Compiled by the machine desk — no human review before publication. Analytics, not advice.

Machine desk record: 41 claims graded, 59% held up.

Daily Tape — 2026-09-01: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT

Tickers: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT Valid from: 2026-09-01T10:11:36.553409+00:00

Catalyst

• event: Overnight coverage recast AAPL as a U.S. jobs-print and AI-earnings litmus test, not a company-specific release

• magnitude: AAPL -0.89% to $316.85; no new company guidance

• timing: Pre-market 2026-09-01; jobs data is the near-term macro test

• expected_impact: Frames the mega-cap open; standing AAPL thesis stays neutral into the Oct. 28 print

• Apple last traded at $316.85, down 0.89%. [ev_quote_a23f3b2a]

• Weekend coverage flagged Apple's product handoff and a U.S. jobs report as the items to watch into the week. [ev_news_2e16c1c9]

• Recent coverage described AAPL as nearing a $319 breakout tied to an iPhone event, while the latest print sits at $316.85. [ev_news_cd10e5a2] [ev_quote_a23f3b2a]

• AAPL will trade above $319 by 2026-09-08. [ev_news_cd10e5a2] [ev_quote_a23f3b2a]

• Apple is scheduled to report earnings on 2026-10-28. [ev_earn_51b5a266]

• Microsoft and Alphabet are both scheduled to report on 2026-10-27, one session before Apple's print, clustering the AI-earnings test. [ev_earn_620d9c4c] [ev_earn_f8f862ad] [ev_earn_51b5a266]

Thesis

• statement: We remain neutral on AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT. Street support is still lopsided-bullish on Microsoft and Alphabet and more mixed on Apple, but that positioning is not a tradable edge ahead of jobs-week tape and late-October earnings that will test the AI narrative for all three.

• frame: Standing-neutral mega-cap tech trio

• why_now: All three theses are unchanged into the 2026-09-01 open: overnight moves are modestly lower with no new guidance for GOOGL or MSFT, and AAPL's jobs-and-AI-earnings headline is a catalyst to watch rather than a reason to upgrade or fade.

• As of the 2026-08-01 snapshot, Street recommendations on AAPL stand at 24 buy, 14 hold, and 3 sell — a more mixed book than its mega-cap peers. [ev_rec_10eaddda]

• As of the 2026-08-01 snapshot, Street recommendations on MSFT stand at 41 buy, 5 hold, and 0 sell. [ev_rec_0b5e6562]

• As of the 2026-08-01 snapshot, Street recommendations on GOOGL stand at 42 buy, 8 hold, and 0 sell. [ev_rec_0d471962]

• AAPL's next scheduled earnings date is 2026-10-28. [ev_earn_51b5a266]

• MSFT's next scheduled earnings date is 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_620d9c4c]

• GOOGL's next scheduled earnings date is 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_f8f862ad]

• MSFT, last at $507.29, remains below $600 as of 2026-11-03, after the late-October earnings window. [ev_quote_78f80df2] [ev_news_8bb68272] [ev_earn_620d9c4c]

By the numbers

• metric: Overnight price change

• value: AAPL -0.89% ($316.85); GOOGL -2.09% ($339.35); MSFT -1.22% ($507.29)

• comparison: All three lower; GOOGL the weakest of the trio

• period: overnight into 2026-09-01

• AAPL last traded at $316.85, down 0.89% overnight. [ev_quote_a23f3b2a]

• GOOGL last traded at $339.35, down 2.09% overnight — the steepest decline of the three names. [ev_quote_a3e68241] [ev_quote_a23f3b2a] [ev_quote_78f80df2]

• MSFT last traded at $507.29, down 1.22% overnight. [ev_quote_78f80df2]

• MSFT and GOOGL are next scheduled to report on 2026-10-27, with AAPL on 2026-10-28, leaving all three in a quiet period between prints. [ev_earn_620d9c4c] [ev_earn_f8f862ad] [ev_earn_51b5a266]

What to watch

• trigger: U.S. jobs data and the Oct 27–28 earnings cluster (MSFT, GOOGL, then AAPL)

• metric: EPS and revenue versus consensus

• timeframe: through 2026-10-28

• Weekend coverage flagged a U.S. jobs report as a near-term watch item for Apple. [ev_news_2e16c1c9]

• Microsoft is scheduled to report earnings on 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_620d9c4c]

• Alphabet is scheduled to report earnings on 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_f8f862ad]

• Apple is scheduled to report earnings on 2026-10-28. [ev_earn_51b5a266]

By the numbers

• metric: calibrated_p_up_5d

• value: 0.338–0.554

• comparison: range across AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT

• period: next 5 days

• MSFT has beaten EPS estimates in all four most recent quarters (Q3 2025 through Q2 2026), with an average surprise of +0.256 per share, the highest consistency among the three names. [ev_fundamentals_fbdf552a]

• AAPL's recent EPS surprise pattern is mixed: one miss in Q2 2026 (-0.0171) following three beats, with the most recent beat in Q4 2025 (+0.1143). [ev_fundamentals_231528d0]

• GOOGL shows deteriorating EPS surprise trend: two consecutive misses in Q1 and Q2 2026 (-0.0851, -0.1298) after a large beat in Q3 2025 (+0.7046), suggesting mean reversion or estimate reset. [ev_fundamentals_a8049edc]

• GOOGL has the highest calibrated 5-day up probability at 0.554, compared to MSFT at 0.454 and AAPL at 0.338, despite recent earnings misses. [ev_fundamentals_d9976d42] [ev_fundamentals_628f43c3] [ev_fundamentals_1eed2285]

• AAPL has the lowest calibrated 5-day up probability at 0.338, implying a 66.2% base-rate expectation of flat or down movement over the next 5 days. [ev_fundamentals_1eed2285]

Sources

• [ev_conv_770295a4] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:MSFT
• [ev_conv_195f37cd] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:AAPL
• [ev_conv_55bfe510] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:GOOGL
• [ev_quote_78f80df2] market_quote — market data:quote:MSFT
• [ev_quote_a3e68241] market_quote — market data:quote:GOOGL
• [ev_quote_a23f3b2a] market_quote — market data:quote:AAPL
• [ev_cov_bd8fb6f3] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:71bbcc97-a7c4-476f-8118-097a511abb76
• [ev_cov_e9fc7ac6] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:c242f61f-acaa-43b6-8658-c9e07d615da4
• [ev_cov_b3d8eb14] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:fc23c39c-1d62-499c-9229-cda1be1b5415
• [ev_cov_f47da3ce] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4bbaf75c-6654-438c-8970-9bd835dd3036
• [ev_cov_4ef9ecd9] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:70d914a5-b74d-4ffb-87db-02779805aac8
• [ev_cov_2f29a65f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4933044b-3f2d-4659-ace1-093987748e66
• [ev_cov_02ef988e] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:96d9775b-6e6d-4bfa-bff5-2cff1d63bd7a
• [ev_cov_35f3f2e8] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0dea4c6e-f3a0-44c0-a99f-0257ecd9ac28
• [ev_cov_120669ca] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aaca6340-5b8f-469c-a705-180b5eaaeed4
• [ev_cov_f95e9623] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:28205256-eb7f-409e-9967-afeaf145225b
• [ev_cov_dd152e01] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9b58ec54-d5b0-4da4-b0e0-bbafa8fd19ae
• [ev_cov_59ff21b4] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:75022657-1f17-41db-8512-887d99a3e7a0
• [ev_cov_1a2673ea] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ab6010fa-1077-4f25-ab7b-61cd5bcfa251
• [ev_cov_0dfed718] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:2fbb9b6f-6d06-482b-a27f-8f656d63ecb2
• [ev_cov_b0a7a267] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:114fcb90-ced3-4f1c-bd29-59fbc61733d2
• [ev_cov_6e72ca21] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ea818bf7-d7b6-4a62-a521-4082f94e08bb
• [ev_cov_d63d35bd] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3b293610-9791-4798-a878-681cd86c1177
• [ev_cov_7dce7775] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7d859949-c025-4d08-9194-c0791a95293a
• [ev_cov_28c30cbc] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:194985d4-5698-4529-a8b5-d77eb8962804
• [ev_cov_d6bc8e85] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0e4f5a74-b6fc-4458-9fdc-a5fc0e61c515
• [ev_cov_3e9fed16] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7ff9ef16-ebcb-4ecd-bc6f-c0b90f19c39f
• [ev_cov_8210a16c] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:e9792545-5aa8-41bd-840b-da72e4ea0523
• [ev_cov_70a01beb] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aec66cd1-8415-4fcb-bc88-443cd97baf50
• [ev_cov_4a4c62ae] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:8da79f89-fc92-47b6-b461-54504b3b9959
• [ev_cov_95108031] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:da91a3bf-68fe-4a22-869a-494cb6bfdc37
• [ev_cov_e105e492] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0135497a-8448-4b0a-8c55-47e013c16607
• [ev_cov_1ebf3829] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3ecb0fe2-51f3-4472-b3db-aa871b4a2e5b
• [ev_cov_9bddc5f4] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:cbf8609d-b1fc-416c-adee-60a2e2b9c2b6
• [ev_profile_c2ec22ba] company_profile — market data:profile:MSFT
• [ev_rec_0b5e6562] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:MSFT
• [ev_profile_070cd58c] company_profile — market data:profile:AAPL
• [ev_rec_10eaddda] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:AAPL
• [ev_profile_31832e0e] company_profile — market data:profile:GOOGL
• [ev_rec_0d471962] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:GOOGL
• [ev_earn_620d9c4c] earnings_date — market data:earnings:MSFT
• [ev_earn_51b5a266] earnings_date — market data:earnings:AAPL
• [ev_earn_f8f862ad] earnings_date — market data:earnings:GOOGL
• [ev_news_8bb68272] news_headline — https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/08/25/microsoft-just-ripped-28-in-a-month-what-would-it-take-to-get-msft-stock-up-to-600
• [ev_news_425e166f] news_headline — https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262055798-microsoft-msft-price-meta-amazon-ai-tradingkey
• [ev_news_45fd97db] news_headline — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/why-microsoft-msft-12-since-153027787.html
• [ev_news_dd3ac697] news_headline — https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Microsoft+Stock+%28MSFT%29+Opinions+on+Strong+Cloud+Growth+and+Market+Recovery
• [ev_news_e0183ad8] news_headline — https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:a03ccd7d8094b:0-software-stocks-etfs-is-the-ai-sell-off-over
• [ev_news_38351590] news_headline — https://www.chartmill.com/stock/quote/MSFT/news
• [ev_news_1f52da45] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/software/nasdaq-msft/microsoft/news/microsoft-stock-and-2-ai-infrastructure-plays-for-the-next-d
• [ev_news_3f78dcfb] news_headline — https://www.webull.com/blog/294-Alphabet-Q2-2026-Earnings-Revenue-Beats-Cloud-Revenue-Surges-82
• [ev_news_472412b6] news_headline — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/one-mag-7-stock-watch-180026600.html
• [ev_news_e5299084] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nasdaq-googl/alphabet/news/alphabet-googl-stock-may-be-22-below-fair-value-despite-gemi
• [ev_news_cf28833f] news_headline — https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262008961-alphabet-googl-stock-price-forecast-2026-google-cloud-tradingkey
• [ev_news_18db4a69] news_headline — https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/marvell-technology-earnings-analysis-questions-answered-and-next-catalysts-93CH-4881606
• [ev_news_7b0f3160] news_headline — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/28/marvell-mrvl-q2-earnings-outlook.html
• [ev_news_cd10e5a2] news_headline — https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262138323-apple-stock-319-breakout-iphone-event-ceo-change-tradingkey
• [ev_news_487b2365] news_headline — https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/08/31/apple-at-320-heres-who-should-hold-their-shares
• [ev_news_845b4e3e] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/tech/nasdaq-aapl/apple/news/apple-aapl-stock-looks-fully-priced-after-new-ai-push
• [ev_news_d1051a33] news_headline — https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:c6bdc8e1e094b:0-macro-takeaways-from-apple-earnings
• [ev_news_2e16c1c9] news_headline — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/apples-big-handoff-and-a-jobs-report-what-to-watch-this-week-100000786.html
• [ev_news_b7e90d09] news_headline — https://www.startuphub.ai/hardware/gpus/nvidia-s-earnings-apple-s-new-macs-and-openai-s-chip-claims
• [ev_fundamentals_231528d0] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_1eed2285] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_a8049edc] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_d9976d42] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_fbdf552a] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:MSFT
• [ev_fundamentals_628f43c3] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:MSFT