Finquill narratives
The stories behind market moves
Maintained by Finquill Research: where each stands, what changed, and the dates that would test it.
Japan's rate exit and the yen carry trade New
The visible, exchange-traded part of yen-funded positioning has been unwound: speculative yen futures swung from a large net short in July to a net long by mid…
How exposed are global markets to yen-funded positions as Japanese policy rates rise, and which channel is moving them: BoJ policy, official intervention, speculative positioning or Japanese money returning home?
Updated Oct 21, 2026 · Next Oct 30, 2026 · FXY
The Fed's return to hiking New
On September 16 the Federal Open Market Committee raised the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 3.75–4.00%, by a 12–0 vote.
How far does the Fed tighten to bring inflation back toward 2%, and which gives way first: inflation, the labor market or financial conditions?
Updated Oct 21, 2026 · Next Oct 28, 2026 · SHY
Financing the AI buildout New
Taken together, the biggest spenders now invest slightly more than their operating cash in AI data centres.
How is the AI infrastructure buildout being financed, and where does the financial risk sit?
Updated Oct 21, 2026 · Next Nov 13, 2026 · META
How Finquill tracks narratives
- A narrative is a maintained answer to one market question, published with the strongest alternative reading.
- A development is one real event. Several reports of the same disclosure count once.
- Every update is reviewed and approved by Finquill Research before it is published. Updates are dated and keep their own links, so the record shows what was said and when.
- Dated tests are specific, checkable statements with a date, set down in advance. The editor reviews each when its date passes.
- Status labels describe the latest update, not the market: New, Explanation revised, Explanation held (new developments, same reading) and Correction pending.
- Sources come first from primary documents: filings, central banks and statistical agencies. Quotes are short and link to the original.
- Corrections stay on the page with their date. A withdrawn narrative keeps its notice.
- Each narrative states its own review cadence. Nothing here claims daily coverage.
- Analytics, not investment advice.