> Compiled by the machine desk — no human review before publication. Analytics, not advice.

**Machine desk record:** 79 claims graded, 58% held up.
# Daily Tape — 2026-09-25: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT
**Tickers:** AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT
**Valid from:** 2026-09-25T10:07:42.690259+00:00
## Thesis
- **statement**: Standing-neutral on AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT: overnight tape was modest (AAPL −0.33% to $335.92, MSFT −0.53% to $497.93, GOOGL +1.34% to $342.36) with no catalyst to change the view ahead of late-October earnings.
- **frame**: Quiet-period mega-cap tape — hold the line until the next print
- **why_now**: Pre-market 25 Sep 2026: no overnight reset, Street still clustered bullish on MSFT (41 buy / 5 hold / 0 sell) and GOOGL (43 / 7 / 0) while AAPL is more mixed (22 / 15 / 3), and the next inflection is the 27–28 Oct prints.

- AAPL last traded at $335.92, down 0.33 percent overnight. [ev_quote_cb267fb7]
- MSFT last traded at $497.93, down 0.53 percent overnight. [ev_quote_20ab194e]
- GOOGL last traded at $342.36, up 1.34 percent overnight, the only gainer of the three names. [ev_quote_fb4556dd]
- Street recommendations for AAPL as of 1 Sep 2026 stood at 22 buy, 15 hold, and 3 sell. [ev_rec_1728d88c]
- Street recommendations for MSFT as of 1 Sep 2026 stood at 41 buy, 5 hold, and 0 sell. [ev_rec_de304fe5]
- Street recommendations for GOOGL as of 1 Sep 2026 stood at 43 buy, 7 hold, and 0 sell. [ev_rec_a8963c1c]
- MSFT is scheduled to report earnings on 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_95db1030]
- AAPL is scheduled to report earnings on 2026-10-28. [ev_earn_c54f6b86]

## By the numbers
- **metric**: Analyst recommendation mix (buy/hold/sell)
- **value**: MSFT 41/5/0; GOOGL 43/7/0; AAPL 22/15/3
- **comparison**: MSFT 89% buy and GOOGL 86% buy versus AAPL 55% buy; MSFT and GOOGL carry zero sells
- **period**: as of 2026-09-01

- As of 2026-09-01, Microsoft had 41 buy, 5 hold, and 0 sell analyst recommendations. [ev_rec_de304fe5]
- As of 2026-09-01, Alphabet had 43 buy, 7 hold, and 0 sell analyst recommendations. [ev_rec_a8963c1c]
- As of 2026-09-01, Apple had 22 buy, 15 hold, and 3 sell analyst recommendations. [ev_rec_1728d88c]
- Apple's 55% buy share (22 of 40 ratings) is well below Microsoft's 89% (41 of 46) and Alphabet's 86% (43 of 50) as of 2026-09-01. [ev_rec_1728d88c] [ev_rec_de304fe5] [ev_rec_a8963c1c]

## What to watch
- **trigger**: MSFT and GOOGL earnings on Oct 27; AAPL on Oct 28
- **metric**: EPS vs consensus
- **timeframe**: 2026-10-27 to 2026-10-28

- Microsoft is scheduled to report fiscal first-quarter earnings on 2026-10-27, the next material checkpoint for MSFT. [ev_earn_95db1030]
- Alphabet is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings on 2026-10-27, the next material checkpoint for GOOGL. [ev_earn_83f0c0d0]
- Apple is scheduled to report fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on 2026-10-28, the next material checkpoint for AAPL. [ev_earn_c54f6b86]
- Microsoft will beat consensus EPS at its 2026-10-27 print. [ev_earn_95db1030] [ev_rec_de304fe5]
- Alphabet will beat consensus EPS at its 2026-10-27 print. [ev_earn_83f0c0d0] [ev_rec_a8963c1c]
- Apple will beat consensus EPS at its 2026-10-28 print. [ev_earn_c54f6b86] [ev_rec_1728d88c]

## By the numbers
- **metric**: calibrated_p_up_5d
- **value**: 0.335 to 0.596
- **comparison**: wide dispersion across mega-cap tech
- **period**: 5-day forward

- MSFT has delivered positive EPS surprises in all four most recent quarters (Q3 2025 through Q2 2026), with an average surprise of +0.256 per share, suggesting a pattern of earnings outperformance. [ev_fundamentals_73f4ec63]
- AAPL's calibrated 5-day up probability of 0.374 is below the base rate of 0.673, indicating the model assigns below-historical-average odds to a near-term price rise despite the base rate favoring upside. [ev_fundamentals_27bb34fb]
- GOOGL has missed EPS estimates in two of the last three quarters (Q1 and Q2 2026), with the most recent miss of -0.1298 in Q2 2026, despite a strong beat of +0.7046 in Q3 2025. [ev_fundamentals_b1952d98]
- MSFT's calibrated 5-day up probability of 0.335 is substantially below its base rate of 0.540, suggesting current conditions assign materially lower odds to a 5-day price rise than historical frequency would predict. [ev_fundamentals_aa047574]
- GOOGL's calibrated 5-day up probability of 0.596 exceeds its base rate of 0.496, indicating current conditions favor upside relative to historical frequency. [ev_fundamentals_b66b9dd0]

## Sources

- [ev_quote_cb267fb7] market_quote — `market data:quote:AAPL`
- [ev_quote_20ab194e] market_quote — `market data:quote:MSFT`
- [ev_quote_fb4556dd] market_quote — `market data:quote:GOOGL`
- [ev_conv_9a14d17b] convergence_signal — `supabase:watchlist_convergence:MSFT`
- [ev_conv_aa86272f] convergence_signal — `supabase:watchlist_convergence:AAPL`
- [ev_conv_19bafd89] convergence_signal — `supabase:watchlist_convergence:GOOGL`
- [ev_profile_ed28358c] company_profile — `market data:profile:AAPL`
- [ev_rec_1728d88c] analyst_recommendation — `market data:recommendation:AAPL`
- [ev_profile_982018fe] company_profile — `market data:profile:MSFT`
- [ev_rec_de304fe5] analyst_recommendation — `market data:recommendation:MSFT`
- [ev_cov_76aa42a0] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:2e8a93d6-a99c-48d1-a7cb-fe8daaa35c1c`
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- [ev_cov_e8f9ce98] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:29d8204e-4e7e-44b7-ba3d-25b8ed5977fd`
- [ev_cov_86d644fd] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:dd315b71-4272-42b3-8747-1cc0ee474bcb`
- [ev_cov_43525100] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:53c065c0-a89f-4fbc-9c75-6000961bee50`
- [ev_cov_929597bd] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:96d9775b-6e6d-4bfa-bff5-2cff1d63bd7a`
- [ev_cov_0614d2f9] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:427bb074-9111-422f-aab1-9a6405977c73`
- [ev_cov_fbdd3639] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:036bce5b-ecbd-4b7a-b403-dfb4079be022`
- [ev_cov_0679cbdd] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:799e87fc-ad00-474d-9758-a2dc3c2cf6ae`
- [ev_cov_cd2014e7] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:98823963-9bbb-4690-aed5-598f1da75ba5`
- [ev_cov_f73db29f] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:cbf8609d-b1fc-416c-adee-60a2e2b9c2b6`
- [ev_cov_8415a210] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:9cffb451-c51c-484b-9d7b-3370a881c09a`
- [ev_cov_b01115a0] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:0b64e48a-73f0-4d6f-bebf-78bd777ca834`
- [ev_cov_8e29b8e2] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:9c826064-2755-4b18-809e-1f8dbf092055`
- [ev_cov_ed9433a0] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:1b057e19-37df-4344-a691-df9c4b12366c`
- [ev_cov_f3347318] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:6f45445c-7dd9-43f7-8303-b7b76a50d90a`
- [ev_cov_14497f38] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:2ff1bbd8-e68b-4192-b59b-45f5270fc031`
- [ev_cov_632a78b2] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:f80ac6c0-1bf6-4210-a9c0-3c224bf9bbc3`
- [ev_cov_01b8cafa] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:978d2b1a-b826-4fe1-bd52-1afe646661e2`
- [ev_cov_9042ed6f] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:3ecb0fe2-51f3-4472-b3db-aa871b4a2e5b`
- [ev_cov_463bd1fa] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:cc6cb418-2587-4513-96ad-7242b5c8bb85`
- [ev_cov_f68d2885] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:0135497a-8448-4b0a-8c55-47e013c16607`
- [ev_cov_46826046] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:2fbb9b6f-6d06-482b-a27f-8f656d63ecb2`
- [ev_cov_0d22849e] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:71bbcc97-a7c4-476f-8118-097a511abb76`
- [ev_cov_493b5ab1] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:da91a3bf-68fe-4a22-869a-494cb6bfdc37`
- [ev_cov_71ab4356] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:28205256-eb7f-409e-9967-afeaf145225b`
- [ev_cov_1c8fa2d4] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:ea818bf7-d7b6-4a62-a521-4082f94e08bb`
- [ev_cov_e0293f71] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:70d914a5-b74d-4ffb-87db-02779805aac8`
- [ev_cov_d3b325f4] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:114fcb90-ced3-4f1c-bd29-59fbc61733d2`
- [ev_cov_c437ca93] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:0dea4c6e-f3a0-44c0-a99f-0257ecd9ac28`
- [ev_cov_5f9c69b4] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:8da79f89-fc92-47b6-b461-54504b3b9959`
- [ev_cov_daf0cd58] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:ab6010fa-1077-4f25-ab7b-61cd5bcfa251`
- [ev_cov_21e9bd90] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:aec66cd1-8415-4fcb-bc88-443cd97baf50`
- [ev_cov_f0a00bf1] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:aaca6340-5b8f-469c-a705-180b5eaaeed4`
- [ev_cov_500830f6] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:4933044b-3f2d-4659-ace1-093987748e66`
- [ev_cov_cd5a60db] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:e9792545-5aa8-41bd-840b-da72e4ea0523`
- [ev_cov_06b60899] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:7ff9ef16-ebcb-4ecd-bc6f-c0b90f19c39f`
- [ev_cov_9fe4f578] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:0e4f5a74-b6fc-4458-9fdc-a5fc0e61c515`
- [ev_cov_1e49c364] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:194985d4-5698-4529-a8b5-d77eb8962804`
- [ev_cov_c83e4eac] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:7d859949-c025-4d08-9194-c0791a95293a`
- [ev_cov_fa617245] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:3b293610-9791-4798-a878-681cd86c1177`
- [ev_cov_196c3788] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:4bbaf75c-6654-438c-8970-9bd835dd3036`
- [ev_cov_8b1705b9] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:75022657-1f17-41db-8512-887d99a3e7a0`
- [ev_cov_e031f7d0] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:9b58ec54-d5b0-4da4-b0e0-bbafa8fd19ae`
- [ev_cov_22ce71a3] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:fc23c39c-1d62-499c-9229-cda1be1b5415`
- [ev_cov_cdc82179] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:c242f61f-acaa-43b6-8658-c9e07d615da4`
- [ev_profile_91089f2c] company_profile — `market data:profile:GOOGL`
- [ev_rec_a8963c1c] analyst_recommendation — `market data:recommendation:GOOGL`
- [ev_earn_c54f6b86] earnings_date — `market data:earnings:AAPL`
- [ev_earn_95db1030] earnings_date — `market data:earnings:MSFT`
- [ev_earn_83f0c0d0] earnings_date — `market data:earnings:GOOGL`
- [ev_news_d8d564f9] news_headline — [https://www.tradingview.com/news/stocktwits:4539a806b094b:0-msft-stock-redburn-raises-target-to-440-as-ai-safety-spending-debate-continues](https://www.tradingview.com/news/stocktwits:4539a806b094b:0-msft-stock-redburn-raises-target-to-440-as-ai-safety-spending-debate-continues)
- [ev_news_366d55cf] news_headline — [https://www.chartmill.com/stock/quote/MSFT/news](https://www.chartmill.com/stock/quote/MSFT/news)
- [ev_news_93130374] news_headline — [https://www.barchart.com/story/news/4740306/dear-microsoft-stock-fans-mark-your-calendars-for-september-24](https://www.barchart.com/story/news/4740306/dear-microsoft-stock-fans-mark-your-calendars-for-september-24)
- [ev_news_5fb74f38] news_headline — [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4949206-microsoft-buy-this-early-recovery](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4949206-microsoft-buy-this-early-recovery)
- [ev_news_e31f0d83] news_headline — [https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/23/microsoft-cant-hold-500-while-the-nasdaq-hits-a-record-whats-going-on?tpid=1665908&tv=link&tc=in_content](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/23/microsoft-cant-hold-500-while-the-nasdaq-hits-a-record-whats-going-on?tpid=1665908&tv=link&tc=in_content)
- [ev_news_8827f774] news_headline — [https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/why-alphabet-googl-stock-down-212205277.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/why-alphabet-googl-stock-down-212205277.html)
- [ev_news_3fb8c626] news_headline — [https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/22/a-powerful-voice-just-reaffirmed-my-confidence-in-my-non-stop-alphabet-accumulation](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/22/a-powerful-voice-just-reaffirmed-my-confidence-in-my-non-stop-alphabet-accumulation)
- [ev_news_1accdf64] news_headline — [https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/24/alphabet-drops-below-350-buying-opportunity-or-the-start-of-something-worse](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/24/alphabet-drops-below-350-buying-opportunity-or-the-start-of-something-worse)
- [ev_news_56f01e16] news_headline — [https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:7983b6fee094b:0-zacks-earnings-trends-highlights-micron-nvidia-and-alphabet](https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:7983b6fee094b:0-zacks-earnings-trends-highlights-micron-nvidia-and-alphabet)
- [ev_news_5677b4c0] news_headline — [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4949414-alphabet-the-gemini-cloud-divergence-hides-a-1-trillion-opportunity](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4949414-alphabet-the-gemini-cloud-divergence-hides-a-1-trillion-opportunity)
- [ev_news_16342527] news_headline — [https://stockstory.org/us/stocks/nasdaq/sfix/news/earnings/earnings-to-watch-stitch-fix-sfix-reports-q2-results-tomorrow](https://stockstory.org/us/stocks/nasdaq/sfix/news/earnings/earnings-to-watch-stitch-fix-sfix-reports-q2-results-tomorrow)
- [ev_news_ee23f22b] news_headline — [https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/tech/nasdaq-aapl/apple/news/apple-aapl-stock-could-look-31-overvalued-on-new-health-devi](https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/tech/nasdaq-aapl/apple/news/apple-aapl-stock-could-look-31-overvalued-on-new-health-devi)
- [ev_news_970805e7] news_headline — [https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/21/at-336-apple-is-expensive-or-is-it](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/21/at-336-apple-is-expensive-or-is-it)
- [ev_news_289d2b4c] news_headline — [https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/apple-aapl-stock-could-32-051441267.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/apple-aapl-stock-could-32-051441267.html)
- [ev_news_0d86f1c1] news_headline — [https://www.tradingview.com/news/stocktwits:79f4127aa094b:0-why-did-aapl-okta-amd-stocks-jump-to-52-week-highs-today](https://www.tradingview.com/news/stocktwits:79f4127aa094b:0-why-did-aapl-okta-amd-stocks-jump-to-52-week-highs-today)
- [ev_news_e66dc435] news_headline — [https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/09/20/should-you-buy-micron-stock-before-next-earnings](https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/09/20/should-you-buy-micron-stock-before-next-earnings)
- [ev_news_22bde0b3] news_headline — [https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-sp500-nasdaq-oil-prices-apple-amd-micron-sandisk](https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-sp500-nasdaq-oil-prices-apple-amd-micron-sandisk)
- [ev_news_da2cd145] news_headline — [https://intellectia.ai/stock/HOST/news](https://intellectia.ai/stock/HOST/news)
- [ev_fundamentals_ab3e253e] fundamentals — `quant:earnings_surprises:AAPL`
- [ev_fundamentals_27bb34fb] fundamentals — `quant:direction_prob:AAPL`
- [ev_fundamentals_b1952d98] fundamentals — `quant:earnings_surprises:GOOGL`
- [ev_fundamentals_b66b9dd0] fundamentals — `quant:direction_prob:GOOGL`
- [ev_fundamentals_73f4ec63] fundamentals — `quant:earnings_surprises:MSFT`
- [ev_fundamentals_aa047574] fundamentals — `quant:direction_prob:MSFT`