Compiled by the machine desk — no human review before publication. Analytics, not advice.

Machine desk record: 12 claims graded, 92% held up.

Daily Tape — 2026-08-17: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT

Tickers: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT Valid from: 2026-08-17T10:11:27.238303+00:00

Thesis

• statement: Stay neutral on AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT. Overnight the tape is flat, Street books are already constructive, and the Magnificent 7 / AI-infrastructure story is consensus — the next hard checkpoint is late-October earnings, not this open.

• frame: Standing-neutral, no-catalyst session

• why_now: Pre-market 17 August 2026: sub-0.3% overnight moves, aligned convergence signals, and no company-specific headline that upgrades or downgrades the book.

• Overnight the tape is muted: AAPL last at 305.93 (+0.22%), GOOGL at 345.9 (-0.13%), and MSFT at 495.4 (-0.3%). [ev_quote_4faaccc9] [ev_quote_dc59ff54] [ev_quote_06dd5146]

• AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT each currently carry a convergence signal with score 1. [ev_conv_1e290ddb] [ev_conv_31e8a4f7] [ev_conv_025bf251]

• As of the 1 August 2026 snapshot, Street recommendations remain net constructive: MSFT 41 buy / 5 hold / 0 sell, GOOGL 42 buy / 8 hold / 0 sell, and AAPL a more mixed 24 buy / 14 hold / 3 sell. [ev_rec_0e80c48a] [ev_rec_c2f6b9dd] [ev_rec_2dc02b5d]

• Prior coverage has already framed the Magnificent 7 post-hype divergence and the AI-infrastructure build-out as the dominant, well-known narratives for these names. [ev_cov_2dba0265] [ev_cov_83e7d34f]

• The next scheduled earnings prints are 27 October 2026 for MSFT and GOOGL and 28 October 2026 for AAPL. [ev_earn_ffbc3ea6] [ev_earn_03b6f4a3] [ev_earn_d9504d98]

• AAPL will trade above 290 on 24 August 2026. [ev_quote_4faaccc9] [ev_conv_1e290ddb] [ev_rec_2dc02b5d]

• GOOGL will trade above 330 on 24 August 2026. [ev_quote_dc59ff54] [ev_conv_31e8a4f7] [ev_rec_c2f6b9dd]

• MSFT will trade above 470 on 24 August 2026. [ev_quote_06dd5146] [ev_conv_025bf251] [ev_rec_0e80c48a]

By the numbers

• metric: Overnight price change

• value: AAPL +0.22% ($305.93); GOOGL -0.13% ($345.90); MSFT -0.3% ($495.40)

• comparison: Street book still buy-heavy as of 2026-08-01: AAPL 24 buy / 14 hold / 3 sell; GOOGL 42 buy / 8 hold / 0 sell; MSFT 41 buy / 5 hold / 0 sell

• period: pre-market 2026-08-17

• Apple last traded at $305.93, up 0.22% overnight. [ev_quote_4faaccc9]

• Alphabet last traded at $345.90, down 0.13% overnight. [ev_quote_dc59ff54]

• Microsoft last traded at $495.40, down 0.3% overnight. [ev_quote_06dd5146]

• Overnight tape across AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT stayed inside a 0.52-percentage-point band, with no name moving more than 0.3%. [ev_quote_4faaccc9] [ev_quote_dc59ff54] [ev_quote_06dd5146]

• As of August 1, 2026, Apple's Street book stood at 24 buy, 14 hold, and 3 sell ratings. [ev_rec_2dc02b5d]

• As of August 1, 2026, Alphabet's Street book stood at 42 buy, 8 hold, and 0 sell ratings. [ev_rec_c2f6b9dd]

• As of August 1, 2026, Microsoft's Street book stood at 41 buy, 5 hold, and 0 sell ratings. [ev_rec_0e80c48a]

What to watch

• trigger: MSFT/GOOGL Oct 27 and AAPL Oct 28 earnings prints

• metric: EPS and revenue vs. consensus

• timeframe: Oct 27–28, 2026

• Microsoft is scheduled to report fiscal first-quarter results on October 27, 2026, the first print in this mega-cap cluster. [ev_earn_ffbc3ea6]

• Alphabet is scheduled to report third-quarter results on October 27, 2026, the same session as Microsoft. [ev_earn_03b6f4a3]

• Apple is scheduled to report fiscal fourth-quarter results on October 28, 2026, one session after MSFT and GOOGL. [ev_earn_d9504d98]

• Street positioning into the prints is one-sided at Microsoft (41 buy / 0 sell) and Alphabet (42 buy / 0 sell) as of the August 1 snapshot, while Apple is more mixed at 24 buy / 14 hold / 3 sell. [ev_rec_0e80c48a] [ev_rec_c2f6b9dd] [ev_rec_2dc02b5d]

By the numbers

• metric: calibrated_p_up_5d

• value: 0.508 (mean across AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT)

• comparison: vs. base_rate 0.542 (mean)

• period: 5-day forward

• MSFT has beaten earnings estimates in all four most recent quarters (Q3 2025 +0.3909, Q4 2025 +0.1055, Q1 2026 +0.1268, Q2 2026 +0.4126), with a mean surprise of +0.2589 per quarter. [ev_fundamentals_828d9aea]

• GOOGL has missed earnings estimates in two of the last three quarters (Q1 2026 -0.0851, Q2 2026 -0.1298), with a mean surprise of -0.0337 across the four-quarter window. [ev_fundamentals_d9d99c09]

• AAPL's calibrated 5-day up probability (0.464) is materially below its own base rate (0.598), suggesting model-adjusted downside bias relative to historical frequency. [ev_fundamentals_396b6e0f]

• MSFT's calibrated 5-day up probability (0.514) is above its base rate (0.500), indicating model-adjusted upside tilt. [ev_fundamentals_39caa4e0]

• GOOGL's calibrated 5-day up probability (0.545) exceeds its base rate (0.527), suggesting modest model-adjusted upside bias. [ev_fundamentals_32414f20]

Sources

• [ev_conv_025bf251] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:MSFT
• [ev_conv_1e290ddb] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:AAPL
• [ev_conv_31e8a4f7] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:GOOGL
• [ev_quote_4faaccc9] market_quote — market data:quote:AAPL
• [ev_quote_dc59ff54] market_quote — market data:quote:GOOGL
• [ev_quote_06dd5146] market_quote — market data:quote:MSFT
• [ev_cov_83e7d34f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:c242f61f-acaa-43b6-8658-c9e07d615da4
• [ev_cov_2dba0265] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:fc23c39c-1d62-499c-9229-cda1be1b5415
• [ev_cov_d41eac17] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4bbaf75c-6654-438c-8970-9bd835dd3036
• [ev_cov_44678ce3] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:70d914a5-b74d-4ffb-87db-02779805aac8
• [ev_cov_75ced861] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0dea4c6e-f3a0-44c0-a99f-0257ecd9ac28
• [ev_cov_d70dbeeb] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4933044b-3f2d-4659-ace1-093987748e66
• [ev_cov_977f0328] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:96d9775b-6e6d-4bfa-bff5-2cff1d63bd7a
• [ev_cov_614636c7] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aaca6340-5b8f-469c-a705-180b5eaaeed4
• [ev_cov_7083cea5] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9b58ec54-d5b0-4da4-b0e0-bbafa8fd19ae
• [ev_cov_14196c20] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:75022657-1f17-41db-8512-887d99a3e7a0
• [ev_cov_9ecac49f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:ab6010fa-1077-4f25-ab7b-61cd5bcfa251
• [ev_cov_71799b49] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:114fcb90-ced3-4f1c-bd29-59fbc61733d2
• [ev_cov_619cfab9] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3b293610-9791-4798-a878-681cd86c1177
• [ev_cov_9604a62f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:8da79f89-fc92-47b6-b461-54504b3b9959
• [ev_cov_1c7337e5] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7d859949-c025-4d08-9194-c0791a95293a
• [ev_cov_a59dfcca] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aec66cd1-8415-4fcb-bc88-443cd97baf50
• [ev_cov_5f28a645] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:194985d4-5698-4529-a8b5-d77eb8962804
• [ev_cov_6325e75d] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0e4f5a74-b6fc-4458-9fdc-a5fc0e61c515
• [ev_cov_005fdd9b] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7ff9ef16-ebcb-4ecd-bc6f-c0b90f19c39f
• [ev_cov_829bf1d9] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:e9792545-5aa8-41bd-840b-da72e4ea0523
• [ev_profile_2b268452] company_profile — market data:profile:AAPL
• [ev_rec_2dc02b5d] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:AAPL
• [ev_profile_24dca0cf] company_profile — market data:profile:MSFT
• [ev_rec_0e80c48a] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:MSFT
• [ev_earn_d9504d98] earnings_date — market data:earnings:AAPL
• [ev_earn_ffbc3ea6] earnings_date — market data:earnings:MSFT
• [ev_profile_cfb15176] company_profile — market data:profile:GOOGL
• [ev_rec_c2f6b9dd] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:GOOGL
• [ev_earn_03b6f4a3] earnings_date — market data:earnings:GOOGL
• [ev_news_0e75a4fa] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/tech/nasdaq-aapl/apple/news/apple-aapl-faces-a-valuation-test-following-earnings-and-pro
• [ev_news_80ffe406] news_headline — https://www.forbes.com/companies/apple
• [ev_news_56833c79] news_headline — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/apple-aapl-stock-looks-pricey-201003572.html
• [ev_news_3217ea14] news_headline — https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/aapl
• [ev_news_425ce29d] news_headline — https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Apple+Stock+%28AAPL%29+Opinions+on+Recent+Earnings+and+Analyst+Downgrades
• [ev_news_4e4012b9] news_headline — https://www.benzinga.com/quote/AAPL
• [ev_news_08dea49a] news_headline — https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/13/apple-dropped-by-5-after-earning-history-says-this
• [ev_news_70398b71] news_headline — https://www.aol.com/articles/apples-latest-earnings-report-surprised-093500000.html
• [ev_news_05d609b3] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nasdaq-googl/alphabet/future
• [ev_news_9f5a894f] news_headline — https://www.benzinga.com/quote/GOOGL
• [ev_news_36b51311] news_headline — https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Alphabet+Stock+%28GOOGL%29+Opinions+on+Recent+AI+Developments+and+Earnings
• [ev_news_5b9e2699] news_headline — https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262008961-alphabet-googl-stock-price-forecast-2026-google-cloud-tradingkey
• [ev_news_b5295dd3] news_headline — https://stockinvest.us/stock/GOOGL
• [ev_news_158f4041] news_headline — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/alphabet-googl-stock-may-20-171015426.html
• [ev_news_51ac5c58] news_headline — https://www.gurufocus.com/news/9031237/microsoft-msft-stock-rises-26-post-q4-earnings-report
• [ev_news_b3a067ad] news_headline — https://seekingalpha.com/article/4936171-microsoft-buy-for-the-value-enjoy-a-dividend-snack
• [ev_news_5a1fdded] news_headline — https://www.cnn.com/markets/stocks/MSFT
• [ev_news_1a3de8ad] news_headline — https://www.tikr.com/blog/microsoft-stock-is-down-5-this-year-but-its-up-33-since-june-heres-where-shares-could-go-in-2026
• [ev_news_779fa04a] news_headline — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/article/microsoft-stock-just-cleared-a-big-hurdle-but-still-trails-the-sp-500-130843662.html
• [ev_news_86564ac1] news_headline — https://www.moomoo.com/stock/MSFT-US/earnings?chain_id=Name1K9-3FXPhg.1l4tp40&global_content=%7B%22promote_id%22%3A13764%2C%22sub_promote_id%22%3A57%2C%22f%22%3A%22www.moomoo.com%2Fstock%2FDYFSF-US%2Ffinancials-cash-flow%22%7D
• [ev_news_3c1b66d8] news_headline — https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:f80fe3ad6094b:0-magnificent-seven-earnings-remain-robust-msft-aapl
• [ev_fundamentals_8f1d2270] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_396b6e0f] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_d9d99c09] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_32414f20] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_828d9aea] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:MSFT
• [ev_fundamentals_39caa4e0] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:MSFT