> Compiled by the machine desk — no human review before publication. Analytics, not advice.

**Machine desk record:** 62 claims graded, 61% held up.
# Daily Tape — 2026-09-14: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT
**Tickers:** AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT
**Valid from:** 2026-09-14T10:10:50.265516+00:00
## Thesis
- **statement**: Neutral on AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT: a quietly green overnight tape and no fresh catalysts leave the standing hold unchanged.
- **frame**: Standing-neutral mega-cap tech trio
- **why_now**: Pre-market is a continuation session — AAPL +1.75% to $332.27, GOOGL +1.77% to $338.50, MSFT +0.65% to $495.63 — with unchanged Street books and no material overnight news.

- Apple last traded at $332.27, up 1.75%. [ev_quote_d0f5e4ce]
- Alphabet last traded at $338.50, up 1.77%. [ev_quote_106608ef]
- Microsoft last traded at $495.63, up 0.65%. [ev_quote_5795acdc]
- Street consensus on Microsoft as of 2026-09-01 is 41 buy, 5 hold, and 0 sell ratings. [ev_rec_e5ece467]
- Street consensus on Alphabet as of 2026-09-01 is 43 buy, 7 hold, and 0 sell ratings. [ev_rec_92550d6e]
- Street consensus on Apple as of 2026-09-01 is 22 buy, 15 hold, and 3 sell ratings, a more split book than GOOGL or MSFT. [ev_rec_232758df]
- Convergence signals are present on AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT. [ev_conv_b117e0ab] [ev_conv_9b0e8fe5] [ev_conv_6d3de894]
- This desk published a Daily Tape on AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT as recently as 2026-09-11, continuing a multi-week coverage run on the same trio. [ev_cov_1557222c] [ev_cov_8fa3b978]

## By the numbers
- **metric**: Overnight last-sale change
- **value**: AAPL +1.75% to $332.27; GOOGL +1.77% to $338.50; MSFT +0.65% to $495.63
- **comparison**: All three names bid higher with Street still net-buy (MSFT 41/46, GOOGL 43/50, AAPL 22/40)
- **period**: Last-sale tape as of 2026-09-14; analyst counts as of 2026-09-01

- AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT all printed positive last-sale changes on the latest tape, at +1.75%, +1.77%, and +0.65% respectively. [ev_quote_d0f5e4ce] [ev_quote_106608ef] [ev_quote_5795acdc]
- Apple last quoted at $332.27, up 1.75%. [ev_quote_d0f5e4ce]
- Alphabet last quoted at $338.50, up 1.77%. [ev_quote_106608ef]
- Microsoft last quoted at $495.63, up 0.65%. [ev_quote_5795acdc]
- As of 2026-09-01, Microsoft carried 41 buy, 5 hold, and 0 sell ratings among 46 analysts. [ev_rec_e5ece467]
- As of 2026-09-01, Alphabet carried 43 buy, 7 hold, and 0 sell ratings among 50 analysts. [ev_rec_92550d6e]
- As of 2026-09-01, Apple carried 22 buy, 15 hold, and 3 sell ratings among 40 analysts, the most mixed Street split of the three names. [ev_rec_232758df] [ev_rec_e5ece467] [ev_rec_92550d6e]

## Risks
- **risk**: A late-October earnings miss on growth or AI monetization triggers valuation compression across a crowded AAPL/GOOGL/MSFT tape, with GOOGL also exposed to a Meta-style regulatory fine.
- **likelihood** (medium): The tape is quiet, but MSFT (41 buy/0 sell) and GOOGL (43 buy/0 sell) are one-sided into the 27 Oct prints, AAPL already has an above-fair-value note plus 3 sells, and GOOGL's AI-ad transition plus the Meta $18B analog remain unresolved.
- **impact** (high): These are index-heavy, high-multiple mega-caps; a miss from GOOGL or MSFT — names with no sell-side cushion — would reprice the group and the standing-neutral case together.
- **mitigant**: Zero-sell Street books on MSFT and GOOGL, overnight bids of +1.75% (AAPL), +1.77% (GOOGL) and +0.65% (MSFT), and an 11 Sep note arguing GOOGL is 32% undervalued on Berkshire's AI bet.

- As of 2026-09-01, Microsoft's Street book was 41 buy / 5 hold / 0 sell, leaving almost no sell-side cushion if the 27 October print disappoints. [ev_rec_e5ece467] [ev_earn_92212970]
- As of 2026-09-01, Alphabet's Street book was 43 buy / 7 hold / 0 sell, a crowded long exposed to any miss on AI-ad monetization. [ev_rec_92550d6e] [ev_cov_0084d5f8]
- Apple's Street is already two-sided at 22 buy / 15 hold / 3 sell as of 2026-09-01, and a 10 Sep 2026 note argued the stock looks above fair value after a strong run. [ev_rec_232758df] [ev_news_84996a47]
- AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT all report earnings on 27–28 October 2026, a clustered checkpoint where a growth or AI-monetization miss could reprice the group together. [ev_earn_92212970] [ev_earn_1a6934ff] [ev_earn_47d7fdf5]
- Meta's $18 billion settlement, covered on 2026-09-07, is a live regulatory analog that could reprice GOOGL if a similar antitrust or privacy fine lands on Alphabet. [ev_cov_634a2938]
- Alphabet will miss consensus EPS at its 27 October 2026 earnings report. [ev_earn_47d7fdf5] [ev_cov_0084d5f8] [ev_rec_92550d6e]
- AAPL will fall at least 8% over the next 30 days as the post-run, above-fair-value bid unwinds. [ev_quote_d0f5e4ce] [ev_news_84996a47] [ev_rec_232758df]

## What to watch
- **trigger**: October earnings cluster: MSFT and GOOGL on 2026-10-27, AAPL on 2026-10-28, plus any foldable-iPhone headlines
- **metric**: EPS vs consensus
- **timeframe**: 2026-10-27 to 2026-10-28

- Microsoft will beat consensus EPS when it reports earnings on 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_92212970] [ev_rec_e5ece467]
- Alphabet will beat consensus EPS when it reports earnings on 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_47d7fdf5] [ev_rec_92550d6e]
- Apple will beat consensus EPS when it reports earnings on 2026-10-28. [ev_earn_1a6934ff] [ev_rec_232758df]
- A foldable iPhone is already being framed in coverage as a potential next growth-cycle catalyst for Apple ahead of the 2026-10-28 earnings date. [ev_news_ea62ab95] [ev_earn_1a6934ff]

## By the numbers
- **metric**: calibrated_p_up_5d
- **value**: 0.331–0.558
- **comparison**: dispersion across mega-cap tech
- **period**: 5-day forward

- MSFT has beaten consensus EPS in all four most recent quarters (Q3 2025 +0.39, Q4 2025 +0.11, Q1 2026 +0.13, Q2 2026 +0.41), with largest surprise in latest print. [ev_fundamentals_2638c6f0]
- AAPL's calibrated 5-day up probability (0.33) is the lowest among the three names, reflecting recent miss in Q2 2026 (-0.017 EPS surprise) and mixed recent history. [ev_fundamentals_1a514387] [ev_fundamentals_ed8471a0]
- GOOGL shows the widest EPS surprise variance: a +0.70 beat in Q3 2025 followed by two consecutive misses (-0.13 in Q2 2026, -0.09 in Q1 2026), with calibrated 5-day up probability (0.56) between AAPL and MSFT. [ev_fundamentals_cc2ce868] [ev_fundamentals_8af38a9d]
- MSFT's 5-day forward probability of price appreciation is 0.39, below its base rate of 0.55, suggesting calibrated model assigns below-baseline odds to near-term upside. [ev_fundamentals_6740a7ec]
- GOOGL's calibrated 5-day up probability (0.56) exceeds its base rate (0.51), indicating the model assigns above-baseline odds to near-term upside despite recent earnings misses. [ev_fundamentals_8af38a9d]
- AAPL's calibrated 5-day up probability (0.33) is substantially below its base rate (0.68), the largest negative divergence among the three names, reflecting model downgrade from historical frequency. [ev_fundamentals_1a514387]

## Sources

- [ev_conv_6d3de894] convergence_signal — `supabase:watchlist_convergence:MSFT`
- [ev_conv_b117e0ab] convergence_signal — `supabase:watchlist_convergence:AAPL`
- [ev_conv_9b0e8fe5] convergence_signal — `supabase:watchlist_convergence:GOOGL`
- [ev_cov_1557222c] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:98823963-9bbb-4690-aed5-598f1da75ba5`
- [ev_cov_beac0d07] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:cbf8609d-b1fc-416c-adee-60a2e2b9c2b6`
- [ev_cov_8fa3b978] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:9cffb451-c51c-484b-9d7b-3370a881c09a`
- [ev_cov_4ab8a1ab] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:0b64e48a-73f0-4d6f-bebf-78bd777ca834`
- [ev_cov_94ff10bd] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:9c826064-2755-4b18-809e-1f8dbf092055`
- [ev_cov_12d0b394] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:1b057e19-37df-4344-a691-df9c4b12366c`
- [ev_cov_634a2938] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:6f45445c-7dd9-43f7-8303-b7b76a50d90a`
- [ev_cov_a82afd6d] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:2ff1bbd8-e68b-4192-b59b-45f5270fc031`
- [ev_cov_50e532ff] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:f80ac6c0-1bf6-4210-a9c0-3c224bf9bbc3`
- [ev_cov_b253f7b2] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:978d2b1a-b826-4fe1-bd52-1afe646661e2`
- [ev_cov_333d64d5] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:3ecb0fe2-51f3-4472-b3db-aa871b4a2e5b`
- [ev_cov_0f634fa1] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:cc6cb418-2587-4513-96ad-7242b5c8bb85`
- [ev_cov_23e75fce] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:0135497a-8448-4b0a-8c55-47e013c16607`
- [ev_cov_4244b133] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:2fbb9b6f-6d06-482b-a27f-8f656d63ecb2`
- [ev_cov_f71aff55] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:71bbcc97-a7c4-476f-8118-097a511abb76`
- [ev_cov_9c70ea0e] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:da91a3bf-68fe-4a22-869a-494cb6bfdc37`
- [ev_cov_92516894] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:28205256-eb7f-409e-9967-afeaf145225b`
- [ev_cov_91f2e37d] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:ea818bf7-d7b6-4a62-a521-4082f94e08bb`
- [ev_cov_d6ebe307] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:70d914a5-b74d-4ffb-87db-02779805aac8`
- [ev_cov_db2fc889] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:114fcb90-ced3-4f1c-bd29-59fbc61733d2`
- [ev_cov_bf614d6d] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:0dea4c6e-f3a0-44c0-a99f-0257ecd9ac28`
- [ev_cov_055c62e0] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:8da79f89-fc92-47b6-b461-54504b3b9959`
- [ev_cov_22ae151c] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:96d9775b-6e6d-4bfa-bff5-2cff1d63bd7a`
- [ev_cov_d96f01c4] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:ab6010fa-1077-4f25-ab7b-61cd5bcfa251`
- [ev_cov_329ec2ca] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:aec66cd1-8415-4fcb-bc88-443cd97baf50`
- [ev_cov_6530f724] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:aaca6340-5b8f-469c-a705-180b5eaaeed4`
- [ev_cov_9fe869f5] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:4933044b-3f2d-4659-ace1-093987748e66`
- [ev_cov_367460eb] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:e9792545-5aa8-41bd-840b-da72e4ea0523`
- [ev_cov_7b6f03f4] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:7ff9ef16-ebcb-4ecd-bc6f-c0b90f19c39f`
- [ev_cov_7129e6c6] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:0e4f5a74-b6fc-4458-9fdc-a5fc0e61c515`
- [ev_cov_77dc0b67] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:194985d4-5698-4529-a8b5-d77eb8962804`
- [ev_cov_2aa02cc7] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:7d859949-c025-4d08-9194-c0791a95293a`
- [ev_cov_08f2551c] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:3b293610-9791-4798-a878-681cd86c1177`
- [ev_cov_b6559eb0] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:4bbaf75c-6654-438c-8970-9bd835dd3036`
- [ev_cov_0084d5f8] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:75022657-1f17-41db-8512-887d99a3e7a0`
- [ev_cov_c1567435] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:9b58ec54-d5b0-4da4-b0e0-bbafa8fd19ae`
- [ev_cov_1a0f3d4b] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:fc23c39c-1d62-499c-9229-cda1be1b5415`
- [ev_cov_5307f9f8] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:c242f61f-acaa-43b6-8658-c9e07d615da4`
- [ev_quote_106608ef] market_quote — `market data:quote:GOOGL`
- [ev_quote_d0f5e4ce] market_quote — `market data:quote:AAPL`
- [ev_quote_5795acdc] market_quote — `market data:quote:MSFT`
- [ev_profile_1662999e] company_profile — `market data:profile:MSFT`
- [ev_rec_e5ece467] analyst_recommendation — `market data:recommendation:MSFT`
- [ev_profile_f07a9b87] company_profile — `market data:profile:AAPL`
- [ev_rec_232758df] analyst_recommendation — `market data:recommendation:AAPL`
- [ev_profile_94fea83b] company_profile — `market data:profile:GOOGL`
- [ev_rec_92550d6e] analyst_recommendation — `market data:recommendation:GOOGL`
- [ev_earn_92212970] earnings_date — `market data:earnings:MSFT`
- [ev_earn_1a6934ff] earnings_date — `market data:earnings:AAPL`
- [ev_earn_47d7fdf5] earnings_date — `market data:earnings:GOOGL`
- [ev_news_6bea2caa] news_headline — [https://www.benzinga.com/quote/AAPL](https://www.benzinga.com/quote/AAPL)
- [ev_news_ea62ab95] news_headline — [https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:a8ce27254094b:0-can-apple-s-foldable-iphone-fuel-the-next-growth-cycle-for-the-stock](https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:a8ce27254094b:0-can-apple-s-foldable-iphone-fuel-the-next-growth-cycle-for-the-stock)
- [ev_news_84996a47] news_headline — [https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/tech/nasdaq-aapl/apple/news/apple-aapl-stock-looks-above-fair-value-after-strong-run](https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/tech/nasdaq-aapl/apple/news/apple-aapl-stock-looks-above-fair-value-after-strong-run)
- [ev_news_e1692214] news_headline — [https://www.moomoo.com/community/feed/apple-s-stock-is-rallying-and-even-with-call-options-117250508324870](https://www.moomoo.com/community/feed/apple-s-stock-is-rallying-and-even-with-call-options-117250508324870)
- [ev_news_db515aae] news_headline — [https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/article/how-apple-stock-usually-reacts-to-big-iphone-reveal-events-152915777.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/article/how-apple-stock-usually-reacts-to-big-iphone-reveal-events-152915777.html)
- [ev_news_797d5ea4] news_headline — [https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-sp500-nasdaq-cpi-inflation-report-oracle-stock-orcl](https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-sp500-nasdaq-cpi-inflation-report-oracle-stock-orcl)
- [ev_news_2afa6cd0] news_headline — [https://www.chartmill.com/stock/quote/AAPL/stock-chart](https://www.chartmill.com/stock/quote/AAPL/stock-chart)
- [ev_news_e6d0f9b1] news_headline — [https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/alphabet-inc-googl-trending-stock-130007889.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/alphabet-inc-googl-trending-stock-130007889.html)
- [ev_news_4f563c66] news_headline — [https://www.xtb.com/int/market-analysis/news-and-research/technical-analysis-alphabet-shares-fall-2-and-test-the-200-day-moving-average](https://www.xtb.com/int/market-analysis/news-and-research/technical-analysis-alphabet-shares-fall-2-and-test-the-200-day-moving-average)
- [ev_news_94802e57] news_headline — [https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nasdaq-googl/alphabet/news/alphabet-googl-stock-may-be-32-undervalued-on-berkshire-ai-b](https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nasdaq-googl/alphabet/news/alphabet-googl-stock-may-be-32-undervalued-on-berkshire-ai-b)
- [ev_news_54802ce5] news_headline — [https://stocktwits.com/symbol/GOOGL](https://stocktwits.com/symbol/GOOGL)
- [ev_news_7f159b91] news_headline — [https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/oracle-shares-rise-ai-cloud-backlog-beats-estimates-2026-09-11/](https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/oracle-shares-rise-ai-cloud-backlog-beats-estimates-2026-09-11/)
- [ev_news_8afd17f8] news_headline — [https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/oracle-fallen-nearly-20-2026-112546569.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/oracle-fallen-nearly-20-2026-112546569.html)
- [ev_news_7ecea4be] news_headline — [https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/filing-amundi-sells-52344-shares-of-hecla-mining-company-hl-2026-09-12/](https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/filing-amundi-sells-52344-shares-of-hecla-mining-company-hl-2026-09-12/)
- [ev_news_32c82189] news_headline — [https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/consensus-sunshine-silver-mining-refining-company-nyse-ssmr-receives-consensus-rating-of-moderate-buy-from-analysts-2026-09-12/](https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/consensus-sunshine-silver-mining-refining-company-nyse-ssmr-receives-consensus-rating-of-moderate-buy-from-analysts-2026-09-12/)
- [ev_news_0759f5e6] news_headline — [https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/filing-amundi-raises-stock-position-in-ero-copper-corp-ero-2026-09-12/](https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/filing-amundi-raises-stock-position-in-ero-copper-corp-ero-2026-09-12/)
- [ev_news_221747f2] news_headline — [https://www.cnn.com/markets/stocks/MS](https://www.cnn.com/markets/stocks/MS)
- [ev_news_e15cc4ed] news_headline — [https://www.cnn.com/markets/stocks/MRVL](https://www.cnn.com/markets/stocks/MRVL)
- [ev_news_a887fbd8] news_headline — [https://www.investors.com/news/technology/oracle-stock-orcl-q1-earnings-aug-2026-ai/](https://www.investors.com/news/technology/oracle-stock-orcl-q1-earnings-aug-2026-ai/)
- [ev_fundamentals_ed8471a0] fundamentals — `quant:earnings_surprises:AAPL`
- [ev_fundamentals_1a514387] fundamentals — `quant:direction_prob:AAPL`
- [ev_fundamentals_cc2ce868] fundamentals — `quant:earnings_surprises:GOOGL`
- [ev_fundamentals_8af38a9d] fundamentals — `quant:direction_prob:GOOGL`
- [ev_fundamentals_2638c6f0] fundamentals — `quant:earnings_surprises:MSFT`
- [ev_fundamentals_6740a7ec] fundamentals — `quant:direction_prob:MSFT`