Compiled by the machine desk — no human review before publication. Analytics, not advice.

Machine desk record: 47 claims graded, 60% held up.

Daily Tape — 2026-09-04: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT

Tickers: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT Valid from: 2026-09-04T10:10:07.220181+00:00

By the numbers

• metric: Overnight change

• value: MSFT +2.68% to $510.12

• comparison: leads GOOGL +1.59% ($342.48) and AAPL +1.0% ($328.21)

• period: overnight into 2026-09-04

• Microsoft last printed $510.12, up 2.68% overnight, the largest move among AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT on this tape. [ev_quote_6424665c] [ev_quote_e272a161] [ev_quote_79632c37]

• Alphabet last printed $342.48, up 1.59% overnight. [ev_quote_e272a161]

• Apple last printed $328.21, up 1.0% overnight. [ev_quote_79632c37]

• As of 2026-09-01, Alphabet’s Street book stands at 43 buy, 7 hold, and 0 sell. [ev_rec_70511164]

• As of 2026-09-01, Microsoft’s Street book stands at 41 buy, 5 hold, and 0 sell. [ev_rec_07d35612]

• As of 2026-09-01, Apple’s Street book is more mixed at 22 buy, 15 hold, and 3 sell. [ev_rec_5e9e2511]

Thesis

• statement: Standing view stays neutral on AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT: Street books remain net-buy, overnight tape is modestly bid, and all three flash a convergence signal, but Apple's mixed 22/15/3 split, a $303 Rosenblatt target below the market, and a seven-week wait to late-October earnings keep us from leaning long.

• frame: Standing neutral on the mega-cap AI complex — constructive Street, contested multiples.

• why_now: Overnight gains (AAPL +1.0% to $328.21, GOOGL +1.59% to $342.48, MSFT +2.68% to $510.12) arrived without earnings, guidance, or regulatory news; the live debate is fund buying and AI positioning versus valuation pushback, with the next hard checkpoint at the October 27–28 prints.

• As of 2026-09-01, AAPL's Street book is mixed at 22 buy, 15 hold, and 3 sell — a less constructive split than GOOGL or MSFT. [ev_rec_5e9e2511] [ev_rec_70511164] [ev_rec_07d35612]

• As of 2026-09-01, GOOGL's Street book is 43 buy, 7 hold, and 0 sell. [ev_rec_70511164]

• As of 2026-09-01, MSFT's Street book is 41 buy, 5 hold, and 0 sell. [ev_rec_07d35612]

• AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT each currently carry a convergence signal with score 1. [ev_conv_c98bba8e] [ev_conv_a6fa988d] [ev_conv_ae1d8e19]

• The next scheduled earnings prints are 2026-10-27 for MSFT and GOOGL and 2026-10-28 for AAPL. [ev_earn_251ecc5f] [ev_earn_bbaa7f85] [ev_earn_202e26fe]

• Fresh AAPL coverage is split: Investors.com cites top-fund buying and a possible breakout, Simply Wall St argues the stock could be 28% overvalued on AI Mac assumptions, and Rosenblatt's raised $303 target sits below the $328.21 last print. [ev_news_dba7438b] [ev_news_5fdc3c5a] [ev_news_74460239] [ev_quote_79632c37]

• AAPL holds above $310 through 2026-09-14. [ev_quote_79632c37] [ev_conv_c98bba8e] [ev_rec_5e9e2511]

• MSFT holds above $490 through 2026-09-14. [ev_quote_6424665c] [ev_conv_ae1d8e19] [ev_rec_07d35612]

Risks

• risk: AAPL and MSFT multiple compression into the Oct 27–28 earnings cluster after SimplyWall.st flagged AAPL as 28% overvalued and MSFT as only fair on cash flow.

• likelihood (medium): AAPL’s Street book is mixed (22 buy / 15 hold / 3 sell) and a 28% overvaluation note is already in print, but overnight tape is still green and there is no fresh negative catalyst before late October.

• impact (high): A mega-cap de-rating would be portfolio-material: AAPL already sits at $328.21 versus Rosenblatt’s $303 target, and a 28% overvaluation call implies a much larger drawdown if it sticks.

• mitigant: MSFT (41 buy / 0 sell) and GOOGL (43 buy / 0 sell) retain overwhelming Street support; all three names printed higher overnight and the next prints are still about seven weeks out.

• SimplyWall.st published on 2026-09-02 that Apple stock could be 28% overvalued. [ev_news_5fdc3c5a]

• AAPL last printed at $328.21, above Rosenblatt’s raised $303 price target dated 2026-09-01. [ev_quote_79632c37] [ev_news_74460239]

• As of 2026-09-01, AAPL carried 22 buy, 15 hold, and 3 sell ratings, a more mixed book than MSFT (41 buy / 5 hold / 0 sell) or GOOGL (43 buy / 7 hold / 0 sell). [ev_rec_5e9e2511] [ev_rec_07d35612] [ev_rec_70511164]

• MSFT and GOOGL are scheduled to report earnings on 2026-10-27 and AAPL on 2026-10-28. [ev_earn_251ecc5f] [ev_earn_bbaa7f85] [ev_earn_202e26fe]

• SimplyWall.st described Microsoft stock as trading fair on cash flow. [ev_news_85d70d58]

• A late-August headline noted Microsoft shares were up 12% since the last earnings report. [ev_news_cf5f01a6]

• AAPL trades below Rosenblatt’s $303 price target by the 2026-10-28 earnings date. [ev_quote_79632c37] [ev_news_74460239] [ev_earn_202e26fe] [ev_news_5fdc3c5a]

What to watch

• trigger: MSFT/GOOGL earnings Oct 27; AAPL Oct 28

• metric: Azure sales, AI monetization, operating margins

• timeframe: Oct 27-28, 2026

• Microsoft will report earnings on 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_251ecc5f]

• Alphabet will report earnings on 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_bbaa7f85]

• Apple will report earnings on 2026-10-28. [ev_earn_202e26fe]

• Tape commentary is flagging Microsoft quarterly Azure sales as a figure investors are watching. [ev_news_09cab945]

• Alphabet's AI-monetization path is a live coverage focus heading into the October 27 print. [ev_news_c831838b] [ev_earn_bbaa7f85]

By the numbers

• metric: calibrated_p_up_5d

• value: 0.319–0.432

• comparison: MSFT > AAPL ≈ GOOGL

• period: 5-day forward

• MSFT has posted positive EPS surprises in all four most recent quarters (Q3 2025 through Q2 2026), with magnitudes ranging from +0.11 to +0.41, while AAPL and GOOGL have each recorded at least one negative surprise in the same window. [ev_fundamentals_cc92a0bb] [ev_fundamentals_a77beb71] [ev_fundamentals_cb1251e4]

• MSFT's calibrated 5-day up probability (0.432) is 3.5–3.6 percentage points higher than AAPL (0.319) and GOOGL (0.317), reflecting a modestly stronger near-term directional signal. [ev_fundamentals_a99cc08f] [ev_fundamentals_b7eca594] [ev_fundamentals_b50ae84c]

• GOOGL's most recent two quarters (Q1 and Q2 2026) both recorded negative EPS surprises (−0.085 and −0.130), marking a reversal from the prior two quarters' mixed results. [ev_fundamentals_cb1251e4]

• AAPL's calibrated 5-day up probability of 0.319 is below the base rate of 0.690, indicating the model assigns below-market-average odds to a near-term price rise. [ev_fundamentals_b7eca594]

• MSFT will post a positive EPS surprise on its next earnings print. [ev_fundamentals_cc92a0bb]

Sources

• [ev_conv_ae1d8e19] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:MSFT
• [ev_conv_c98bba8e] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:AAPL
• [ev_conv_a6fa988d] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:GOOGL
• [ev_quote_e272a161] market_quote — market data:quote:GOOGL
• [ev_quote_6424665c] market_quote — market data:quote:MSFT
• [ev_quote_79632c37] market_quote — market data:quote:AAPL
• [ev_cov_134feda6] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:71bbcc97-a7c4-476f-8118-097a511abb76
• [ev_cov_008a93d9] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:c242f61f-acaa-43b6-8658-c9e07d615da4
• [ev_cov_4787e450] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:fc23c39c-1d62-499c-9229-cda1be1b5415
• [ev_cov_4e6d5d9c] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4bbaf75c-6654-438c-8970-9bd835dd3036
• [ev_cov_a60aabe4] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:70d914a5-b74d-4ffb-87db-02779805aac8
• [ev_cov_eb84a064] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4933044b-3f2d-4659-ace1-093987748e66
• [ev_cov_9270f5b6] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:96d9775b-6e6d-4bfa-bff5-2cff1d63bd7a
• [ev_cov_4a4e0dac] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0dea4c6e-f3a0-44c0-a99f-0257ecd9ac28
• [ev_cov_887817a7] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aaca6340-5b8f-469c-a705-180b5eaaeed4
• [ev_cov_a1546229] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:f80ac6c0-1bf6-4210-a9c0-3c224bf9bbc3
• [ev_cov_77850a67] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:28205256-eb7f-409e-9967-afeaf145225b
• [ev_cov_b62bcbe9] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9b58ec54-d5b0-4da4-b0e0-bbafa8fd19ae
• [ev_cov_a559c5ea] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:75022657-1f17-41db-8512-887d99a3e7a0
• [ev_cov_e339dd39] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3ecb0fe2-51f3-4472-b3db-aa871b4a2e5b
• [ev_cov_71c433d8] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ab6010fa-1077-4f25-ab7b-61cd5bcfa251
• [ev_cov_1d27c774] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:2fbb9b6f-6d06-482b-a27f-8f656d63ecb2
• [ev_cov_830eb109] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:114fcb90-ced3-4f1c-bd29-59fbc61733d2
• [ev_cov_5b20791a] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ea818bf7-d7b6-4a62-a521-4082f94e08bb
• [ev_cov_116b4030] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3b293610-9791-4798-a878-681cd86c1177
• [ev_cov_ad589206] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7d859949-c025-4d08-9194-c0791a95293a
• [ev_cov_cde5024b] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:194985d4-5698-4529-a8b5-d77eb8962804
• [ev_cov_a6c26822] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0e4f5a74-b6fc-4458-9fdc-a5fc0e61c515
• [ev_cov_433c2a27] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7ff9ef16-ebcb-4ecd-bc6f-c0b90f19c39f
• [ev_cov_9af119e7] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:e9792545-5aa8-41bd-840b-da72e4ea0523
• [ev_cov_adec7147] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aec66cd1-8415-4fcb-bc88-443cd97baf50
• [ev_cov_bfd26c38] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:8da79f89-fc92-47b6-b461-54504b3b9959
• [ev_cov_4bdf9e90] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:da91a3bf-68fe-4a22-869a-494cb6bfdc37
• [ev_cov_c5aa8b34] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:978d2b1a-b826-4fe1-bd52-1afe646661e2
• [ev_cov_873b03b6] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0135497a-8448-4b0a-8c55-47e013c16607
• [ev_cov_dc9078cc] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:cbf8609d-b1fc-416c-adee-60a2e2b9c2b6
• [ev_cov_ebe46a84] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:cc6cb418-2587-4513-96ad-7242b5c8bb85
• [ev_profile_1b0d9c2c] company_profile — market data:profile:MSFT
• [ev_rec_07d35612] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:MSFT
• [ev_profile_910b209a] company_profile — market data:profile:AAPL
• [ev_rec_5e9e2511] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:AAPL
• [ev_profile_09c3ce0e] company_profile — market data:profile:GOOGL
• [ev_rec_70511164] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:GOOGL
• [ev_earn_251ecc5f] earnings_date — market data:earnings:MSFT
• [ev_earn_202e26fe] earnings_date — market data:earnings:AAPL
• [ev_earn_bbaa7f85] earnings_date — market data:earnings:GOOGL
• [ev_news_dba7438b] news_headline — https://www.investors.com/research/ibd-stock-analysis/apple-stock-finds-massive-ai-fueled-demand-breakout-ahead
• [ev_news_5fdc3c5a] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/tech/nasdaq-aapl/apple/news/apple-aapl-stock-could-be-28-overvalued-on-fresh-ai-mac-laun
• [ev_news_74460239] news_headline — https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/rosenblatt-raises-apple-stock-price-target-to-303-on-ceo-transition-93CH-4883904
• [ev_news_30844b85] news_headline — https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/08/31/apple-at-320-heres-who-should-hold-their-shares
• [ev_news_d206ea22] news_headline — https://seekingalpha.com/article/4942837-apple-why-i-am-buying-the-earnings-growth-despite-the-premium-valuation
• [ev_news_f5a54f8b] news_headline — https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/09/01/should-you-buy-apple-before-sept-9-here-s-what-history-says
• [ev_news_83d46ff4] news_headline — https://investingnews.com/top-tech-news
• [ev_news_a28fb755] news_headline — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/01/stocks-making-the-biggest-moves-midday-panw-frvo-cvx-aapl.html
• [ev_news_cf5f01a6] news_headline — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/why-microsoft-msft-12-since-153027787.html
• [ev_news_9e5d0272] news_headline — https://www.chartmill.com/stock/quote/MSFT/news
• [ev_news_09cab945] news_headline — https://www.newsquawk.com/headlines/us-daily-equity-opening-news---msft-to-report-quarterly-azure-sales-avgo-slips-on-outlook-hpe-falls-amid-supply-constraints-vrns-in-take-private-talks-elliott-urges-dtegy-to-reconsider-tmus-merger-dec-to-acquire-birch-resources-for-usd-18bln
• [ev_news_85d70d58] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/software/nasdaq-msft/microsoft/news/microsoft-msft-stock-trades-fair-on-cash-flow-but-cheap-on-e
• [ev_news_f75e41ca] news_headline — https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/01/prediction-microsoft-stock-will-double-on-this-date
• [ev_news_c9e57420] news_headline — https://www.investors.com/research/ibd-stock-of-the-day/microsoft-stock-msft-remains-ai-winner
• [ev_news_104da3a2] news_headline — https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:a03ccd7d8094b:0-software-stocks-etfs-is-the-ai-sell-off-over
• [ev_news_192cb080] news_headline — https://seekingalpha.com/article/4942196-microsoft-why-this-is-the-hyperscaler-pick-in-my-recommended-stock-portfolio
• [ev_news_193a982c] news_headline — https://www.trefis.com/stock/googl/articles/613691/googl-stock-delivers-like-the-leader-priced-like-the-laggard/2026-08-31
• [ev_news_c831838b] news_headline — https://seekingalpha.com/article/4942985-alphabet-ai-pivot-creates-a-new-frontier-for-growth
• [ev_news_a5b99512] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nasdaq-meta/meta-platforms/news/ai-stocks-for-higher-rates-why-meta-oracle-and-alphabet-stan
• [ev_news_cf86eb1f] news_headline — https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/google-could-release-new-flash-ai-model-as-soon-as-wednesday-says-report-googl-stock-gains-after-hours/cZsoy1IRJMH
• [ev_news_1360c9de] news_headline — https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/261866628-google-alphabet-magnificent-seven-ai-cloud-search-valuation-regulation-growth-tradingkey
• [ev_news_cfbca9d8] news_headline — https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:3e66d3787094b:0-snowflake-snow-stock-soars-16-after-q2-earnings-is-it-still-a-buy
• [ev_news_a9bbf03c] news_headline — https://investingnews.com/top-tech-news
• [ev_news_161b3cdb] news_headline — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/02/broadcom-avgo-q3-earnings-report-2026.html
• [ev_fundamentals_a77beb71] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_b7eca594] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_cb1251e4] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_b50ae84c] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_cc92a0bb] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:MSFT
• [ev_fundamentals_a99cc08f] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:MSFT