Compiled by the machine desk — no human review before publication. Analytics, not advice.

Machine desk record: 33 claims graded, 61% held up.

Daily Tape — 2026-08-28: NVDA, AAPL, GOOGL

Tickers: NVDA, AAPL, GOOGL Valid from: 2026-08-28T10:12:43.025196+00:00

Catalyst

• event: Nvidia Q2 print doubled revenue and put next-year guidance on the tape — the only material 24h catalyst

• magnitude: NVDA +8.74% to $227.98

• timing: Print after the close 2026-08-26; reaction still driving the 2026-08-28 pre-market tape

• expected_impact: Reframes the AI demand-ceiling debate and already reversed the pre-print sell-the-news setup

• NVDA last traded at $227.98, up 8.74%. [ev_quote_89c0a039]

• CNN's 2026-08-26 post-print coverage said Nvidia doubled its revenue but still had not impressed investors. [ev_news_225ef84f]

• The +8.74% move in NVDA runs counter to the 2026-08-26 pre-print argument that the stock would almost certainly be cheaper after Wednesday's earnings. [ev_news_e75b0381] [ev_quote_89c0a039]

• NVDA holds above $210 as the post-print gap is digested. [ev_quote_89c0a039] [ev_news_225ef84f]

Thesis

• statement: NVDA is a hold: next-year guidance reopened the AI-demand ceiling debate, but an 8.7% overnight jump after a mixed reception to doubled revenue does not justify chasing a still-crowded Street setup; duration gets tested on November 17.

• frame: Neutral / do-not-chase — treat the guide as a demand-ceiling reset, not a multiple reset.

• why_now: The print and next-year guide just hit; NVDA is +8.74% overnight and the standing view must be restated so the pop is not over-read as a thesis change.

• NVDA last traded at $227.98, up 8.74%. [ev_quote_89c0a039]

• NVDA's analyst book as of 2026-08-01 stood at 41 buy, 3 hold, and 1 sell ratings. [ev_rec_bc54eee5]

• Contemporaneous coverage of the latest print noted that Nvidia doubled revenue and still failed to impress investors. [ev_news_225ef84f]

• NVDA's next scheduled earnings date is 2026-11-17. [ev_earn_e9d6aa8e]

• NVDA holds above $210 through 2026-09-11 as the post-guide move is digested rather than fully reversed. [ev_quote_89c0a039]

By the numbers

• metric: Overnight price change

• value: +8.74% to $227.98

• comparison: vs AAPL +0.36% and GOOGL -0.39% on the same tape

• period: overnight into 2026-08-28

• NVIDIA last traded at $227.98, up 8.74%. [ev_quote_89c0a039]

• NVIDIA's +8.74% move dwarfed Apple's +0.36% and Alphabet's -0.39% on the same session. [ev_quote_89c0a039] [ev_quote_31f724c4] [ev_quote_86297504]

Thesis

• statement: Apple is a hold: installed-base and services cash flows are not in dispute, but a mixed 24-buy/14-hold/3-sell Street book and an unresolved fully-valued debate leave no edge versus sitting tight into the October 28 print.

• frame: Neutral (hold). Standing view, unchanged; no overnight catalyst.

• why_now: AAPL is little changed at $314.58 (+0.36%) with no material 24h finding. Restating the hold keeps the brief consistent and signals that a quiet tape is not a view change.

• AAPL last traded at $314.58, up 0.36%. [ev_quote_31f724c4]

• As of the 2026-08-01 snapshot, AAPL's Street book was 24 buy, 14 hold, and 3 sell ratings. [ev_rec_f6c9b247]

• Apple is scheduled to report earnings on 2026-10-28. [ev_earn_dd16b6fa]

• Recent coverage has questioned whether AAPL is fully valued even as Apple opened a Houston manufacturing center. [ev_news_e5d87ab8]

• AAPL remains above $300 through mid-September, consistent with a catalyst-light tape. [ev_quote_31f724c4]

Thesis

• statement: Hold Alphabet near $341: advertising cash-flow durability still offsets unresolved AI-search disruption, so risk/reward stays balanced into the October 27 print.

• frame: standing-neutral

• why_now: Overnight tape is quiet (GOOGL -0.39%) with no company-specific catalyst; nothing in the last 24h upgrades or downgrades the view.

• GOOGL last traded at $340.65, down 0.39% overnight, with no material company-specific move. [ev_quote_86297504]

• As of 2026-08-01, Street ratings on GOOGL stand at 42 Buy, 8 Hold, and 0 Sell. [ev_rec_eed9cb61]

• Alphabet's next scheduled earnings date is 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_c8d94c05]

• The standing open question on Alphabet remains whether advertising dominance can survive the search disruption AI created. [ev_cov_b6aa6b39]

• GOOGL will remain above $325 through mid-September, consistent with a quiet, fairly valued mega-cap tape and no overnight catalyst. [ev_quote_86297504] [ev_rec_eed9cb61]

What to watch

• trigger: Upcoming earnings prints: GOOGL Oct 27, AAPL Oct 28, NVDA Nov 17

• metric: EPS versus consensus

• timeframe: 2026-10-27 to 2026-11-17

• The next scheduled earnings dates on this tape are GOOGL on 2026-10-27, AAPL on 2026-10-28, and NVDA on 2026-11-17. [ev_earn_c8d94c05] [ev_earn_dd16b6fa] [ev_earn_e9d6aa8e]

• GOOGL will beat consensus EPS at its scheduled 2026-10-27 earnings report. [ev_earn_c8d94c05] [ev_rec_eed9cb61]

• AAPL will beat consensus EPS at its scheduled 2026-10-28 earnings report. [ev_earn_dd16b6fa] [ev_rec_f6c9b247]

• NVDA will beat consensus EPS at its scheduled 2026-11-17 earnings report. [ev_earn_e9d6aa8e] [ev_rec_bc54eee5]

By the numbers

• metric: calibrated_p_up_5d

• value: 0.186–0.339

• comparison: base_rate 0.504–0.646

• period: 5-day forward

• NVDA has posted consistent positive EPS surprises over the past four quarters (0.0254 to 0.0816), with the most recent surprise at +3.8% above consensus. [ev_fundamentals_d62e07f2]

• NVDA's calibrated 5-day up probability (0.186) is substantially below its historical base rate (0.540), suggesting mean reversion or current technical headwinds. [ev_fundamentals_413de008]

• AAPL shows mixed recent EPS surprises: a miss in Q2 2026 (−0.9%) following a large beat in Q4 2025 (+4.2%), indicating inconsistent execution relative to consensus. [ev_fundamentals_a6a9eb22]

• GOOGL has deteriorated from a +29.4% EPS surprise in Q3 2025 to consecutive misses in Q1 and Q2 2026 (−3.2% and −4.4%), suggesting earnings momentum has reversed. [ev_fundamentals_8a6595d5]

• GOOGL's calibrated 5-day up probability (0.339) exceeds its historical base rate (0.504), a rare inversion among the three names, implying current positioning or technicals favor upside. [ev_fundamentals_9745f920]

Sources

• [ev_conv_1e51f294] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:NVDA
• [ev_conv_07dfd742] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:AAPL
• [ev_conv_9fee70a1] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:GOOGL
• [ev_cov_bdf907e2] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:2fbb9b6f-6d06-482b-a27f-8f656d63ecb2
• [ev_cov_cfd8c452] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:71bbcc97-a7c4-476f-8118-097a511abb76
• [ev_cov_97e977a0] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:1e243f18-63ac-49de-8ce3-a71f003b1727
• [ev_cov_71d95e09] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:da91a3bf-68fe-4a22-869a-494cb6bfdc37
• [ev_cov_210ff710] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:28205256-eb7f-409e-9967-afeaf145225b
• [ev_cov_51f3783e] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ea818bf7-d7b6-4a62-a521-4082f94e08bb
• [ev_cov_13d1e606] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:6fd4a0b9-e956-4475-87bf-00eb202de306
• [ev_cov_bc4aad2a] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:70d914a5-b74d-4ffb-87db-02779805aac8
• [ev_cov_58f197ba] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:114fcb90-ced3-4f1c-bd29-59fbc61733d2
• [ev_cov_1358ae47] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:cbf8609d-b1fc-416c-adee-60a2e2b9c2b6
• [ev_cov_726d0888] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0dea4c6e-f3a0-44c0-a99f-0257ecd9ac28
• [ev_cov_21d8c9e3] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:8da79f89-fc92-47b6-b461-54504b3b9959
• [ev_cov_dff200c1] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:96d9775b-6e6d-4bfa-bff5-2cff1d63bd7a
• [ev_cov_76755b70] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ab6010fa-1077-4f25-ab7b-61cd5bcfa251
• [ev_cov_35281e4f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aec66cd1-8415-4fcb-bc88-443cd97baf50
• [ev_cov_ec677304] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aaca6340-5b8f-469c-a705-180b5eaaeed4
• [ev_cov_a6b159d7] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4933044b-3f2d-4659-ace1-093987748e66
• [ev_cov_b5de4710] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:e9792545-5aa8-41bd-840b-da72e4ea0523
• [ev_cov_6ed43483] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7ff9ef16-ebcb-4ecd-bc6f-c0b90f19c39f
• [ev_cov_cfb68241] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0e4f5a74-b6fc-4458-9fdc-a5fc0e61c515
• [ev_cov_a2bc3b5d] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:194985d4-5698-4529-a8b5-d77eb8962804
• [ev_cov_36c0f611] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7d859949-c025-4d08-9194-c0791a95293a
• [ev_cov_6f34d13a] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3b293610-9791-4798-a878-681cd86c1177
• [ev_cov_75e71b52] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4bbaf75c-6654-438c-8970-9bd835dd3036
• [ev_cov_2795e3b0] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:123d5a24-c369-49ac-a32c-e27dc1ce21f9
• [ev_cov_b6aa6b39] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:75022657-1f17-41db-8512-887d99a3e7a0
• [ev_cov_4bcbf1a3] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9b58ec54-d5b0-4da4-b0e0-bbafa8fd19ae
• [ev_cov_4aa7e797] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:fc23c39c-1d62-499c-9229-cda1be1b5415
• [ev_cov_a62471cd] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:c242f61f-acaa-43b6-8658-c9e07d615da4
• [ev_cov_a0c29484] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3b996b91-f6b5-498a-8a87-9a6bc504bb2a
• [ev_quote_89c0a039] market_quote — market data:quote:NVDA
• [ev_quote_86297504] market_quote — market data:quote:GOOGL
• [ev_quote_31f724c4] market_quote — market data:quote:AAPL
• [ev_profile_543465ba] company_profile — market data:profile:NVDA
• [ev_rec_bc54eee5] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:NVDA
• [ev_profile_f4633c60] company_profile — market data:profile:AAPL
• [ev_rec_f6c9b247] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:AAPL
• [ev_profile_a268eaec] company_profile — market data:profile:GOOGL
• [ev_rec_eed9cb61] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:GOOGL
• [ev_earn_e9d6aa8e] earnings_date — market data:earnings:NVDA
• [ev_earn_dd16b6fa] earnings_date — market data:earnings:AAPL
• [ev_earn_c8d94c05] earnings_date — market data:earnings:GOOGL
• [ev_news_99ad23e0] news_headline — https://seekingalpha.com/article/4939394-nvidia-stock-may-plunge-after-earnings-even-if-it-beats
• [ev_news_42e23924] news_headline — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/article/this-nvidia-earnings-fact-will-frustrate-you-103234712.html
• [ev_news_b20f1fff] news_headline — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/article/nvidias-q2-earnings-to-test-resurgent-ai-trade-112502189.html
• [ev_news_cfafa04f] news_headline — https://seekingalpha.com/news/4635856-earnings-week-ahead-nvda-mrvl-zm-xpev-and-more
• [ev_news_5a13d12b] news_headline — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/article/nvidia-earnings-face-a-frustrating-reality-103234712.html
• [ev_news_e75b0381] news_headline — https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/25/whatever-happens-on-wednesday-nvidia-stock-will-al/
• [ev_news_b7f939d8] news_headline — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/whatever-happens-wednesday-nvidia-stock-033500837.html
• [ev_news_225ef84f] news_headline — https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/26/tech/nvidia-earnings
• [ev_news_e5d87ab8] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/tech/nasdaq-aapl/apple/news/apple-aapl-opens-houston-manufacturing-center-is-the-stock-f
• [ev_news_f6591f32] news_headline — https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/filing-b-metzler-seel-sohn-co-ag-sells-31693-shares-of-taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company-ltd-tsm-2026-08-21/
• [ev_news_a2fe929a] news_headline — https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/list-top-gold-stocks-to-watch-now-august-25th-2026-08-25/
• [ev_news_69121a0f] news_headline — https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/24/why-micron-stock-dropped-this-morning/
• [ev_news_1cc58207] news_headline — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/27/cramers-lightning-round-apple-is-still-a-good-buy.html
• [ev_news_0870cc8a] news_headline — https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/modine-manufacturing-company-nysemod-given-consensus-rating-of-moderate-buy-by-brokerages-2026-08-24/
• [ev_news_f3e8ba48] news_headline — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/25/wednesdays-big-stock-stories-whats-likely-to-move-the-market.html
• [ev_news_38094e7c] news_headline — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/23/here-are-the-2-big-things-were-watching-in-the-stock-market-this-week.html
• [ev_news_f8a577f5] news_headline — https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/filing-panoramic-capital-llc-purchases-new-stake-in-modine-manufacturing-company-mod-2026-08-27/
• [ev_news_3e00ab1d] news_headline — https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/scotiabank-issues-negative-outlook-for-hecla-mining-earnings-2026-08-21/
• [ev_news_3c12351c] news_headline — https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/price-harmony-gold-mining-nyse-hmy-shares-gap-down-after-earnings-miss-2026-08-27/
• [ev_news_f2636005] news_headline — https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/list-top-gold-stocks-to-watch-now-august-25th-2026-08-25/
• [ev_news_0ccfa501] news_headline — https://www.barrons.com/articles/marvell-earnings-stock-price-07daa284
• [ev_news_e3873f53] news_headline — https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/harmony-gold-mining-nysehmy-stock-price-up-69-still-a-buy-2026-08-21/
• [ev_news_e934b15d] news_headline — https://www.cnn.com/markets/stocks/TSM
• [ev_news_c3a39283] news_headline — https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/modine-manufacturing-company-nysemod-given-consensus-rating-of-moderate-buy-by-brokerages-2026-08-24/
• [ev_fundamentals_d62e07f2] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:NVDA
• [ev_fundamentals_413de008] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:NVDA
• [ev_fundamentals_a6a9eb22] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_b89186f6] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_8a6595d5] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_9745f920] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:GOOGL