Compiled by the machine desk — no human review before publication. Analytics, not advice.

Machine desk record: 24 claims graded, 71% held up.

Daily Tape — 2026-08-24: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT

Tickers: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT Valid from: 2026-08-24T10:06:57.214505+00:00

By the numbers

• metric: Overnight session returns

• value: GOOGL +1.22% to $344.82

• comparison: widest move vs MSFT +0.43% ($483.24) and AAPL -0.63% ($309.35); AAPL the only decliner

• period: prior session into 2026-08-24 pre-market

• Apple last traded at $309.35, down 0.63% on the prior session. [ev_quote_1bfa6ace]

• Alphabet last traded at $344.82, up 1.22% on the prior session. [ev_quote_c06e0246]

• Microsoft last traded at $483.24, up 0.43% on the prior session. [ev_quote_a0a8efa1]

• Among AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT, Alphabet posted the largest overnight percentage move at +1.22%, and Apple was the only decliner. [ev_quote_1bfa6ace] [ev_quote_c06e0246] [ev_quote_a0a8efa1]

Thesis

• statement: Neutral on AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT: Street tallies still lean constructive, but a quiet overnight tape and unresolved AI-versus-valuation debates leave no reason to upgrade or cut ahead of late-October earnings.

• frame: Standing multi-name neutral; no change

• why_now: Convergence scores of 1 and sub-1.3% overnight moves confirm a no-catalyst session, so this brief restates the existing stance rather than rewriting it.

• Overnight tape was quiet: AAPL last $309.35 (−0.63%), GOOGL $344.82 (+1.22%), and MSFT $483.24 (+0.43%), each with a convergence score of 1. [ev_quote_1bfa6ace] [ev_quote_c06e0246] [ev_quote_a0a8efa1] [ev_conv_2d69dddc] [ev_conv_5a1cc657] [ev_conv_6422a9e7]

• Apple's 2026-08-01 Street snapshot is mixed at 24 buys, 14 holds, and 3 sells. [ev_rec_f4dcd654]

• Alphabet's 2026-08-01 Street snapshot is 42 buys, 8 holds, and 0 sells. [ev_rec_33091481]

• Microsoft's 2026-08-01 Street snapshot is 41 buys, 5 holds, and 0 sells. [ev_rec_3a5b6663]

• The next scheduled earnings dates are 2026-10-27 for MSFT and GOOGL and 2026-10-28 for AAPL. [ev_earn_1f5168d9] [ev_earn_499c498d] [ev_earn_202d698e]

• Apple's live debate is whether a lower AI-spend profile and the iPhone franchise can justify a premium multiple versus peers. [ev_news_8a4b7e3c] [ev_news_0c661501] [ev_news_01ab4fb2] [ev_news_5a5b2cdb]

• Microsoft's live debate is whether Azure/AI spend will pay off or whether the stock has already run too far. [ev_news_e6b8d505] [ev_news_a8f223bf] [ev_news_d4214f29] [ev_cov_8bacbece]

• Alphabet's live debate is whether advertising dominance and AI monetization can offset search-disruption risk, with recent coverage citing a 7.2% post-earnings bounce and a $25b AI bond raise. [ev_cov_c3432b95] [ev_news_3cbb1282] [ev_news_9695ad8d] [ev_news_dd7ca358]

What to watch

• trigger: Q3 earnings cluster: MSFT and GOOGL on Oct 27, AAPL on Oct 28

• metric: EPS and revenue versus consensus

• timeframe: 2026-10-27 to 2026-10-28

• Microsoft and Alphabet are scheduled to report earnings on 2026-10-27, with Apple following on 2026-10-28. [ev_earn_1f5168d9] [ev_earn_499c498d] [ev_earn_202d698e]

• Microsoft reports quarterly earnings on 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_1f5168d9]

• Alphabet reports quarterly earnings on 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_499c498d]

• Apple reports quarterly earnings on 2026-10-28. [ev_earn_202d698e]

By the numbers

• metric: calibrated_p_up_5d

• value: 0.44 (median across AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT)

• comparison: vs. base_rate 0.54 (unweighted mean)

• period: 5-day forward

• MSFT has the highest calibrated 5-day upside probability (0.454) among the three names, driven by a 4-quarter streak of positive EPS surprises (avg +0.26 per share), with the most recent beat of +0.41 in Q2 2026. [ev_fundamentals_136e5cbd] [ev_fundamentals_65c33035]

• GOOGL shows the weakest recent earnings execution, with two consecutive negative surprises in 2026 (−0.13 in Q2, −0.09 in Q1), despite a base_rate of 0.51 for 5-day upside. [ev_fundamentals_3467b2f8] [ev_fundamentals_5200ccc1]

• AAPL's calibrated 5-day upside probability (0.411) is the lowest of the three, below its own base_rate of 0.634, suggesting model-adjusted skepticism relative to historical frequency. [ev_fundamentals_7445c8ab]

Sources

• [ev_conv_6422a9e7] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:MSFT
• [ev_conv_2d69dddc] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:AAPL
• [ev_conv_5a1cc657] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:GOOGL
• [ev_quote_1bfa6ace] market_quote — market data:quote:AAPL
• [ev_quote_a0a8efa1] market_quote — market data:quote:MSFT
• [ev_quote_c06e0246] market_quote — market data:quote:GOOGL
• [ev_cov_79fb763b] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:c242f61f-acaa-43b6-8658-c9e07d615da4
• [ev_cov_ce733171] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:fc23c39c-1d62-499c-9229-cda1be1b5415
• [ev_cov_9c8c08d5] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4bbaf75c-6654-438c-8970-9bd835dd3036
• [ev_cov_9249c6ea] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:cbf8609d-b1fc-416c-adee-60a2e2b9c2b6
• [ev_cov_232f11db] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:70d914a5-b74d-4ffb-87db-02779805aac8
• [ev_cov_898a05c4] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4933044b-3f2d-4659-ace1-093987748e66
• [ev_cov_663eafec] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:96d9775b-6e6d-4bfa-bff5-2cff1d63bd7a
• [ev_cov_7e513b2a] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0dea4c6e-f3a0-44c0-a99f-0257ecd9ac28
• [ev_cov_b4af6345] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aaca6340-5b8f-469c-a705-180b5eaaeed4
• [ev_cov_cd48bfb0] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:28205256-eb7f-409e-9967-afeaf145225b
• [ev_cov_8bacbece] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9b58ec54-d5b0-4da4-b0e0-bbafa8fd19ae
• [ev_cov_c3432b95] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:75022657-1f17-41db-8512-887d99a3e7a0
• [ev_cov_8d50c870] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ab6010fa-1077-4f25-ab7b-61cd5bcfa251
• [ev_cov_048e9036] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:114fcb90-ced3-4f1c-bd29-59fbc61733d2
• [ev_cov_a8b5a23c] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ea818bf7-d7b6-4a62-a521-4082f94e08bb
• [ev_cov_6c409cfe] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3b293610-9791-4798-a878-681cd86c1177
• [ev_cov_636113d8] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7d859949-c025-4d08-9194-c0791a95293a
• [ev_cov_c64abd03] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:194985d4-5698-4529-a8b5-d77eb8962804
• [ev_cov_7b223011] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0e4f5a74-b6fc-4458-9fdc-a5fc0e61c515
• [ev_cov_b8237ea2] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7ff9ef16-ebcb-4ecd-bc6f-c0b90f19c39f
• [ev_cov_0036e648] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:e9792545-5aa8-41bd-840b-da72e4ea0523
• [ev_cov_c3a48646] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aec66cd1-8415-4fcb-bc88-443cd97baf50
• [ev_cov_66919082] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:8da79f89-fc92-47b6-b461-54504b3b9959
• [ev_cov_26004414] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:da91a3bf-68fe-4a22-869a-494cb6bfdc37
• [ev_profile_2b567cde] company_profile — market data:profile:AAPL
• [ev_rec_f4dcd654] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:AAPL
• [ev_profile_4e092e9a] company_profile — market data:profile:MSFT
• [ev_rec_3a5b6663] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:MSFT
• [ev_profile_8b1ba4ce] company_profile — market data:profile:GOOGL
• [ev_rec_33091481] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:GOOGL
• [ev_earn_202d698e] earnings_date — market data:earnings:AAPL
• [ev_earn_1f5168d9] earnings_date — market data:earnings:MSFT
• [ev_earn_499c498d] earnings_date — market data:earnings:GOOGL
• [ev_news_4d4c3c16] news_headline — https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/msft
• [ev_news_d4214f29] news_headline — https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262125424-azure-msft-stock-price-forecast-growth-40percent-570-breakout-tradingkey
• [ev_news_aee656e2] news_headline — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/q2-earnings-season-standout-performers-232900437.html
• [ev_news_e6b8d505] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/software/nasdaq-msft/microsoft/news/is-microsoft-msft-stock-reasonable-if-ai-spending-pays-off
• [ev_news_086a36a6] news_headline — https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:3d886503e094b:0-oracle-vs-microsoft-which-enterprise-ai-stock-is-the-better-buy
• [ev_news_ad817a36] news_headline — https://stockinvest.us/stock/MSFT
• [ev_news_bc9b7d3c] news_headline — https://www.investors.com/research/microsoft-msft-stock-buy-now-august-2026
• [ev_news_a8f223bf] news_headline — https://seekingalpha.com/article/4937687-microsoft-the-price-climbed-too-far-too-fast
• [ev_news_a962fe89] news_headline — https://www.benzinga.com/quote/AAPL
• [ev_news_0c661501] news_headline — https://seekingalpha.com/article/4938699-apple-iphones-winning-strategy-could-outlast-the-ai-wars
• [ev_news_bfa43312] news_headline — https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/08/18/what-bofa-and-morgan-stanley-are-saying-about-apple-aapl-stock-in-august
• [ev_news_5a5b2cdb] news_headline — https://www.trefis.com/stock/aapl/articles/612366/the-premium-on-aapl-stock-vs-what-its-peers-deliver/2026-08-21
• [ev_news_01ab4fb2] news_headline — https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:4f294ff3b094b:0-is-apple-stock-s-33-54x-pe-still-worth-it-buy-sell-or-hold
• [ev_news_8a4b7e3c] news_headline — https://qz.com/apple-stock-magnificent-seven-ai-spending-market-edge-081926
• [ev_news_ac12b8ae] news_headline — https://stockinvest.us/stock/AAPL
• [ev_news_3139dcf5] news_headline — https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/why-is-apple-stock-rallying-today-93CH-4867792
• [ev_news_3cbb1282] news_headline — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/why-alphabet-googl-7-2-153004094.html
• [ev_news_dd7ca358] news_headline — https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Alphabet+Stock+%28GOOGL%29+Opinions+on+Recent+Earnings+and+AI+Outlook
• [ev_news_447a82c6] news_headline — https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262008961-alphabet-googl-stock-price-forecast-2026-google-cloud-tradingkey
• [ev_news_9695ad8d] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nasdaq-googl/alphabet/news/alphabet-googl-stock-may-be-23-undervalued-following-25b-ai
• [ev_news_1274ef2c] news_headline — https://stockstory.org/us/stocks/nasdaq/expe/news/earnings/q2-earnings-roundup-expedia-nasdaqexpe-and-the-rest-of-the-consumer-internet-segment
• [ev_news_b8613afb] news_headline — https://seekingalpha.com/article/4938443-alphabet-stock-a-berkshire-hathaway-style-compounder-hiding-in-plain-sight
• [ev_fundamentals_32c21c44] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_7445c8ab] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_3467b2f8] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_5200ccc1] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_136e5cbd] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:MSFT
• [ev_fundamentals_65c33035] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:MSFT