Compiled by the machine desk — no human review before publication. Analytics, not advice.

Machine desk record: 44 claims graded, 61% held up.

Daily Tape — 2026-09-03: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT

Tickers: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT Valid from: 2026-09-03T10:10:03.979292+00:00

By the numbers

• metric: Overnight change (MSFT / GOOGL / AAPL)

• value: -0.84% / +0.63% / -0.05%

• comparison: mixed tape; MSFT largest mover, GOOGL sole gainer, AAPL flat

• period: overnight into 2026-09-03

• Microsoft last printed $496.82, down 0.84% overnight — the largest move among AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT. [ev_quote_e202a374] [ev_quote_17e4996e] [ev_quote_481e73d7]

• Alphabet last printed $337.12, up 0.63% overnight, the only gainer of the three names. [ev_quote_17e4996e] [ev_quote_e202a374] [ev_quote_481e73d7]

• Apple last printed $324.96, down 0.05% overnight and essentially unchanged. [ev_quote_481e73d7]

• Convergence signals are firing simultaneously on AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT, each with a score of 1. [ev_conv_8b20d7ca] [ev_conv_a07fb0f0] [ev_conv_3a079cdb]

Thesis

• statement: AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT stay on a standing-neutral thesis: mixed sub-1% overnight tape, still-constructive Street books (more two-sided at Apple), and no fundamental re-rating checkpoint until the 27–28 Oct earnings cluster.

• frame: Hold / range-bound mega-cap tech

• why_now: Overnight prints are mixed and thin (AAPL −0.05% at $324.96, GOOGL +0.63% at $337.12, MSFT −0.84% at $496.82), convergence flags sit on all three names, and there is no material news catalyst before late-October earnings.

• Overnight, AAPL last traded at $324.96 (−0.05%), GOOGL at $337.12 (+0.63%), and MSFT at $496.82 (−0.84%) — all sub-1% moves. [ev_quote_481e73d7] [ev_quote_17e4996e] [ev_quote_e202a374]

• AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT each currently carry a convergence signal with score 1. [ev_conv_a07fb0f0] [ev_conv_3a079cdb] [ev_conv_8b20d7ca]

• As of 2026-09-01, AAPL's analyst book is mixed at 22 buy, 15 hold, and 3 sell. [ev_rec_0d85f21b]

• As of 2026-09-01, MSFT's analyst book is 41 buy, 5 hold, and 0 sell. [ev_rec_d084a94a]

• As of 2026-09-01, GOOGL's analyst book is 43 buy, 7 hold, and 0 sell. [ev_rec_0a1d0b3f]

• The next earnings dates are 2026-10-27 for MSFT and GOOGL and 2026-10-28 for AAPL. [ev_earn_90949011] [ev_earn_20e9d37f] [ev_earn_23a3db6e]

• AAPL remains below $340 over the next 10 days, consistent with a no-catalyst, range-bound tape ahead of late-October earnings. [ev_quote_481e73d7] [ev_earn_23a3db6e]

Risks

• risk: Quiet-period re-rating: Apple's CEO handoff into a 'most challenging decade' tape, MSFT multiple compression as Fed guidance fades, and unresolved GOOGL AI-monetization skepticism all sit open until the late-October prints.

• likelihood (medium): The Cook handoff and 'challenging decade' headlines are days old and AAPL's Street mix is the most mixed of the three, but overnight AAPL was essentially unchanged and MSFT/GOOGL remain overwhelmingly Buy-rated with zero sells.

• impact (medium): A 5%+ de-rating into the October prints would matter for positioning in these mega-caps, but none of the named overhangs is a solvency or franchise-break event.

• mitigant: Hard checkpoint is the 2026-10-27/28 earnings cluster; AAPL has also been framed as a hedge as the AI trade wobbles, and MSFT/GOOGL still carry 41 and 43 Buys.

• Yahoo Finance reported 2026-08-31 as Tim Cook's last day as Apple CEO. [ev_news_e9247b2a]

• A 24/7 Wall St. headline on 2026-08-31 described Apple as facing one of its most challenging times in a decade and asked whether it is time to sell. [ev_news_91bb6f02]

• MarketBeat reported on 2026-08-31 that analysts are split on MSFT as Fed guidance fades. [ev_news_c834c6ad]

• As of the 2026-09-01 snapshot, AAPL stood at 22 buy / 15 hold / 3 sell versus MSFT at 41 / 5 / 0 and GOOGL at 43 / 7 / 0. [ev_rec_0d85f21b] [ev_rec_d084a94a] [ev_rec_0a1d0b3f]

• MSFT and GOOGL next report on 2026-10-27 and AAPL on 2026-10-28, leaving a long quiet period for these overhangs. [ev_earn_90949011] [ev_earn_20e9d37f] [ev_earn_23a3db6e]

• AAPL will trade below $310 before its 2026-10-28 earnings as CEO-transition and challenging-environment headlines bite. [ev_news_e9247b2a] [ev_news_91bb6f02] [ev_rec_0d85f21b] [ev_quote_481e73d7]

What to watch

• trigger: MSFT and GOOGL report Oct 27; AAPL reports Oct 28

• metric: EPS and revenue versus consensus

• timeframe: October 27-28, 2026

• The next shared checkpoint across AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT is the late-October earnings cluster on October 27-28, 2026. [ev_earn_90949011] [ev_earn_20e9d37f] [ev_earn_23a3db6e]

• Microsoft is scheduled to report earnings on October 27, 2026, the first quantitative test of the standing-neutral thesis. [ev_earn_90949011]

• Alphabet is scheduled to report earnings on October 27, 2026, the first quantitative test of the standing-neutral thesis. [ev_earn_20e9d37f]

• Apple is scheduled to report earnings on October 28, 2026, the first quantitative test of the standing-neutral thesis. [ev_earn_23a3db6e]

By the numbers

• metric: calibrated_p_up_5d

• value: 0.320–0.617

• comparison: dispersion across mega-cap tech

• period: 5-day forward

• MSFT has delivered positive EPS surprises in all four trailing quarters (Q3 2025 through Q2 2026), with magnitudes ranging from +0.11 to +0.41 per share, indicating consistent upside execution relative to consensus. [ev_fundamentals_0843b57e]

• AAPL's calibrated 5-day up probability of 0.32 is the lowest among the three names, reflecting a base rate skewed toward consolidation or downside over the next week. [ev_fundamentals_be896704]

• GOOGL's recent EPS surprises have turned negative in the last two quarters (Q4 2025 and Q2 2026 misses of -0.13 and -0.09 per share), reversing a strong beat in Q3 2025 (+0.70), suggesting deteriorating earnings momentum. [ev_fundamentals_9a8135e6]

• MSFT will deliver a positive EPS surprise on its next earnings print. [ev_fundamentals_0843b57e]

• AAPL will decline more than 5% over the next 5 trading days. [ev_fundamentals_be896704]

• GOOGL will rise more than 5% over the next 5 trading days. [ev_fundamentals_09f2a94c]

Sources

• [ev_conv_8b20d7ca] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:MSFT
• [ev_conv_a07fb0f0] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:AAPL
• [ev_conv_3a079cdb] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:GOOGL
• [ev_quote_e202a374] market_quote — market data:quote:MSFT
• [ev_quote_17e4996e] market_quote — market data:quote:GOOGL
• [ev_quote_481e73d7] market_quote — market data:quote:AAPL
• [ev_cov_5ca63098] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:71bbcc97-a7c4-476f-8118-097a511abb76
• [ev_cov_31799fb0] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:c242f61f-acaa-43b6-8658-c9e07d615da4
• [ev_cov_2ea05b4c] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:fc23c39c-1d62-499c-9229-cda1be1b5415
• [ev_cov_c85d1d20] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4bbaf75c-6654-438c-8970-9bd835dd3036
• [ev_cov_55b7aca3] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:70d914a5-b74d-4ffb-87db-02779805aac8
• [ev_cov_51a4088e] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4933044b-3f2d-4659-ace1-093987748e66
• [ev_cov_f74e4a8f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:96d9775b-6e6d-4bfa-bff5-2cff1d63bd7a
• [ev_cov_70ec1238] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0dea4c6e-f3a0-44c0-a99f-0257ecd9ac28
• [ev_cov_e159cb29] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aaca6340-5b8f-469c-a705-180b5eaaeed4
• [ev_cov_e93dbcd3] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:28205256-eb7f-409e-9967-afeaf145225b
• [ev_cov_96237d6f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9b58ec54-d5b0-4da4-b0e0-bbafa8fd19ae
• [ev_cov_b7f50937] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:75022657-1f17-41db-8512-887d99a3e7a0
• [ev_cov_e3849ece] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3ecb0fe2-51f3-4472-b3db-aa871b4a2e5b
• [ev_cov_c8392cac] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ab6010fa-1077-4f25-ab7b-61cd5bcfa251
• [ev_cov_62f8a631] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:2fbb9b6f-6d06-482b-a27f-8f656d63ecb2
• [ev_cov_c8cad33f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:114fcb90-ced3-4f1c-bd29-59fbc61733d2
• [ev_cov_d5555a3a] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ea818bf7-d7b6-4a62-a521-4082f94e08bb
• [ev_cov_a8e8f488] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3b293610-9791-4798-a878-681cd86c1177
• [ev_cov_c07ac1ac] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7d859949-c025-4d08-9194-c0791a95293a
• [ev_cov_a2e3311c] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:194985d4-5698-4529-a8b5-d77eb8962804
• [ev_cov_e62ee865] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0e4f5a74-b6fc-4458-9fdc-a5fc0e61c515
• [ev_cov_6e4c4a9a] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7ff9ef16-ebcb-4ecd-bc6f-c0b90f19c39f
• [ev_cov_343ad6b9] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:e9792545-5aa8-41bd-840b-da72e4ea0523
• [ev_cov_b43a019d] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aec66cd1-8415-4fcb-bc88-443cd97baf50
• [ev_cov_4c0b144c] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:8da79f89-fc92-47b6-b461-54504b3b9959
• [ev_cov_37f60506] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:da91a3bf-68fe-4a22-869a-494cb6bfdc37
• [ev_cov_f9b1f145] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:978d2b1a-b826-4fe1-bd52-1afe646661e2
• [ev_cov_2adb83e5] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0135497a-8448-4b0a-8c55-47e013c16607
• [ev_cov_41315a0b] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:cbf8609d-b1fc-416c-adee-60a2e2b9c2b6
• [ev_cov_32f18043] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:cc6cb418-2587-4513-96ad-7242b5c8bb85
• [ev_profile_9eff6c7c] company_profile — market data:profile:MSFT
• [ev_rec_d084a94a] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:MSFT
• [ev_profile_279e5451] company_profile — market data:profile:AAPL
• [ev_rec_0d85f21b] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:AAPL
• [ev_profile_009b072d] company_profile — market data:profile:GOOGL
• [ev_rec_0a1d0b3f] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:GOOGL
• [ev_earn_90949011] earnings_date — market data:earnings:MSFT
• [ev_earn_23a3db6e] earnings_date — market data:earnings:AAPL
• [ev_earn_20e9d37f] earnings_date — market data:earnings:GOOGL
• [ev_news_cfd6f837] news_headline — https://www.gurufocus.com/news/9059780/msft-dcf-analysis-intrinsic-value-527-vs-price-514
• [ev_news_89d53a01] news_headline — https://www.chartmill.com/stock/quote/MSFT/news
• [ev_news_c834c6ad] news_headline — https://www.marketbeat.com/articles/microsofts-split-verdict-tests-investing-without-a-fed-safety-net
• [ev_news_d4d24efc] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/software/nasdaq-msft/microsoft/news/microsoft-msft-stock-trades-fair-on-cash-flow-but-cheap-on-e
• [ev_news_396faae1] news_headline — https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/01/prediction-microsoft-stock-will-double-on-this-date
• [ev_news_f241a137] news_headline — https://seekingalpha.com/article/4942196-microsoft-why-this-is-the-hyperscaler-pick-in-my-recommended-stock-portfolio
• [ev_news_25c7b8d8] news_headline — https://investingnews.com/top-tech-news
• [ev_news_3ba2190e] news_headline — https://www.trefis.com/stock/googl/articles/613953/the-277-billion-that-googl-stock-quietly-paid-its-owners/2026-09-02
• [ev_news_14f4fd5a] news_headline — https://ng.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/marvell-technology-earnings-analysis-questions-answered-and-next-catalysts-93CH-2679272
• [ev_news_533429cd] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nasdaq-googl/alphabet/news/alphabet-googl-courts-hollywood-studios-for-ai-training-righ/amp
• [ev_news_a9807818] news_headline — https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:dd5a28b7c094b:0-s-p-500-q3-earnings-preview-earnings-and-revenue-growth-expected-to-surge
• [ev_news_aa2e906c] news_headline — https://qz.com/is-broadcom-avgo-stock-a-buy-before-its-q3-earnings
• [ev_news_b7e4ffe7] news_headline — https://www.chartmill.com/stock/quote/MSFT/news
• [ev_news_ba188528] news_headline — https://investingnews.com/top-tech-news
• [ev_news_e7708278] news_headline — https://www.webull.com/news/15487487241233408
• [ev_news_c5d0ac69] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/tech/nasdaq-aapl/apple/news/does-apples-new-m6-ai-macs-and-ceo-shift-reshape-the-bull-ca/amp
• [ev_news_7173a65c] news_headline — https://qz.com/apple-stock-hedge-ai-trade-selloff-nasdaq-090226
• [ev_news_e9247b2a] news_headline — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/article/its-tim-cooks-last-day-as-apple-ceo-investors-are-4-trillion-richer-because-of-him-230325985.html
• [ev_news_91bb6f02] news_headline — https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/08/31/apple-is-facing-one-of-its-most-challenging-times-in-a-decade-time-to-sell?tpid=1650034&tv=link&tc=in_content
• [ev_news_8b7a7ccd] news_headline — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/02/apple-shares-are-doing-something-they-havent-done-in-20-years-heres-whats-happening.html
• [ev_news_0056b851] news_headline — https://www.investors.com/research/options/apple-stock-aapl-iphone-tech-options-trade-setup-income-investing-strategy-markets
• [ev_news_e7a67006] news_headline — https://investingnews.com/top-tech-news
• [ev_fundamentals_29c6ed9c] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_be896704] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_9a8135e6] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_09f2a94c] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_0843b57e] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:MSFT
• [ev_fundamentals_ea423fa9] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:MSFT