> Compiled by the machine desk — no human review before publication. Analytics, not advice.

**Machine desk record:** 85 claims graded, 56% held up.
# Daily Tape — 2026-09-30: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT
**Tickers:** AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT
**Valid from:** 2026-09-30T10:09:33.119780+00:00
## By the numbers
- **metric**: AAPL overnight change
- **value**: -2.66%
- **comparison**: vs MSFT -0.05% and GOOGL -0.53%
- **period**: overnight into 2026-09-30 pre-market

- Apple (AAPL) last quoted at $329.40, down 2.66% overnight, the sharpest move among AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT. [ev_quote_1143b100] [ev_quote_6dc08894] [ev_quote_6b9075c1]
- Microsoft (MSFT) last quoted at $508.96, down 0.05% overnight. [ev_quote_6dc08894]
- Alphabet (GOOGL) last quoted at $340.92, down 0.53% overnight. [ev_quote_6b9075c1]
- AAPL's overnight decline of 2.66% was more than five times GOOGL's 0.53% drop and far larger than MSFT's 0.05% dip. [ev_quote_1143b100] [ev_quote_6dc08894] [ev_quote_6b9075c1]

## Thesis
- **statement**: Standing theses stay neutral on AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT: Street support is one-sided on MSFT and GOOGL, more two-sided on AAPL, and overnight tape does not reset the wait-for-earnings frame.
- **frame**: Neutral / hold-the-line into late-October prints — constructive Street, no directional override.
- **why_now**: No company-specific catalysts overnight versus the standing Daily Tape series; AAPL’s -2.66% move is the only tape outlier (GOOGL -0.53%, MSFT -0.05%), with MSFT and GOOGL reporting 2026-10-27 and AAPL on 2026-10-29.

- As of the 2026-09-01 snapshot, AAPL’s Street mix is 22 buy, 15 hold, and 3 sell — the most two-sided of the three names. [ev_rec_45c61305]
- As of the 2026-09-01 snapshot, MSFT carries 41 buys, 5 holds, and 0 sells. [ev_rec_a509df21]
- As of the 2026-09-01 snapshot, GOOGL carries 43 buys, 7 holds, and 0 sells. [ev_rec_49d9312d]
- AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT each currently register a convergence_signal score of 1. [ev_conv_4c40fd11] [ev_conv_702a743f] [ev_conv_724cc6c9]
- MSFT’s next scheduled earnings date is 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_79538eca]
- GOOGL’s next scheduled earnings date is 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_4b6dd666]
- AAPL’s next scheduled earnings date is 2026-10-29. [ev_earn_bc35183b]

## What to watch
- **trigger**: MSFT and GOOGL report 2026-10-27; AAPL reports 2026-10-29
- **metric**: EPS versus consensus
- **timeframe**: next 4 weeks

- Microsoft reports earnings on 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_79538eca]
- Alphabet reports earnings on 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_4b6dd666]
- Apple reports earnings on 2026-10-29. [ev_earn_bc35183b]
- Microsoft will beat consensus EPS at its 2026-10-27 earnings report. [ev_earn_79538eca] [ev_rec_a509df21]
- Alphabet will beat consensus EPS at its 2026-10-27 earnings report. [ev_earn_4b6dd666] [ev_rec_49d9312d]
- Apple will beat consensus EPS at its 2026-10-29 earnings report. [ev_earn_bc35183b] [ev_rec_45c61305]

## By the numbers
- **metric**: calibrated_p_up_5d
- **value**: 0.427572 (AAPL), 0.637204 (GOOGL), 0.374651 (MSFT)
- **comparison**: GOOGL > AAPL > MSFT
- **period**: 5-day forward

- AAPL has delivered mixed EPS surprises over the past four quarters, with a +1.43% beat in Dec 2025 followed by a -0.89% miss in Jun 2026, indicating inconsistent earnings execution relative to consensus. [ev_fundamentals_d684ae05]
- GOOGL has missed EPS estimates in two of the last three quarters (Jun 2026: -4.6%, Mar 2026: -3.2%), despite a large +23.5% beat in Sep 2025, suggesting recent deterioration in earnings predictability. [ev_fundamentals_3825718c]
- MSFT has beaten EPS estimates in all four most recent quarters, with the largest beat of +9.5% in Jun 2026, demonstrating consistent upside execution. [ev_fundamentals_2c0417f1]
- GOOGL's calibrated 5-day up probability of 0.637 is 49% higher than MSFT's 0.375, despite MSFT's superior recent earnings track record, suggesting the model is pricing in mean reversion or other factors beyond recent surprise history. [ev_fundamentals_bd72a052] [ev_fundamentals_7579bd87]
- AAPL's calibrated 5-day up probability of 0.428 sits between the base rate of 0.655 and the model-adjusted estimate, indicating the model sees below-baseline near-term upside momentum. [ev_fundamentals_00a031f0]

## Sources

- [ev_conv_724cc6c9] convergence_signal — `supabase:watchlist_convergence:MSFT`
- [ev_conv_4c40fd11] convergence_signal — `supabase:watchlist_convergence:AAPL`
- [ev_conv_702a743f] convergence_signal — `supabase:watchlist_convergence:GOOGL`
- [ev_quote_6dc08894] market_quote — `market data:quote:MSFT`
- [ev_quote_1143b100] market_quote — `market data:quote:AAPL`
- [ev_quote_6b9075c1] market_quote — `market data:quote:GOOGL`
- [ev_cov_ec869624] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:d4559174-6bee-4f56-826a-24cf293449e1`
- [ev_cov_20939c38] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:44389b9b-f4f3-43cc-af84-6c3a05b0e5a5`
- [ev_cov_d17a4e4c] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:30ac8e5b-ccd7-4aae-8847-ef049cb55dca`
- [ev_cov_802a4423] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:137bc5cf-7a5a-4cf1-97c9-2cb52d3f67bb`
- [ev_cov_0332405c] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:2e8a93d6-a99c-48d1-a7cb-fe8daaa35c1c`
- [ev_cov_794546c8] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:36dd267a-85ad-43fb-a28b-6de90f6e589d`
- [ev_cov_743db7e7] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:a3a10644-e240-4d73-9b64-07e7eb2710d8`
- [ev_cov_4648476f] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:c3ec2638-c9f2-41a0-9bdc-d9e9995b3c7a`
- [ev_cov_6736e00b] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:29d8204e-4e7e-44b7-ba3d-25b8ed5977fd`
- [ev_cov_e5930fe6] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:dd315b71-4272-42b3-8747-1cc0ee474bcb`
- [ev_cov_34a92959] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:53c065c0-a89f-4fbc-9c75-6000961bee50`
- [ev_cov_bacad3f9] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:96d9775b-6e6d-4bfa-bff5-2cff1d63bd7a`
- [ev_cov_e609e2f5] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:427bb074-9111-422f-aab1-9a6405977c73`
- [ev_cov_71b68569] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:036bce5b-ecbd-4b7a-b403-dfb4079be022`
- [ev_cov_94690dbd] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:799e87fc-ad00-474d-9758-a2dc3c2cf6ae`
- [ev_cov_eb9e4701] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:98823963-9bbb-4690-aed5-598f1da75ba5`
- [ev_cov_f6ffc636] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:cbf8609d-b1fc-416c-adee-60a2e2b9c2b6`
- [ev_cov_b3a7ade2] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:9cffb451-c51c-484b-9d7b-3370a881c09a`
- [ev_cov_5a3e54d7] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:0b64e48a-73f0-4d6f-bebf-78bd777ca834`
- [ev_cov_95f75d32] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:9c826064-2755-4b18-809e-1f8dbf092055`
- [ev_cov_605220e9] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:1b057e19-37df-4344-a691-df9c4b12366c`
- [ev_cov_636c0dcd] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:6f45445c-7dd9-43f7-8303-b7b76a50d90a`
- [ev_cov_5cd043a3] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:2ff1bbd8-e68b-4192-b59b-45f5270fc031`
- [ev_cov_610dc3fc] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:f80ac6c0-1bf6-4210-a9c0-3c224bf9bbc3`
- [ev_cov_c00b407f] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:978d2b1a-b826-4fe1-bd52-1afe646661e2`
- [ev_cov_fd3d70b9] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:3ecb0fe2-51f3-4472-b3db-aa871b4a2e5b`
- [ev_cov_375439b9] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:cc6cb418-2587-4513-96ad-7242b5c8bb85`
- [ev_cov_b67b92c1] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:0135497a-8448-4b0a-8c55-47e013c16607`
- [ev_cov_d390a8cc] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:2fbb9b6f-6d06-482b-a27f-8f656d63ecb2`
- [ev_cov_8fa3f668] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:71bbcc97-a7c4-476f-8118-097a511abb76`
- [ev_cov_e0e58e15] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:da91a3bf-68fe-4a22-869a-494cb6bfdc37`
- [ev_cov_061bf672] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:28205256-eb7f-409e-9967-afeaf145225b`
- [ev_cov_b12f30d8] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:ea818bf7-d7b6-4a62-a521-4082f94e08bb`
- [ev_cov_8063ac98] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:70d914a5-b74d-4ffb-87db-02779805aac8`
- [ev_cov_4e893852] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:114fcb90-ced3-4f1c-bd29-59fbc61733d2`
- [ev_cov_cc63cf5a] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:0dea4c6e-f3a0-44c0-a99f-0257ecd9ac28`
- [ev_cov_bbfa9754] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:8da79f89-fc92-47b6-b461-54504b3b9959`
- [ev_cov_05b370c6] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:ab6010fa-1077-4f25-ab7b-61cd5bcfa251`
- [ev_cov_b20c213c] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:aec66cd1-8415-4fcb-bc88-443cd97baf50`
- [ev_cov_550c1dd9] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:aaca6340-5b8f-469c-a705-180b5eaaeed4`
- [ev_cov_851c35c4] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:4933044b-3f2d-4659-ace1-093987748e66`
- [ev_cov_79f94fef] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:e9792545-5aa8-41bd-840b-da72e4ea0523`
- [ev_cov_babe8b83] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:7ff9ef16-ebcb-4ecd-bc6f-c0b90f19c39f`
- [ev_cov_5225eb7a] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:0e4f5a74-b6fc-4458-9fdc-a5fc0e61c515`
- [ev_cov_2ed7b57e] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:194985d4-5698-4529-a8b5-d77eb8962804`
- [ev_cov_1a15c885] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:7d859949-c025-4d08-9194-c0791a95293a`
- [ev_cov_96fbcbff] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:3b293610-9791-4798-a878-681cd86c1177`
- [ev_cov_e443aa84] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:4bbaf75c-6654-438c-8970-9bd835dd3036`
- [ev_cov_6232f7f5] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:75022657-1f17-41db-8512-887d99a3e7a0`
- [ev_cov_a4534c7f] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:9b58ec54-d5b0-4da4-b0e0-bbafa8fd19ae`
- [ev_cov_60e0c2ab] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:fc23c39c-1d62-499c-9229-cda1be1b5415`
- [ev_cov_687a3209] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:c242f61f-acaa-43b6-8658-c9e07d615da4`
- [ev_profile_1ab008c3] company_profile — `market data:profile:MSFT`
- [ev_rec_a509df21] analyst_recommendation — `market data:recommendation:MSFT`
- [ev_profile_cd118d46] company_profile — `market data:profile:AAPL`
- [ev_rec_45c61305] analyst_recommendation — `market data:recommendation:AAPL`
- [ev_profile_6c459300] company_profile — `market data:profile:GOOGL`
- [ev_rec_49d9312d] analyst_recommendation — `market data:recommendation:GOOGL`
- [ev_earn_79538eca] earnings_date — `market data:earnings:MSFT`
- [ev_earn_bc35183b] earnings_date — `market data:earnings:AAPL`
- [ev_earn_4b6dd666] earnings_date — `market data:earnings:GOOGL`
- [ev_news_5fcfbf18] news_headline — [https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:eefea4d9b094b:0-quantum-selloff-should-investors-consider-these-3-hyperscalers](https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:eefea4d9b094b:0-quantum-selloff-should-investors-consider-these-3-hyperscalers)
- [ev_news_2b6f0857] news_headline — [https://www.chartmill.com/stock/quote/MSFT/news](https://www.chartmill.com/stock/quote/MSFT/news)
- [ev_news_0a82000c] news_headline — [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4949206-microsoft-buy-this-early-recovery](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4949206-microsoft-buy-this-early-recovery)
- [ev_news_b43977eb] news_headline — [https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/29/microsoft-is-edging-into-overvalued-territory-now](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/29/microsoft-is-edging-into-overvalued-territory-now)
- [ev_news_59d99dfc] news_headline — [https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/microsoft-stock-big-test-delivering-125937736.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/microsoft-stock-big-test-delivering-125937736.html)
- [ev_news_07527dc5] news_headline — [https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/software/nasdaq-msft/microsoft/news/microsoft-and-2-other-quality-stocks-to-own](https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/software/nasdaq-msft/microsoft/news/microsoft-and-2-other-quality-stocks-to-own)
- [ev_news_c9ea5b79] news_headline — [https://www.chartmill.com/news/AMGN/Chartmill-55364-Fridays-session-top-gainers-and-losers-in-the-dow-jones-index](https://www.chartmill.com/news/AMGN/Chartmill-55364-Fridays-session-top-gainers-and-losers-in-the-dow-jones-index)
- [ev_news_37d4c479] news_headline — [https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/price-apple-nasdaq-aapl-stock-price-up-15-time-to-buy-2026-09-25](https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/price-apple-nasdaq-aapl-stock-price-up-15-time-to-buy-2026-09-25)
- [ev_news_4cb93d8b] news_headline — [https://www.cnn.com/markets/stocks/AAPL](https://www.cnn.com/markets/stocks/AAPL)
- [ev_news_16253e86] news_headline — [https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/tech/nasdaq-aapl/apple/news/apple-aapl-stock-could-be-overvalued-on-fresh-health-app-hop/amp](https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/tech/nasdaq-aapl/apple/news/apple-aapl-stock-could-be-overvalued-on-fresh-health-app-hop/amp)
- [ev_news_1ce22e97] news_headline — [https://www.chartmill.com/news/AAPL/Chartmill-55345-Apple-NASDAQAAPL-Stands-Out-as-a-Quality-Investing-Candidate-Despite-Premium-Valuation](https://www.chartmill.com/news/AAPL/Chartmill-55345-Apple-NASDAQAAPL-Stands-Out-as-a-Quality-Investing-Candidate-Despite-Premium-Valuation)
- [ev_news_98068867] news_headline — [https://www.tikr.com/blog/apple-stock-is-up-34-over-the-past-year-can-the-iphone-18-keep-the-rally-going](https://www.tikr.com/blog/apple-stock-is-up-34-over-the-past-year-can-the-iphone-18-keep-the-rally-going)
- [ev_news_620a14bd] news_headline — [https://www.trefis.com/stock/aapl/articles/616974/what-will-decide-apple-stock-over-the-next-six-months/2026-09-29](https://www.trefis.com/stock/aapl/articles/616974/what-will-decide-apple-stock-over-the-next-six-months/2026-09-29)
- [ev_news_0f35139b] news_headline — [https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:6d4f8be7b094b:0-alphabet-vs-apple-which-consumer-ai-tech-stock-has-an-edge-now](https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:6d4f8be7b094b:0-alphabet-vs-apple-which-consumer-ai-tech-stock-has-an-edge-now)
- [ev_news_b0d9029c] news_headline — [https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/why-alphabet-googl-stock-down-212205277.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/why-alphabet-googl-stock-down-212205277.html)
- [ev_news_6af40ec4] news_headline — [https://www.benzinga.com/quote/GOOGL](https://www.benzinga.com/quote/GOOGL)
- [ev_news_3b4104ba] news_headline — [https://tech-insider.org/meta-vs-google-stock-2026](https://tech-insider.org/meta-vs-google-stock-2026)
- [ev_news_046e9339] news_headline — [https://www.tikr.com/blog/alphabet-stock-dips-after-a-e403-million-fine-why-google-cloud-still-drives-the-story](https://www.tikr.com/blog/alphabet-stock-dips-after-a-e403-million-fine-why-google-cloud-still-drives-the-story)
- [ev_news_eb31bf9e] news_headline — [https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nasdaq-googl/alphabet/news/alphabet-googl-stock-may-trade-at-a-discount-despite-privacy](https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nasdaq-googl/alphabet/news/alphabet-googl-stock-may-trade-at-a-discount-despite-privacy)
- [ev_news_5caf1405] news_headline — [https://es.tradingview.com/news/zacks:c8e2fdefe094b:0-what-will-the-q3-earnings-season-show](https://es.tradingview.com/news/zacks:c8e2fdefe094b:0-what-will-the-q3-earnings-season-show)
- [ev_news_89a37349] news_headline — [https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/stocks/17494/next-week-earnings-calendar-stocks](https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/stocks/17494/next-week-earnings-calendar-stocks)
- [ev_news_75f0e7d6] news_headline — [https://www.investors.com/news/technology/micron-technology-mu-stock-fiscal-q4-earnings-preview](https://www.investors.com/news/technology/micron-technology-mu-stock-fiscal-q4-earnings-preview)
- [ev_fundamentals_d684ae05] fundamentals — `quant:earnings_surprises:AAPL`
- [ev_fundamentals_00a031f0] fundamentals — `quant:direction_prob:AAPL`
- [ev_fundamentals_3825718c] fundamentals — `quant:earnings_surprises:GOOGL`
- [ev_fundamentals_bd72a052] fundamentals — `quant:direction_prob:GOOGL`
- [ev_fundamentals_2c0417f1] fundamentals — `quant:earnings_surprises:MSFT`
- [ev_fundamentals_7579bd87] fundamentals — `quant:direction_prob:MSFT`