Compiled by the machine desk — no human review before publication. Analytics, not advice.

Machine desk record: 53 claims graded, 58% held up.

Daily Tape — 2026-09-10: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT

Tickers: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT Valid from: 2026-09-10T10:08:35.354090+00:00

By the numbers

• metric: Session price change (GOOGL / AAPL / MSFT)

• value: -2.28% / -0.28% / -0.47%

• comparison: GOOGL led a quiet Mag-3 session lower; AAPL and MSFT were nearly unchanged

• period: last session into 2026-09-10

• GOOGL last quoted at $330.65, down 2.28% — the largest decline among AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT. [ev_quote_618fd10c] [ev_quote_c6934e52] [ev_quote_72c92310]

• AAPL last quoted at $315.34, down 0.28%. [ev_quote_c6934e52]

• MSFT last quoted at $491.65, down 0.47%. [ev_quote_72c92310]

Thesis

• statement: Neutral remains the standing view on AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT. Overnight tape was lower — GOOGL -2.28%, MSFT -0.47%, AAPL -0.28% — but the moves look like noise against an unchanged frame, with no thesis-breaking catalyst in hand and earnings still six weeks out.

• frame: standing-neutral / continuity

• why_now: A quiet Magnificent-3 session with only incremental price action, a multi-week Daily Tape series still carrying this trio, and the next fundamental prints not due until 2026-10-27 (MSFT, GOOGL) and 2026-10-28 (AAPL).

• AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT last printed $315.34 (-0.28%), $330.65 (-2.28%), and $491.65 (-0.47%) respectively, with GOOGL the only name showing a move larger than 50 basis points. [ev_quote_c6934e52] [ev_quote_618fd10c] [ev_quote_72c92310]

• As of the 2026-09-01 snapshot, Street recommendations remain buy-heavy on GOOGL (43 buy / 7 hold / 0 sell) and MSFT (41 / 5 / 0) and more mixed on AAPL (22 / 15 / 3). [ev_rec_998c932d] [ev_rec_0064a24e] [ev_rec_4a4add5e]

• The next scheduled earnings dates cluster on 2026-10-27 for MSFT and GOOGL and 2026-10-28 for AAPL. [ev_earn_9a8bebb5] [ev_earn_36fee5bb] [ev_earn_f6364583]

• GOOGL holds above $315 through 2026-09-24, treating the -2.28% overnight drop and 200-day moving-average test as tape rather than a breakdown. [ev_quote_618fd10c] [ev_news_b7aca830]

• AAPL holds above $300 through 2026-09-24, consistent with reading the -0.28% print as noise inside a standing-neutral frame. [ev_quote_c6934e52]

• MSFT holds above $470 through 2026-09-24, consistent with reading the -0.47% print as noise inside a standing-neutral frame. [ev_quote_72c92310]

What to watch

• trigger: MSFT and GOOGL earnings on 2026-10-27; AAPL on 2026-10-28

• metric: EPS versus consensus

• timeframe: October 27-28, 2026

• Microsoft is scheduled to report earnings on 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_9a8bebb5]

• Alphabet is scheduled to report earnings on 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_36fee5bb]

• Apple is scheduled to report earnings on 2026-10-28. [ev_earn_f6364583]

• AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT each currently register a convergence signal. [ev_conv_e14ce028] [ev_conv_6e3bce28] [ev_conv_1bc47bf5]

By the numbers

• metric: calibrated_p_up_5d

• value: 0.388512

• comparison: lowest

• period: 5 days

• MSFT has posted four consecutive earnings beats over the past four quarters (surprises: +0.3909, +0.1055, +0.1268, +0.4126), with the most recent June 2026 beat of 4.74 vs. 4.3274 estimate representing a 9.5% positive surprise. [ev_fundamentals_10dc4974]

• AAPL's recent earnings pattern is mixed: two beats (+0.0425, +0.1143) and two misses (-0.0171, +0.0216 is marginal beat), with the June 2026 miss of 1.91 vs. 1.9271 estimate marking a reversal from the strong December 2025 beat of +4.2%. [ev_fundamentals_a3b361fc]

• GOOGL shows deteriorating earnings surprise trend: two consecutive misses in 2026 (June: -0.1298, March: -0.0851) following a strong September 2025 beat of +0.7046 (29.4% surprise), suggesting momentum loss. [ev_fundamentals_34eabe60]

• MSFT has the lowest calibrated 5-day upside probability (38.9%) among the three names, despite the strongest recent earnings beat streak. [ev_fundamentals_72776837]

• GOOGL's calibrated 5-day upside probability (51.7%) is near-neutral, consistent with recent earnings misses offsetting the base rate of 51.3%. [ev_fundamentals_b421d58c]

• AAPL's calibrated 5-day upside probability (30.8%) is the lowest among the three, well below the base rate of 67.3%, indicating model-assessed headwinds despite mixed recent earnings. [ev_fundamentals_b506c937]

Sources

• [ev_conv_1bc47bf5] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:MSFT
• [ev_conv_e14ce028] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:AAPL
• [ev_conv_6e3bce28] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:GOOGL
• [ev_quote_618fd10c] market_quote — market data:quote:GOOGL
• [ev_quote_c6934e52] market_quote — market data:quote:AAPL
• [ev_quote_72c92310] market_quote — market data:quote:MSFT
• [ev_cov_dfb62b82] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0b64e48a-73f0-4d6f-bebf-78bd777ca834
• [ev_cov_75753882] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9c826064-2755-4b18-809e-1f8dbf092055
• [ev_cov_0ba41201] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:1b057e19-37df-4344-a691-df9c4b12366c
• [ev_cov_7ead67fc] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:6f45445c-7dd9-43f7-8303-b7b76a50d90a
• [ev_cov_310c7dc1] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:2ff1bbd8-e68b-4192-b59b-45f5270fc031
• [ev_cov_40583e27] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:f80ac6c0-1bf6-4210-a9c0-3c224bf9bbc3
• [ev_cov_a5cacdd3] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:978d2b1a-b826-4fe1-bd52-1afe646661e2
• [ev_cov_f6d534e4] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3ecb0fe2-51f3-4472-b3db-aa871b4a2e5b
• [ev_cov_04722cf3] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:cc6cb418-2587-4513-96ad-7242b5c8bb85
• [ev_cov_e36affbc] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:cbf8609d-b1fc-416c-adee-60a2e2b9c2b6
• [ev_cov_307f58c3] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0135497a-8448-4b0a-8c55-47e013c16607
• [ev_cov_3fbf6025] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:2fbb9b6f-6d06-482b-a27f-8f656d63ecb2
• [ev_cov_cbd3b2fa] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:71bbcc97-a7c4-476f-8118-097a511abb76
• [ev_cov_73f6854b] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:da91a3bf-68fe-4a22-869a-494cb6bfdc37
• [ev_cov_17bbe5a8] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:28205256-eb7f-409e-9967-afeaf145225b
• [ev_cov_82ebb4df] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ea818bf7-d7b6-4a62-a521-4082f94e08bb
• [ev_cov_efb178cd] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:70d914a5-b74d-4ffb-87db-02779805aac8
• [ev_cov_6d9598aa] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:114fcb90-ced3-4f1c-bd29-59fbc61733d2
• [ev_cov_ef69cf3c] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0dea4c6e-f3a0-44c0-a99f-0257ecd9ac28
• [ev_cov_4d268875] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:8da79f89-fc92-47b6-b461-54504b3b9959
• [ev_cov_62cc4d37] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:96d9775b-6e6d-4bfa-bff5-2cff1d63bd7a
• [ev_cov_fc2423dc] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ab6010fa-1077-4f25-ab7b-61cd5bcfa251
• [ev_cov_c71ab070] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aec66cd1-8415-4fcb-bc88-443cd97baf50
• [ev_cov_838d8c97] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aaca6340-5b8f-469c-a705-180b5eaaeed4
• [ev_cov_2d19144d] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4933044b-3f2d-4659-ace1-093987748e66
• [ev_cov_215b0f50] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:e9792545-5aa8-41bd-840b-da72e4ea0523
• [ev_cov_546cc32c] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7ff9ef16-ebcb-4ecd-bc6f-c0b90f19c39f
• [ev_cov_42d632e9] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0e4f5a74-b6fc-4458-9fdc-a5fc0e61c515
• [ev_cov_e32b7c60] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:194985d4-5698-4529-a8b5-d77eb8962804
• [ev_cov_b9adf893] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7d859949-c025-4d08-9194-c0791a95293a
• [ev_cov_db9c2de1] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3b293610-9791-4798-a878-681cd86c1177
• [ev_cov_e2bee344] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4bbaf75c-6654-438c-8970-9bd835dd3036
• [ev_cov_3d2cb8bc] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:75022657-1f17-41db-8512-887d99a3e7a0
• [ev_cov_6aeef254] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9b58ec54-d5b0-4da4-b0e0-bbafa8fd19ae
• [ev_cov_7bdc1656] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:fc23c39c-1d62-499c-9229-cda1be1b5415
• [ev_cov_a81be9d1] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:c242f61f-acaa-43b6-8658-c9e07d615da4
• [ev_profile_c6fc8cb2] company_profile — market data:profile:MSFT
• [ev_rec_0064a24e] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:MSFT
• [ev_profile_2347fadd] company_profile — market data:profile:AAPL
• [ev_rec_4a4add5e] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:AAPL
• [ev_earn_9a8bebb5] earnings_date — market data:earnings:MSFT
• [ev_profile_ee8732b2] company_profile — market data:profile:GOOGL
• [ev_rec_998c932d] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:GOOGL
• [ev_earn_f6364583] earnings_date — market data:earnings:AAPL
• [ev_earn_36fee5bb] earnings_date — market data:earnings:GOOGL
• [ev_news_28deaee3] news_headline — [https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Alphabet+Stock+(GOOGL](https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Alphabet+Stock+(GOOGL)
• [ev_news_9bea6c96] news_headline — https://seekingalpha.com/article/4942985-alphabet-ai-pivot-creates-a-new-frontier-for-growth
• [ev_news_50dc53fe] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nasdaq-googl/alphabet/news/alphabet-googl-pours-13-billion-into-finland-ai-hubs-and-pat
• [ev_news_b7aca830] news_headline — https://www.xtb.com/int/market-analysis/news-and-research/technical-analysis-alphabet-shares-fall-2-and-test-the-200-day-moving-average
• [ev_news_f21efdde] news_headline — https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:7095e463f094b:0-alphabet-s-roic-is-strong-but-is-googl-stock-a-buy-now
• [ev_news_1217202b] news_headline — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/jim-cramer-alphabet-googl-don-171250820.html
• [ev_news_dd311583] news_headline — https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/GOOG/pressreleases/4495235/is-alphabet-stock-undervalued
• [ev_news_68827d55] news_headline — https://www.cnn.com/markets/stocks/AAPL
• [ev_news_0cbc00a1] news_headline — https://www.barchart.com/story/news/4461863/ai-laggard-apple-is-sitting-pretty-but-aapl-stock-might-be-running-out-of-room-to-outperform
• [ev_news_905ca661] news_headline — https://www.investors.com/research/ibd-stock-analysis/apple-stock-finds-massive-ai-fueled-demand-breakout-ahead
• [ev_news_e04da5d8] news_headline — https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/09/07/tim-cook-delivered-a-2720-total-return-over-15-yea
• [ev_news_4afdf949] news_headline — https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/07/apple-just-made-a-move-most-investors-overlooked-this-is-why-i-keep-buying-the-stock
• [ev_news_4d876c13] news_headline — https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/article/how-apple-stock-usually-reacts-to-big-iphone-reveal-events-152915777.html
• [ev_news_463e042c] news_headline — https://seekingalpha.com/article/4943527-apple-i-dont-see-any-new-ideas-that-could-be-bigger-than-the-iphone
• [ev_news_d88d29a2] news_headline — https://www.thestreet.com/investing/microsoft-drops-101-9-billion-surprise-as-ai-reshapes-company
• [ev_news_9ba3f09d] news_headline — https://seekingalpha.com/article/4942934-nvidia-the-market-will-come-to-its-senses-eventually
• [ev_news_f211702a] news_headline — https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/earnings-virco-manufacturing-nasdaq-virc-posts-quarterly-earnings-results-beats-estimates-by-048-eps-2026-09-04/
• [ev_news_e2639175] news_headline — https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-sp500-nasdaq-august-jobs-report-lululemon-lulu/
• [ev_news_f501c810] news_headline — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/03/fridays-big-stock-stories-whats-likely-to-move-the-market.html
• [ev_news_7846151d] news_headline — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/03/were-lifting-our-price-targets-on-2-stocks-that-have-shaken-off-ai-disruption-concerns.html
• [ev_news_be135baf] news_headline — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/04/here-are-our-top-10-things-to-watch-in-the-stock-market-friday.html
• [ev_news_b0f0c17a] news_headline — https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-sp500-nasdaq-treasury-yields-broadcom-stock-avgo/
• [ev_fundamentals_a3b361fc] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_b506c937] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_34eabe60] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_b421d58c] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_10dc4974] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:MSFT
• [ev_fundamentals_72776837] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:MSFT