Compiled by the machine desk — no human review before publication. Analytics, not advice.

Machine desk record: 19 claims graded, 84% held up.

Daily Tape — 2026-08-21: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT

Tickers: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT Valid from: 2026-08-21T10:12:51.961910+00:00

Thesis

• statement: Stay neutral on AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT: overnight softness is a rising-yield Nasdaq tape, not a company-specific break, and the standing view does not change ahead of late-October earnings.

• frame: Standing-neutral mega-caps in a yields tape

• why_now: Convergence signals printed on all three names on the same rising-yield, Nasdaq-soft session, Street books remain net-buy, and there is no company catalyst until late October.

• AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT are each printing a convergence signal (score=1). [ev_conv_b1def401] [ev_conv_9067de84] [ev_conv_67259091]

• AAPL last traded at $311.30, down 1.75%. [ev_quote_9ce8828c]

• GOOGL last traded at $340.67, down 1.17%. [ev_quote_aa29e01a]

• MSFT last traded at $481.15, down 0.46%. [ev_quote_e54f00ed]

• As of the 2026-08-01 snapshot, Street books remain net-buy on all three: MSFT 41 buy / 5 hold / 0 sell, GOOGL 42 buy / 8 hold / 0 sell, and AAPL a more mixed 24 buy / 14 hold / 3 sell. [ev_rec_eeb4aca3] [ev_rec_84047b7d] [ev_rec_7b2ab72e]

• The recent mega-cap tape has been pressured as Treasury yields rose and the Nasdaq sold off, with U.S. stock futures muted as bond yields resumed their uptrend. [ev_news_b491b1b4] [ev_news_4aefbbe1]

• The next scheduled earnings dates are 2026-10-27 for MSFT and GOOGL and 2026-10-28 for AAPL. [ev_earn_366037ba] [ev_earn_7b50fe21] [ev_earn_0a52235e]

By the numbers

• metric: Session return

• value: AAPL −1.75% to $311.30; GOOGL −1.17% to $340.67; MSFT −0.46% to $481.15

• comparison: AAPL led the three-name decline versus GOOGL and MSFT

• period: latest session into 2026-08-21

• AAPL last traded at $311.30, down 1.75% on the session. [ev_quote_9ce8828c]

• GOOGL last traded at $340.67, down 1.17% on the session. [ev_quote_aa29e01a]

• MSFT last traded at $481.15, down 0.46% on the session. [ev_quote_e54f00ed]

• AAPL's 1.75% drop was the steepest session decline among AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT. [ev_quote_9ce8828c] [ev_quote_aa29e01a] [ev_quote_e54f00ed]

• As of 2026-08-01, GOOGL's Street book stood at 42 buy, 8 hold, and 0 sell. [ev_rec_84047b7d]

• As of 2026-08-01, MSFT's Street book stood at 41 buy, 5 hold, and 0 sell. [ev_rec_eeb4aca3]

• As of 2026-08-01, AAPL's Street book was more mixed at 24 buy, 14 hold, and 3 sell — the only one of the three names with sell ratings. [ev_rec_7b2ab72e] [ev_rec_84047b7d] [ev_rec_eeb4aca3]

What to watch

• trigger: Late-October earnings prints as the checkpoint for whether Aug 21 mega-cap weakness is a dip-buy or a broader repricing

• metric: EPS versus consensus

• timeframe: Oct 27-28, 2026

• Microsoft, Alphabet, and Apple all report quarterly earnings within a two-day window on October 27-28, 2026. [ev_earn_366037ba] [ev_earn_7b50fe21] [ev_earn_0a52235e]

• Apple shares fall at least 5% over the 10 days following August 21, 2026. [ev_quote_9ce8828c] [ev_news_b491b1b4] [ev_news_4aefbbe1]

• Microsoft shares fall at least 5% over the 10 days following August 21, 2026. [ev_quote_e54f00ed] [ev_news_b491b1b4] [ev_news_4aefbbe1]

• Microsoft will beat consensus EPS at its October 27, 2026 earnings report. [ev_earn_366037ba] [ev_rec_eeb4aca3] [ev_news_fa1f305b]

• Alphabet will beat consensus EPS at its October 27, 2026 earnings report. [ev_earn_7b50fe21] [ev_rec_84047b7d] [ev_news_acfb8c66]

• Apple will beat consensus EPS at its October 28, 2026 earnings report. [ev_earn_0a52235e] [ev_rec_7b2ab72e]

By the numbers

• metric: calibrated_p_up_5d

• value: 0.42–0.47

• comparison: all three names cluster within 5 percentage points

• period: 5-day forward

• MSFT has the highest calibrated 5-day upside probability (0.472) among the three names, reflecting consistent recent earnings beats (4 consecutive quarters with positive surprises, most recent +0.41 in Q2 2026). [ev_fundamentals_2d1f85b5] [ev_fundamentals_2321d460]

• GOOGL shows the lowest calibrated 5-day upside probability (0.452) despite a large positive surprise in Q3 2025 (+0.70), but has missed estimates in the last two quarters (Q2 2026: -0.13, Q1 2026: -0.09), signaling deteriorating earnings momentum. [ev_fundamentals_23f8ccbd] [ev_fundamentals_03653a61]

• AAPL's calibrated 5-day upside probability (0.425) is the lowest of the three, with mixed recent earnings surprises (Q2 2026 miss of -0.017, Q1 2026 beat of +0.022) and a Brier score of 0.279 indicating moderate model calibration uncertainty. [ev_fundamentals_f66954b4] [ev_fundamentals_a8f90cd1]

Sources

• [ev_conv_67259091] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:MSFT
• [ev_conv_b1def401] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:AAPL
• [ev_conv_9067de84] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:GOOGL
• [ev_cov_d41e6e08] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:c242f61f-acaa-43b6-8658-c9e07d615da4
• [ev_cov_2eb43702] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:fc23c39c-1d62-499c-9229-cda1be1b5415
• [ev_cov_1d0063f8] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4bbaf75c-6654-438c-8970-9bd835dd3036
• [ev_cov_f11790ff] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:cbf8609d-b1fc-416c-adee-60a2e2b9c2b6
• [ev_cov_0635b373] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:70d914a5-b74d-4ffb-87db-02779805aac8
• [ev_cov_ffec8cba] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4933044b-3f2d-4659-ace1-093987748e66
• [ev_cov_23a6ad19] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:96d9775b-6e6d-4bfa-bff5-2cff1d63bd7a
• [ev_cov_0d06c90b] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0dea4c6e-f3a0-44c0-a99f-0257ecd9ac28
• [ev_cov_1eb25940] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aaca6340-5b8f-469c-a705-180b5eaaeed4
• [ev_cov_40a2a72b] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:28205256-eb7f-409e-9967-afeaf145225b
• [ev_cov_b3ede93d] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9b58ec54-d5b0-4da4-b0e0-bbafa8fd19ae
• [ev_cov_7437e84c] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:75022657-1f17-41db-8512-887d99a3e7a0
• [ev_cov_d9fdcbb8] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ab6010fa-1077-4f25-ab7b-61cd5bcfa251
• [ev_cov_86de772f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:114fcb90-ced3-4f1c-bd29-59fbc61733d2
• [ev_cov_3390d1b8] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3b293610-9791-4798-a878-681cd86c1177
• [ev_cov_d75d2575] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7d859949-c025-4d08-9194-c0791a95293a
• [ev_cov_a9c2b152] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:194985d4-5698-4529-a8b5-d77eb8962804
• [ev_cov_d2b72993] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0e4f5a74-b6fc-4458-9fdc-a5fc0e61c515
• [ev_cov_000382e7] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7ff9ef16-ebcb-4ecd-bc6f-c0b90f19c39f
• [ev_cov_4a073baa] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:e9792545-5aa8-41bd-840b-da72e4ea0523
• [ev_cov_e2da3f40] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aec66cd1-8415-4fcb-bc88-443cd97baf50
• [ev_cov_b3e9873b] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:8da79f89-fc92-47b6-b461-54504b3b9959
• [ev_cov_cf9b1125] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:da91a3bf-68fe-4a22-869a-494cb6bfdc37
• [ev_quote_aa29e01a] market_quote — market data:quote:GOOGL
• [ev_quote_e54f00ed] market_quote — market data:quote:MSFT
• [ev_quote_9ce8828c] market_quote — market data:quote:AAPL
• [ev_profile_93bcbff8] company_profile — market data:profile:MSFT
• [ev_rec_eeb4aca3] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:MSFT
• [ev_profile_9adeab95] company_profile — market data:profile:AAPL
• [ev_rec_7b2ab72e] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:AAPL
• [ev_earn_366037ba] earnings_date — market data:earnings:MSFT
• [ev_profile_118bf67a] company_profile — market data:profile:GOOGL
• [ev_rec_84047b7d] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:GOOGL
• [ev_earn_0a52235e] earnings_date — market data:earnings:AAPL
• [ev_earn_7b50fe21] earnings_date — market data:earnings:GOOGL
• [ev_news_b491b1b4] news_headline — https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-sp500-nasdaq-treasury-yields-nvidia-stock-nvda/
• [ev_news_4aefbbe1] news_headline — https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-muted-bond-yields-resume-uptrend-ahead-walmarts-earnings-2026-08-20/
• [ev_news_3446d8fc] news_headline — https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/smartstop-self-storage-reit-nysesma-director-david-mueller-sells-425-shares-of-stock-2026-08-18/
• [ev_news_5cf175e3] news_headline — https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-nysetsm-trading-down-4-heres-what-happened-2026-08-18/
• [ev_news_127aca31] news_headline — https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/filing-brookstone-capital-management-acquires-11719-shares-of-taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company-ltd-tsm-2026-08-15/
• [ev_news_d78cb964] news_headline — https://www.forbes.com/sites/ewanspence/2026/08/15/iphone-18-pro-pricing-apple-profit-margin-strategy-price/
• [ev_news_49157977] news_headline — https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/filing-signature-estate-investment-advisors-llc-raises-holdings-in-taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company-ltd-tsm-2026-08-15/
• [ev_news_4375a550] news_headline — https://www.forbes.com/sites/ewanspence/2026/08/16/iphone-18-pro-pricing-apple-profit-margin-strategy-price/
• [ev_news_3ab6f16e] news_headline — https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/microsoft-nasdaqmsft-stock-price-down-3-should-you-sell-2026-08-17
• [ev_news_9fc1f7ed] news_headline — https://www.moomoo.com/stock/MSFT-US/earnings?chain_id=Name1K9-3FXPhg.1l4tp40&global_content=%7B%22promote_id%22%3A13764%2C%22sub_promote_id%22%3A57%2C%22f%22%3A%22www.moomoo.com%2Fstock%2FDYFSF-US%2Ffinancials-cash-flow%22%7D
• [ev_news_aff91f24] news_headline — https://www.chartmill.com/stock/quote/MSFT/news
• [ev_news_4fe8f325] news_headline — https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:58d49f7cf094b:0-can-microsoft-stock-benefit-from-expanding-microsoft-365-seats
• [ev_news_fa1f305b] news_headline — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/q2-earnings-season-standout-performers-232900437.html
• [ev_news_0006cc7b] news_headline — https://seekingalpha.com/article/4937687-microsoft-the-price-climbed-too-far-too-fast
• [ev_news_8096173d] news_headline — https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/17/should-you-buy-microsoft-stock-now-or-wait-for-a-d
• [ev_news_4a946577] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/software/nasdaq-msft/microsoft/news/microsoft-stock-leads-3-ai-stocks-backed-by-real-revenue-and
• [ev_news_643bb299] news_headline — https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/filing-alphabet-inc-googl-shares-acquired-by-generali-investments-management-co-llc-2026-08-19
• [ev_news_6fed42f6] news_headline — https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Alphabet+Stock+%28GOOGL%29+Opinions+on+Recent+AI+Developments+and+Earnings
• [ev_news_acfb8c66] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nasdaq-googl/alphabet/news/alphabet-googl-stock-may-be-23-undervalued-following-25b-ai
• [ev_news_c624542e] news_headline — https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-stock-ratings/analyst-color/26/08/61336559/marvells-google-ai-deal-could-unlock-a-staggering-120-billion-opportunity-analyst-says
• [ev_news_9acfe4f3] news_headline — https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/261866628-google-alphabet-magnificent-seven-ai-cloud-search-valuation-regulation-growth-tradingkey
• [ev_news_d6db93de] news_headline — https://seekingalpha.com/article/4938443-alphabet-stock-a-berkshire-hathaway-style-compounder-hiding-in-plain-sight
• [ev_news_3593417c] news_headline — https://investingnews.com/top-tech-news
• [ev_news_9c4b0d97] news_headline — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/19/where-we-stand-on-broadcom-as-shares-dip-on-googles-deal-with-marvell.html
• [ev_fundamentals_f66954b4] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_a8f90cd1] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_23f8ccbd] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_03653a61] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_2d1f85b5] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:MSFT
• [ev_fundamentals_2321d460] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:MSFT