Compiled by the machine desk — no human review before publication. Analytics, not advice.

Machine desk record: 7 claims graded, 100% held up.

Daily Tape — 2026-08-11: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT

Tickers: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT Valid from: 2026-08-11T10:06:02.914918+00:00

By the numbers

• metric: Overnight session price change

• value: AAPL -1.53% ($308.26); GOOGL +0.91% ($357.52); MSFT +1.21% ($506.06)

• comparison: Mixed mega-cap tape — AAPL lagging while GOOGL and MSFT advanced

• period: Prior session into 2026-08-11 pre-market

• AAPL last traded at $308.26, down 1.53% on the prior session. [ev_quote_de47b1dc]

• GOOGL last traded at $357.52, up 0.91% on the prior session. [ev_quote_1e9d8d24]

• MSFT last traded at $506.06, up 1.21% on the prior session. [ev_quote_2dff46db]

• Overnight mega-cap tech tape was mixed, with AAPL declining while GOOGL and MSFT both posted gains. [ev_quote_de47b1dc] [ev_quote_1e9d8d24] [ev_quote_2dff46db]

Catalyst

• event: AAPL downgraded ahead of iPhone 18; GOOGL $25B AI bond deal; MSFT flagged for ~$100B/GW inference revenue opportunity

• magnitude: Material sentiment drivers; mixed overnight tape (AAPL -1.53%, GOOGL +0.91%, MSFT +1.21%)

• timing: Aug 7–10, 2026 (still reverberating into Aug 11 pre-market)

• expected_impact: Near-term divergence: AAPL pressured on downgrade/AI-setback narrative; GOOGL/MSFT supported by AI funding and inference-scale upside framing

• Apple stock was downgraded on Aug 10, 2026, in coverage framed ahead of the iPhone 18 launch. [ev_news_ca0adf78]

• AAPL last traded at 308.26, down 1.53% on the session quote in the evidence pool. [ev_quote_de47b1dc]

• Alphabet tapped bond markets with a $25 billion AI funding deal reported around Aug 7, 2026. [ev_news_bfb9be44]

• GOOGL last traded at 357.52, up 0.91% on the session quote in the evidence pool. [ev_quote_1e9d8d24]

• On Aug 10, 2026, SemiAnalysis-linked coverage positioned Microsoft to rival OpenAI and Anthropic via a reported $100B-per-GW inference revenue opportunity. [ev_news_b22a1bd2]

• MSFT last traded at 506.06, up 1.21% on the session quote in the evidence pool. [ev_quote_2dff46db]

• AAPL will fall at least 3% over the next 10 days as the Aug 10 downgrade and AI/regulatory overhang continue to weigh on the stock. [ev_news_ca0adf78] [ev_news_e3108a64] [ev_quote_de47b1dc]

• MSFT will trade above 506.06 within 10 days, extending post-earnings/AI-inference momentum. [ev_news_b22a1bd2] [ev_news_2d39a8db] [ev_quote_2dff46db]

Thesis

• statement: Standing neutral on AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT: overnight tape and recent catalysts have not changed the baseline view that each name is fairly balanced pending the next fundamental checkpoints.

• frame: Quiet-thesis anchor for the mega-cap tech trio after mixed overnight action

• why_now: Despite AAPL −1.53%, GOOGL +0.91%, and MSFT +1.21% overnight, plus still-fresh catalysts (AAPL Aug 10 downgrade, GOOGL $25B AI bond deal, MSFT earnings/AI inference opportunity), no new material evidence warrants shifting off neutral.

• AAPL last traded at 308.26, down 1.53% on the session referenced in this brief. [ev_quote_de47b1dc]

• GOOGL last traded at 357.52, up 0.91% on the session referenced in this brief. [ev_quote_1e9d8d24]

• MSFT last traded at 506.06, up 1.21% on the session referenced in this brief. [ev_quote_2dff46db]

• As of the 2026-08-01 analyst snapshot, AAPL carries a mixed but still net-positive setup of 24 buy / 14 hold / 3 sell ratings, consistent with a neutral rather than outright bullish house stance. [ev_rec_c1fbc459]

• As of the 2026-08-01 analyst snapshot, GOOGL carries a strongly constructive 42 buy / 8 hold / 0 sell ratings base that supports holding a neutral (not underweight) framing until the next earnings print. [ev_rec_b616d4de]

• As of the 2026-08-01 analyst snapshot, MSFT carries a strongly constructive 41 buy / 5 hold / 0 sell ratings base that supports holding a neutral framing after the recent earnings and AI-inference headlines. [ev_rec_89a75ec1]

• Convergence signal scores sit at 1 for AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT, indicating low multi-factor alignment and reinforcing the quiet, neutral thesis posture rather than a high-conviction directional call. [ev_conv_4cb68394] [ev_conv_6cf5fcd9] [ev_conv_7cf0450d]

• Next scheduled earnings checkpoints that could force a thesis re-rate are GOOGL and MSFT on 2026-10-27 and AAPL on 2026-10-28. [ev_earn_867123f2] [ev_earn_69be96d9] [ev_earn_8b0c44cf]

By the numbers

• metric: Analyst buy/hold/sell tallies (AAPL / GOOGL / MSFT)

• value: 24/14/3, 42/8/0, 41/5/0

• comparison: GOOGL and MSFT carry zero sell ratings; AAPL alone has 3 sells after a recent downgrade, yet buys still outnumber sells ~8:1

• period: as of 2026-08-01

• As of 2026-08-01, AAPL’s Street recommendation tally stands at 24 buy, 14 hold, and 3 sell. [ev_rec_c1fbc459]

• As of 2026-08-01, GOOGL’s Street recommendation tally stands at 42 buy, 8 hold, and 0 sell. [ev_rec_b616d4de]

• As of 2026-08-01, MSFT’s Street recommendation tally stands at 41 buy, 5 hold, and 0 sell. [ev_rec_89a75ec1]

• Despite an Aug 10 Apple stock downgrade ahead of the iPhone 18 launch, the broader Street remains constructive on AAPL, with buys (24) still far exceeding sells (3). [ev_rec_c1fbc459] [ev_news_ca0adf78]

What to watch

• trigger: MSFT and GOOGL report on Oct 27; AAPL on Oct 28; track iPhone 18 launch readiness into the print

• metric: EPS and revenue vs consensus

• timeframe: Late October 2026

• GOOGL’s next scheduled earnings date is 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_867123f2]

• MSFT’s next scheduled earnings date is 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_69be96d9]

• AAPL’s next scheduled earnings date is 2026-10-28. [ev_earn_8b0c44cf]

• MSFT will beat EPS consensus at its next earnings print. [ev_earn_69be96d9] [ev_news_2d39a8db] [ev_news_b450d52d] [ev_rec_89a75ec1]

• GOOGL will beat EPS consensus at its next earnings print. [ev_earn_867123f2] [ev_news_0609e2c1] [ev_rec_b616d4de]

• AAPL will beat EPS consensus at its next earnings print. [ev_earn_8b0c44cf] [ev_news_ca0adf78] [ev_rec_c1fbc459]

• AAPL faces a recent analyst downgrade framed around the upcoming iPhone 18 launch, making launch readiness a key pre-earnings checkpoint. [ev_news_ca0adf78] [ev_earn_8b0c44cf]

By the numbers

• metric: calibrated_p_up_5d

• value: 0.502 (AAPL), 0.592 (GOOGL), 0.482 (MSFT)

• comparison: vs. 0.50 fair-value threshold

• period: 5-day forward

• AAPL's calibrated 5-day up probability is 50.2%, statistically indistinguishable from a fair coin and below the base-rate prior of 59.8%, indicating model-adjusted downward revision. [ev_fundamentals_629f24bf]

• GOOGL shows the highest calibrated 5-day up probability at 59.2%, above its own base-rate prior of 52.7%, suggesting modest model-adjusted upward revision despite recent EPS misses in Q2 and Q1 2026. [ev_fundamentals_151e3cfd] [ev_fundamentals_d7f9d005]

• MSFT's calibrated 5-day up probability is 48.2%, below its base-rate prior of 51.8%, despite a consistent pattern of positive EPS surprises across the last four quarters (ranging +0.11 to +0.41). [ev_fundamentals_cea5ffb0] [ev_fundamentals_f493da1c]

• MSFT has beaten EPS estimates in all four most recent quarters (Q2 2026: +0.41, Q1 2026: +0.13, Q4 2025: +0.11, Q3 2025: +0.39), establishing a 100% beat rate; GOOGL has missed in two of the last three quarters (Q2 2026: −0.13, Q1 2026: −0.09). [ev_fundamentals_f493da1c] [ev_fundamentals_d7f9d005]

Sources

• [ev_quote_de47b1dc] market_quote — market data:quote:AAPL
• [ev_quote_1e9d8d24] market_quote — market data:quote:GOOGL
• [ev_quote_2dff46db] market_quote — market data:quote:MSFT
• [ev_conv_4cb68394] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:AAPL
• [ev_conv_6cf5fcd9] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:GOOGL
• [ev_conv_7cf0450d] convergence_signal — supabase:watchlist_convergence:MSFT
• [ev_cov_05dd0179] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:c242f61f-acaa-43b6-8658-c9e07d615da4
• [ev_cov_1d348989] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:fc23c39c-1d62-499c-9229-cda1be1b5415
• [ev_cov_eaf72847] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4bbaf75c-6654-438c-8970-9bd835dd3036
• [ev_cov_95ee6f02] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:70d914a5-b74d-4ffb-87db-02779805aac8
• [ev_cov_2329e262] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0dea4c6e-f3a0-44c0-a99f-0257ecd9ac28
• [ev_cov_e659e833] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:4933044b-3f2d-4659-ace1-093987748e66
• [ev_cov_2ad38455] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:96d9775b-6e6d-4bfa-bff5-2cff1d63bd7a
• [ev_cov_ed235990] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aaca6340-5b8f-469c-a705-180b5eaaeed4
• [ev_cov_03419f49] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:9b58ec54-d5b0-4da4-b0e0-bbafa8fd19ae
• [ev_cov_9c9de324] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:75022657-1f17-41db-8512-887d99a3e7a0
• [ev_cov_8163c60f] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:3b293610-9791-4798-a878-681cd86c1177
• [ev_cov_5f12b976] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:8da79f89-fc92-47b6-b461-54504b3b9959
• [ev_cov_66cc5a4b] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:aec66cd1-8415-4fcb-bc88-443cd97baf50
• [ev_cov_68b7f23c] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7d859949-c025-4d08-9194-c0791a95293a
• [ev_cov_e02e9593] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:194985d4-5698-4529-a8b5-d77eb8962804
• [ev_cov_00d59fea] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:7ff9ef16-ebcb-4ecd-bc6f-c0b90f19c39f
• [ev_cov_604e1302] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:e9792545-5aa8-41bd-840b-da72e4ea0523
• [ev_cov_4ab9a7de] existing_coverage — supabase:research_artifacts:0e4f5a74-b6fc-4458-9fdc-a5fc0e61c515
• [ev_profile_fb652628] company_profile — market data:profile:GOOGL
• [ev_rec_b616d4de] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:GOOGL
• [ev_profile_ef9c4611] company_profile — market data:profile:AAPL
• [ev_rec_c1fbc459] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:AAPL
• [ev_profile_6d8a83cc] company_profile — market data:profile:MSFT
• [ev_rec_89a75ec1] analyst_recommendation — market data:recommendation:MSFT
• [ev_earn_8b0c44cf] earnings_date — market data:earnings:AAPL
• [ev_earn_867123f2] earnings_date — market data:earnings:GOOGL
• [ev_earn_69be96d9] earnings_date — market data:earnings:MSFT
• [ev_news_afeeadda] news_headline — https://www.google.com/goto?url=CAESkwEB7keqTU_Ry9HInMuWK4xkdm26BB-ywebRqh4NvinORKVsPBIiLhmlQs0i1xdtwJVWfeQyoaqqYcaCbCqODRRRx6n65MaLfZquRFiQHbRnYx5bYq6xPrIZ_AMxLg2lmkK0Hns_oOq0nInS6KQrYEEuG7OXxoBTRiRQq_XxPRX9_hijPsqC93sOiutaWciSOcRL1hc%3D
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• [ev_news_04821d2e] news_headline — https://www.google.com/goto?url=CAESqAEB7keqTTtgzI8LLWLHDV9I3YeUooohFnzXCeXakKoEc9bvviZKTanjz-MIujjeotPoVwLMPqxmYeV8xkVSBkXqYieR0sLsDR0WFYmSNiesBMbEngknuskghHSSBp1ODLquP8D-bnFp2DTWvM_zf9blXhH7YWXVnBd4yfjITRRRjAEWG80QvcJX2OZR337_lv0Wh9G5Bh9YiK98LrcT6UNCnsvIjybH0K8%3D
• [ev_news_b1cd1ae6] news_headline — https://www.google.com/goto?url=CAESiAEB7keqTWLcooX-TQHprwBzl60Iswy6P6vwDK5JgyH8haa6PAvsK15JVxv7rK__rrcL8DaVZ5QZ6hgPg-_1rimNTr8dZg5wQXeVQW_1jRlL8xG3ixtrEKaD613lk0SWGIBQaAyCchy7wxFc9oG3g3AoaRXMlEv62trPwNWueckVvU55GVAfIp5F
• [ev_news_fd4f72d4] news_headline — https://www.google.com/goto?url=CAESfAHuR6pN5MrxC8tr0C_PQrr-u3vwJsiRj5L00r0Mx5W4hUjaWrUyOBAI-qyJtYuSjRGnH2l0TYBUA8lxOAg6-7_HewPZwBgYV5gD8lKeWKyyj13hBdT2UWRwJj4QyRvamoGebip4gz8gqPCANLicroYvi_5zT5MGAUvtRS8%3D
• [ev_news_e3108a64] news_headline — https://www.google.com/goto?url=CAESvwEB7keqTRsVe6eTQNOTMsU0CH7OrIbOdaMeprc2mYBMUqmSPhtMhgjf8TgACcxmXLv1xWuRrtsU1CpYUk3P3n2jeQxrO25VrrV8T2V3DZgryGBXKvPSDq7Vkc6-Ntq4Plocwe6Ii9l7xSNdb42d1OYp6BsvJsgeKmpO1GLvHmRRYdsre4vOIA6fzXb2QqdhwmRy3E-xveWvGUu26FY7d4UM4XTTAe7qQ34daaEBqmmqSZf2GeGl7b9srT796_gBjg%3D%3D
• [ev_news_ca0adf78] news_headline — https://www.google.com/goto?url=CAESkQEB7keqTQzevZk0GpMrncO_QJIcqWCNZOCBpW3meqTHR2_a08sw01I4ULfMmtrma76JBElYLW8wjwcwvAvhRBluwIFe4MOr-76nmLLx_vlZ_9fSKWbBnYvzGxVe2hFka3_Sx05yWU48NSCrImEOtYFjGfYCMMEylDDq7ZPkArNT2diPMZveaTvdGrh3qO6PNPiu
• [ev_news_fa790f3b] news_headline — https://www.google.com/goto?url=CAESeAHuR6pNM05Cxs0n7Kid-FH9gsBKbMHBqBb0ndE4Rb17K8spBAMaYux1gxNnDQIQzziihP6eqd2MmuNJMrd6_2c3PbR2oRZt1xeJLPS0l1C7zvgv3kf-5cU-iAZZSlvydANlNe59PD5F8Out-r9QpGGAXnQFSPWLCQ%3D%3D
• [ev_news_fb43cdff] news_headline — https://www.google.com/goto?url=CAESuQEB7keqTRUVtsSMqrhRQkbXqpWOmnyN14IrWbTUbVnie50aJ4k0mxKE0r_ffNvpxh81sqVqDpWEGUHd0mjQqAWKGXkgfEiPniy9oymCnJfUukmW7MpwijEZS3j0T94hdaA4Ys5fqSsft1KjOL6LsOG9JwIlfYolE8s7j302L9WeJxT-J2IbxszyoNxn8hueCoEjXfNIcbduKVKtava8PrFiOodSOfAbs_32Pp-LQwehbXKbeiPpCV6l7g%3D%3D
• [ev_news_2d39a8db] news_headline — https://www.google.com/goto?url=CAESoAEB7keqTTcVkj5EwosYJY1Em4iC-DSEINmX1crtT_3FOCo1PIgr5MQlOo6nG1tZASaakXSkljpqnDtrmtduu2iHW5zphjttQBh_AZ8ka_GVfJv89WGdAGnxi1Yb-XgN54d7rpqwrExfFOo_RwgqGaQx1m9imGlesuiqj0_vqfIMGHgAPXyZ33nxuldj5Mla_5lmYl8alagtXbBQRdM43mX4
• [ev_news_b450d52d] news_headline — https://www.google.com/goto?url=CAESlQEB7keqTWq4fYKwWSHYt6oO71tteVh_VuXGdVXhBAoSGz8_3vdjligt039MvLtp4bgWF_RWNB8uc-liJnPXoCcIVI4l62__m49ljHJNVot3x3Z-P9P3B0CKfo786gkcKYK2iArL66Cd1UgeF-W1_9n7KHTMjdFs3CIaf6RbBoq361nniDTHFSVxR8EqJVvbNpy6SaoKrA%3D%3D
• [ev_news_b22a1bd2] news_headline — https://www.google.com/goto?url=CAES7AEB7keqTQM2m8yr7W0E2c7Uhhd0RXeXba-vGwM2KgqoxjIM2LSerlWOrHCh4rBMe7w7kC9t8c1q1T3UK1dd6Q4iemLLoA72YmLC9KdlnFg-32pF5UUppmp2J0sWOfnD1o8X7ukpKqt5FdrR7nzMoyfdEd_9J4e72YnWBchYGlFn1JyionfyxaSSExK70uImSiNGj27nK0Q2WyLC4OYZ5fkBd1nasuLRCmkQLP7FHKvsprcelJUr6IfJ56zEEdBfzsyZ3-T7UbuhtbY54n3P5uB_pR9TZgqlNYI0S3__dY_GlYDW4QZU7ZGKppL0rQ%3D%3D
• [ev_news_2febc47f] news_headline — https://www.google.com/goto?url=CAESZwHuR6pNJV-qabXnS0MW2lgVN27ihQLoFRYd_0z_s-R24lbnb2iUf-cPSMWby5glGRfaHGqLaZOhNV2aTpBPX-k488E52EbAL3G_1jpZQpEn3Zo_3iPrh5MSFhPe4U9q86m58ZcjyfM%3D
• [ev_news_462f0bad] news_headline — https://www.google.com/goto?url=CAESngEB7keqTeSHHSW0YveknbPfGuL4C3uSh-Cyufr1F5-DuE5AaYubT2m9MMWeNT6lZLJWKeQpoL4chq8lEaqD2gS8XT9k7CUzw5Y9WJtAFs4tVRjM-Cmd5b1PWrqawP4Iqu4PzqKgClIfFZLhAd6HSfo7eSLrZgMs95l7hq6d6OdAdZ06zmPaeepSU-Uvg6ZvN8dUHLoaSUCo4S-T_16vng%3D%3D
• [ev_news_e8ac672c] news_headline — https://www.google.com/goto?url=CAES_QEB7keqTTwUEZz2CDDYxE70pcUFVoL3BEQS1Cl9NMTn9mgx7zFWKCfdu6nywCU6Q3zv8dQ-X6pLS5Met7qTlXf6JfyF6vs_5tuUrloz4beUH28EEjCuZH__j2LjJlLIRyi_8Vr4nUKpGEWOb9cJEVHwf_dMy_wJLYjC6chputMHEJpY1x7dv5SKSpRWyyVr_jzaexbH8THIlR3UIHsX3zpBQ8TZTGtkuAtb5PCyyRm_ptkgGJUFKrwV87fxZa88ad2i5sdEBl0KxENeeU722OdVG3sRGe2HXyK6nLK62p0MZ3YC2N-UZc2uUlFm1NvBBGm5gQVpJM2-AgwWrGhO
• [ev_news_879c807a] news_headline — https://www.google.com/goto?url=CAESswEB7keqTaiYsSmGRDekIMVdTubbePHFD5KBSQRKV80EZWHKL3EOfqctLXCYFlYWvzNOJ8uJa76ct0zP79i7i43lM3IVrRWb5r-8vcAKD0iFyQGgMq-Nie_cYORnghHxJ9taydr2dG3lor-4XZVxovpEYNk1kgrU28I1YLDRRc4P5aQslVc-AeFNTOMwPOHKHbNYHzKF0KibvlyZm45C19xrQDvtEQDyAtujsnuocAcxOl8i5w%3D%3D
• [ev_news_4224db83] news_headline — https://www.moomoo.com/stock/GOOGL-US/earnings?chain_id=Name1K9-3FXPhg.1l6vmg0&global_content=%7B%22promote_id%22%3A13764%2C%22sub_promote_id%22%3A63%2C%22f%22%3A%22www.moomoo.com%2Fcommunity%2Fdiscussion%2Fwhy-did-you-start-trading-340262929%22%7D
• [ev_news_bfb9be44] news_headline — https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nasdaq-googl/alphabet/news/alphabet-googl-taps-bond-markets-with-25-billion-ai-funding
• [ev_news_b9ab9fd8] news_headline — https://stockinvest.us/stock/GOOGL
• [ev_news_0609e2c1] news_headline — https://www.tradingview.com/news/leverage_shares:d2d3189bd094b:0-alphabet-delivers-strong-earnings-as-google-cloud-accelerates
• [ev_news_554c23f6] news_headline — https://www.investors.com/research/best-stocks-seven-magnificent-stocks-earnings-growth
• [ev_news_43fd3dcf] news_headline — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/08/berkshire-hathaway-earnings-q2-2026.html
• [ev_fundamentals_8d81f5f0] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_629f24bf] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:AAPL
• [ev_fundamentals_d7f9d005] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_151e3cfd] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:GOOGL
• [ev_fundamentals_f493da1c] fundamentals — quant:earnings_surprises:MSFT
• [ev_fundamentals_cea5ffb0] fundamentals — quant:direction_prob:MSFT