv_2d9910a9] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:AAPL
• [ev_conv_b8229c1d] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:GOOGL
• [ev_quote_890be44e] market_quote — market data:quote:MSFT
• [ev_quote_55cd3713] market_quote — market data:quote:AAPL
• [ev_quote_731a505f] market_quote — market data:quote:GOOGL
• [ev_cov_b2f9c0b3] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:d554e274-cecf-4fdb-8b3b-8ee4fde65796
• [ev_cov_6c4c93b2] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:099b02ef-c945-463f-971c-3358fc77efb0
• [ev_cov_77e44afd] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:d4559174-6bee-4f56-826a-24cf293449e1
• [ev_cov_2f7c54ef] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:44389b9b-f4f3-43cc-af84-6c3a05b0e5a5
• [ev_cov_8f1b076b] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:30ac8e5b-ccd7-4aae-8847-ef049cb55dca
• [ev_cov_e796ddb8] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:137bc5cf-7a5a-4cf1-97c9-2cb52d3f67bb
• [ev_cov_f07039e6] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:2e8a93d6-a99c-48d1-a7cb-fe8daaa35c1c
• [ev_cov_58391d9c] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:36dd267a-85ad-43fb-a28b-6de90f6e589d
• [ev_cov_0bb27595] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:a3a10644-e240-4d73-9b64-07e7eb2710d8
• [ev_cov_c430ad92] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:c3ec2638-c9f2-41a0-9bdc-d9e9995b3c7a
• [ev_cov_0226b562] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:29d8204e-4e7e-44b7-ba3d-25b8ed5977fd
• [ev_cov_39468474] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:dd315b71-4272-42b3-8747-1cc0ee474bcb
• [ev_cov_4efaa807] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:53c065c0-a89f-4fbc-9c75-6000961bee50
• [ev_cov_2a84f42b] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:96d9775b-6e6d-4bfa-bff5-2cff1d63bd7a
• [ev_cov_0fcbbadb] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:427bb074-9111-422f-aab1-9a6405977c73
• [ev_cov_25a89b0f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:036bce5b-ecbd-4b7a-b403-dfb4079be022
• [ev_cov_1fb52c01] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:799e87fc-ad00-474d-9758-a2dc3c2cf6ae
• [ev_cov_c9eb9de8] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:98823963-9bbb-4690-aed5-598f1da75ba5
• [ev_cov_60e3cac2] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:cbf8609d-b1fc-416c-adee-60a2e2b9c2b6
• [ev_cov_b4d324b0] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9cffb451-c51c-484b-9d7b-3370a881c09a
• [ev_cov_37cea184] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0b64e48a-73f0-4d6f-bebf-78bd777ca834
• [ev_cov_04e08dd4] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9c826064-2755-4b18-809e-1f8dbf092055
• [ev_cov_5c13b80b] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:1b057e19-37df-4344-a691-df9c4b12366c
• [ev_cov_35551915] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:6f45445c-7dd9-43f7-8303-b7b76a50d90a
• [ev_cov_3285398e] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:2ff1bbd8-e68b-4192-b59b-45f5270fc031
• [ev_cov_d8461cb7] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:f80ac6c0-1bf6-4210-a9c0-3c224bf9bbc3
• [ev_cov_54442ba2] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:978d2b1a-b826-4fe1-bd52-1afe646661e2
• [ev_cov_be63c396] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3ecb0fe2-51f3-4472-b3db-aa871b4a2e5b
• [ev_cov_04611bdf] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:cc6cb418-2587-4513-96ad-7242b5c8bb85
• [ev_cov_f352b601] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0135497a-8448-4b0a-8c55-47e013c16607
• [ev_cov_176c74ac] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:2fbb9b6f-6d06-482b-a27f-8f656d63ecb2
• [ev_cov_fa818142] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:71bbcc97-a7c4-476f-8118-097a511abb76
• [ev_cov_5ade5371] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:da91a3bf-68fe-4a22-869a-494cb6bfdc37
• [ev_cov_4202ef21] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:28205256-eb7f-409e-9967-afeaf145225b
• [ev_cov_cc58b9ba] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ea818bf7-d7b6-4a62-a521-4082f94e08bb
• [ev_cov_784f8141] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:70d914a5-b74d-4ffb-87db-02779805aac8
• [ev_cov_55fcd870] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:114fcb90-ced3-4f1c-bd29-59fbc61733d2
• [ev_cov_7c0578d4] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0dea4c6e-f3a0-44c0-a99f-0257ecd9ac28
• [ev_cov_f15d7a3e] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:8da79f89-fc92-47b6-b461-54504b3b9959
• [ev_cov_09e1d148] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ab6010fa-1077-4f25-ab7b-61cd5bcfa251
• [ev_cov_8ffe81de] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aec66cd1-8415-4fcb-bc88-443cd97baf50
• [ev_cov_6fd7510f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aaca6340-5b8f-469c-a705-180b5eaaeed4
• [ev_cov_c46fde78] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4933044b-3f2d-4659-ace1-093987748e66
• [ev_cov_1daae327] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:e9792545-5aa8-41bd-840b-da72e4ea0523
• [ev_cov_68f33226] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7ff9ef16-ebcb-4ecd-bc6f-c0b90f19c39f
• [ev_cov_cccb928b] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0e4f5a74-b6fc-4458-9fdc-a5fc0e61c515
• [ev_cov_b1fb04de] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:194985d4-5698-4529-a8b5-d77eb8962804
• [ev_cov_8d9fbe36] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7d859949-c025-4d08-9194-c0791a95293a
• [ev_cov_713e333d] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3b293610-9791-4798-a878-681cd86c1177
• [ev_cov_fe78772b] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4bbaf75c-6654-438c-8970-9bd835dd3036
• [ev_cov_4ecbeffc] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:75022657-1f17-41db-8512-887d99a3e7a0
• [ev_cov_bfd3d221] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9b58ec54-d5b0-4da4-b0e0-bbafa8fd19ae
• [ev_cov_69f0a863] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:fc23c39c-1d62-499c-9229-cda1be1b5415
• [ev_cov_66e64179] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:c242f61f-acaa-43b6-8658-c9e07d615da4
• [ev_profile_a04c4ce1] company_profile — market data:profile:MSFT
• [ev_rec_7ac5d5d3] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:MSFT
• [ev_profile_7054cc68] company_profile — market data:profile:AAPL
• [ev_rec_09289c23] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:AAPL
• [ev_earn_a4967612] earnings_date — market data:earnings:MSFT
• [ev_earn_66b15aba] earnings_date — market data:earnings:AAPL
• [ev_profile_62057ce9] company_profile — market data:profile:GOOGL
• [ev_rec_8b19eda6] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:GOOGL
• [ev_earn_3f85d870] earnings_date — market data:earnings:GOOGL
• [ev_news_2ab8fa21] news_headline — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/heres-why-microsoft-msft-fell-204504302.html
• [ev_news_3ab7f82b] news_headline — https://www.gurufocus.com/news/9105834/microsoft-msft-expected-to-maintain-strong-growth-amid-ai-momentum
• [ev_news_8c063cdb] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/software/nasdaq-msft/microsoft/news/microsoft-msft-stock-looks-fully-valued-despite-fresh-ai-lia/amp
• [ev_news_4e05f8c0] news_headline — https://www.marketbeat.com/articles/microsofts-ai-spending-didnt-changewall-streets-view-of-it-did
• [ev_news_9ca2acf2] news_headline — https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/26/09/62001645/microsoft-gives-copilot-a-major-ai-makeover
• [ev_news_347dd9fc] news_headline — https://www.trefis.com/stock/msft/articles/617316/which-dates-could-move-microsoft-stock-most/2026-10-01
• [ev_news_d5c0cb24] news_headline — https://qz.com/microsoft-stock-best-quarter-1998-ai-momentum-100126
• [ev_news_b693148b] news_headline — https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/29/microsoft-is-edging-into-overvalued-territory-now
• [ev_news_316da8e2] news_headline — https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/alphabet-googl-stock-sinks-market-204505741.html
• [ev_news_463a45fe] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nasdaq-googl/alphabet/news/how-gemini-4-argon-will-impact-google-stock-investors
• [ev_news_b721f40b] news_headline — https://seekingalpha.com/article/4950475-alphabet-stock-buy-before-it-cashes-in-on-its-tpus
• [ev_news_08e6454e] news_headline — https://es.tradingview.com/news/zacks:c8e2fdefe094b:0-what-will-the-q3-earnings-season-show
• [ev_news_07f8e196] news_headline — https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/09/26/history-says-alphabet-stock-s-15-pullbacks-have-usually-paid-off-within-a-year
• [ev_news_a1dcedbb] news_headline — https://www.chartmill.com/news/GOOGL/Chartmill-55643-These-dow-jones-stocks-are-moving-in-todays-session
• [ev_news_3968425b] news_headline — https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-movers-2b7f643b
• [ev_news_f6c3c507] news_headline — https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/filing-apple-inc-aapl-stock-sold-by-cullinan-associates-inc-2026-10-02
• [ev_news_866ce729] news_headline — https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL?chain_id=Name1K9-3FXPhg.1lbtt00&global_content=%7B%22promote_id%22%3A14282%2C%22sub_promote_id%22%3A29%2C%22f%22%3A%22mm%2Fca%2Flearn%2Fs-p-500-index-in-singapore%22%7D&p=AAPL
• [ev_news_a1615f45] news_headline — https://www.cnn.com/markets/stocks/AAPL
• [ev_news_a0dce818] news_headline — https://www.chartmill.com/stock/quote/AAPL/profile
• [ev_news_550dd39f] news_headline — https://pluang.com/en/asset/usstock/AAPL/10003
• [ev_fundamentals_a3023b0d] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_a2df938e] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_d80433a4] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_3a57358c] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_8db27bef] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:MSFT
• [ev_fundamentals_a93f3807] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:MSFT