Compiled by the machine desk — no human review before publication. Analytics, not advice.

Machine desk record: 27 claims graded, 63% held up.

Daily Tape — 2026-08-25: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT

Tickers: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT Valid from: 2026-08-25T10:07:51.525532+00:00

By the numbers

• metric: Overnight session change

• value: GOOGL +0.94% to $348.06; MSFT +0.84% to $487.31; AAPL +0.32% to $310.34

• comparison: all three green; Street still 41 buys (MSFT) and 42 buys (GOOGL) vs Apple's more mixed 24 buys / 14 holds / 3 sells

• period: 2026-08-25 pre-market

• GOOGL last traded at $348.06, up 0.94%. [ev_quote_23f6f494]

• MSFT last traded at $487.31, up 0.84%. [ev_quote_f085a637]

• AAPL last traded at $310.34, up 0.32%. [ev_quote_bd511f63]

• As of 2026-08-01, Microsoft carried 41 analyst buy ratings, 5 holds, and 0 sells. [ev_rec_d0e63ac6]

• As of 2026-08-01, Alphabet carried 42 analyst buy ratings, 8 holds, and 0 sells. [ev_rec_f3bf5ad3]

• As of 2026-08-01, Apple's Street split was more mixed at 24 buys, 14 holds, and 3 sells. [ev_rec_0ade16aa]

• AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT each carry a convergence-signal score of 1. [ev_conv_2d28ab3c] [ev_conv_a43d9250] [ev_conv_b95334a0]

Thesis

• statement: Standing-neutral on AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT: Street books remain a net bid — especially GOOGL (42-8-0) and MSFT (41-5-0), with AAPL more mixed at 24-14-3 — technicals are aligned at a convergence score of 1 on all three, and AI-infrastructure spend is the structural tailwind. Nothing overnight re-rates that posture; the next real inflection is the late-October earnings cluster.

• frame: Quiet-period consensus hold underpinned by AI-infrastructure spend, not a fresh catalyst.

• why_now: Overnight confirmed alignment rather than a break: modest green prints (AAPL +0.32% to $310.34, GOOGL +0.94% to $348.06, MSFT +0.84% to $487.31) and identical convergence scores of 1, with no new fundamental catalyst before the October 27–28 earnings window.

• As of the 2026-08-01 snapshot, Microsoft's Street book is 41 buy, 5 hold, and 0 sell. [ev_rec_d0e63ac6]

• As of the 2026-08-01 snapshot, Alphabet's Street book is 42 buy, 8 hold, and 0 sell. [ev_rec_f3bf5ad3]

• As of the 2026-08-01 snapshot, Apple's Street book is more mixed at 24 buy, 14 hold, and 3 sell. [ev_rec_0ade16aa]

• AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT each currently carry a convergence-signal score of 1. [ev_conv_2d28ab3c] [ev_conv_a43d9250] [ev_conv_b95334a0]

• The next scheduled fundamental prints cluster on 2026-10-27 for MSFT and GOOGL and 2026-10-28 for AAPL. [ev_earn_dcc3a2be] [ev_earn_d36ab5fd] [ev_earn_e55c9006]

• Prior house coverage still frames the structural bid under this tape as the AI-infrastructure build-out and post-hype Mag7 divergence, which underpins the standing-neutral posture rather than a fresh single-name catalyst. [ev_cov_96a44654] [ev_cov_8db53cbd] [ev_cov_51fb88ad]

What to watch

• trigger: Back-to-back earnings: MSFT and GOOGL on Oct 27, AAPL on Oct 28

• metric: Azure growth vs. the 40% run-rate; Marvell–Google deal confirmation

• timeframe: 2026-10-27 to 2026-10-28

• Microsoft, Alphabet, and Apple are scheduled to report within 24 hours of each other, with MSFT and GOOGL on 2026-10-27 and AAPL on 2026-10-28. [ev_earn_dcc3a2be] [ev_earn_d36ab5fd] [ev_earn_e55c9006]

• Microsoft will beat consensus EPS when it reports on 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_dcc3a2be] [ev_rec_d0e63ac6] [ev_news_42633397]

• Alphabet will beat consensus EPS when it reports on 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_d36ab5fd] [ev_rec_f3bf5ad3] [ev_news_fe49c055]

• Apple will beat consensus EPS when it reports on 2026-10-28. [ev_earn_e55c9006] [ev_rec_0ade16aa]

• Pre-print commentary is treating Azure growth holding at 40% as the MSFT figure to confirm at the Oct 27 report. [ev_news_42633397] [ev_earn_dcc3a2be]

• A 2026-08-24 Barron's report frames a $120 billion Marvell–Google deal as a material development to track into Alphabet's Oct 27 earnings. [ev_news_cd6f8bc3] [ev_earn_d36ab5fd]

By the numbers

• metric: calibrated_p_up_5d

• value: 0.39–0.48

• comparison: across AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT

• period: 5-day forward

• MSFT has the highest calibrated 5-day up probability (0.482) among the three names, reflecting consistent recent EPS beats (4 consecutive quarters above estimate, mean surprise +0.256). [ev_fundamentals_c66edfa0] [ev_fundamentals_a23e9ef6]

• AAPL has the lowest calibrated 5-day up probability (0.393) among the three names, with recent EPS performance mixed: one miss (Q2 2026, -0.0171) and three beats, mean surprise +0.0403. [ev_fundamentals_059944f4] [ev_fundamentals_bfb5fb0c]

• GOOGL shows the most volatile recent EPS surprise pattern (range: -0.1298 to +0.7046), with two consecutive misses in 2026 (Q1, Q2) offsetting a large beat in Q3 2025; calibrated 5-day up probability is 0.378, lowest after AAPL. [ev_fundamentals_55b583b1] [ev_fundamentals_6a6d3db6]

Sources

• [ev_conv_b95334a0] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:MSFT
• [ev_conv_2d28ab3c] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:AAPL
• [ev_conv_a43d9250] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:GOOGL
• [ev_cov_231c7a2c] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:71bbcc97-a7c4-476f-8118-097a511abb76
• [ev_cov_96a44654] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:c242f61f-acaa-43b6-8658-c9e07d615da4
• [ev_cov_8db53cbd] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:fc23c39c-1d62-499c-9229-cda1be1b5415
• [ev_cov_a8daba2b] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4bbaf75c-6654-438c-8970-9bd835dd3036
• [ev_cov_ba9701ae] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:cbf8609d-b1fc-416c-adee-60a2e2b9c2b6
• [ev_cov_a7ea59ce] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:70d914a5-b74d-4ffb-87db-02779805aac8
• [ev_cov_af6b53eb] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4933044b-3f2d-4659-ace1-093987748e66
• [ev_cov_7f74fe1b] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:96d9775b-6e6d-4bfa-bff5-2cff1d63bd7a
• [ev_cov_e85079a1] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0dea4c6e-f3a0-44c0-a99f-0257ecd9ac28
• [ev_cov_e3502382] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aaca6340-5b8f-469c-a705-180b5eaaeed4
• [ev_cov_f634fd88] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:28205256-eb7f-409e-9967-afeaf145225b
• [ev_cov_51fb88ad] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9b58ec54-d5b0-4da4-b0e0-bbafa8fd19ae
• [ev_cov_9390c209] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:75022657-1f17-41db-8512-887d99a3e7a0
• [ev_cov_ba6d8870] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ab6010fa-1077-4f25-ab7b-61cd5bcfa251
• [ev_cov_6ab29006] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:114fcb90-ced3-4f1c-bd29-59fbc61733d2
• [ev_cov_35b370d0] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ea818bf7-d7b6-4a62-a521-4082f94e08bb
• [ev_cov_550fa90a] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3b293610-9791-4798-a878-681cd86c1177
• [ev_cov_2dddbd08] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7d859949-c025-4d08-9194-c0791a95293a
• [ev_cov_1f65a781] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:194985d4-5698-4529-a8b5-d77eb8962804
• [ev_cov_c9810868] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0e4f5a74-b6fc-4458-9fdc-a5fc0e61c515
• [ev_cov_fdabe6cd] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7ff9ef16-ebcb-4ecd-bc6f-c0b90f19c39f
• [ev_cov_83b03b32] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:e9792545-5aa8-41bd-840b-da72e4ea0523
• [ev_cov_7c269117] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aec66cd1-8415-4fcb-bc88-443cd97baf50
• [ev_cov_72c6ba3d] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:8da79f89-fc92-47b6-b461-54504b3b9959
• [ev_cov_63c3936f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:da91a3bf-68fe-4a22-869a-494cb6bfdc37
• [ev_quote_f085a637] market_quote — market data:quote:MSFT
• [ev_quote_23f6f494] market_quote — market data:quote:GOOGL
• [ev_quote_bd511f63] market_quote — market data:quote:AAPL
• [ev_profile_7055db44] company_profile — market data:profile:AAPL
• [ev_rec_0ade16aa] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:AAPL
• [ev_profile_6775cb8b] company_profile — market data:profile:GOOGL
• [ev_rec_f3bf5ad3] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:GOOGL
• [ev_profile_057e93b7] company_profile — market data:profile:MSFT
• [ev_rec_d0e63ac6] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:MSFT
• [ev_earn_e55c9006] earnings_date — market data:earnings:AAPL
• [ev_earn_dcc3a2be] earnings_date — market data:earnings:MSFT
• [ev_earn_d36ab5fd] earnings_date — market data:earnings:GOOGL
• [ev_news_487b5f43] news_headline — https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/aapl
• [ev_news_ef0ae378] news_headline — https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/26/08/61331763/whats-going-on-with-apple-stock-thursday-2
• [ev_news_a4248913] news_headline — https://intellectia.ai/news/stock/comparative-analysis-of-apple-and-adobe-earnings-reports
• [ev_news_a3c1534f] news_headline — https://www.tradingview.com/news/benzinga:19b9d1502094b:0-what-s-going-on-with-apple-stock-monday
• [ev_news_1186597d] news_headline — https://www.trefis.com/articles/612366/the-premium-on-aapl-stock-vs-what-its-peers-deliver/2026-08-21
• [ev_news_a6ccadbd] news_headline — https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/why-is-apple-stock-rallying-today-93CH-4867792
• [ev_news_f7a53bc9] news_headline — https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/msft
• [ev_news_4771d1bb] news_headline — https://www.chartmill.com/news/MSFT/Chartmill-53922-Microsoft-NASDAQMSFT-Combines-Strong-Growth-with-a-Promising-Technical-Setup
• [ev_news_42633397] news_headline — https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262125424-azure-msft-stock-price-forecast-growth-40percent-570-breakout-tradingkey
• [ev_news_446c3c44] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/software/nasdaq-msft/microsoft/news/is-microsoft-msft-stock-reasonable-if-ai-spending-pays-off
• [ev_news_c1f50421] news_headline — https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/08/24/this-tech-stock-is-being-highly-overlooked-in-the-ai-race
• [ev_news_fe49c055] news_headline — https://www.tradingview.com/news/stockstory:c48f11fa0094b:0-consumer-internet-q2-earnings-alphabet-nasdaq-googl-simply-the-best
• [ev_news_264c6929] news_headline — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/why-alphabet-googl-7-2-153004094.html
• [ev_news_abd530b1] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nasdaq-googl/alphabet/news/alphabet-googl-stock-may-be-23-undervalued-following-25b-ai
• [ev_news_d70f8baa] news_headline — https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Alphabet+Stock+%28GOOGL%29+Opinions+on+Recent+Earnings+and+AI+Outlook
• [ev_news_8a8289d0] news_headline — https://stockstory.org/us/stocks/nasdaq/expe/news/earnings/q2-earnings-roundup-expedia-nasdaqexpe-and-the-rest-of-the-consumer-internet-segment
• [ev_news_7de4e184] news_headline — https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:87ab4c772094b:0-micron-alphabet-amazon-and-nvidia-are-part-of-zacks-earnings-preview
• [ev_news_cc7f6c52] news_headline — https://www.investors.com/research/best-stocks-seven-magnificent-stocks-earnings-growth
• [ev_news_cd6f8bc3] news_headline — https://www.barrons.com/articles/marvell-earnings-stock-price-google-deal-17f2cfdd
• [ev_fundamentals_059944f4] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_bfb5fb0c] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_55b583b1] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_6a6d3db6] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_c66edfa0] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:MSFT
• [ev_fundamentals_a23e9ef6] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:MSFT