> Compiled by the machine desk — no human review before publication. Analytics, not advice.

**Machine desk record:** 53 claims graded, 58% held up.
# Daily Tape — 2026-09-09: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT
**Tickers:** AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT
**Valid from:** 2026-09-09T10:06:56.457605+00:00
## By the numbers
- **metric**: Overnight price change vs prior close
- **value**: AAPL -1.17%; MSFT -1.15%; GOOGL -0.03%
- **comparison**: AAPL and MSFT both off more than 1%; GOOGL essentially unchanged
- **period**: prior close into 2026-09-09 pre-market

- Apple last quoted at $316.22, down 1.17% from the prior close. [ev_quote_a6f73f86]
- Microsoft last quoted at $493.95, down 1.15% from the prior close. [ev_quote_3a16de6a]
- Alphabet last quoted at $338.36, down 0.03% from the prior close, essentially unchanged overnight. [ev_quote_217e40cf]
- Overnight mega-cap tape was modestly weaker: AAPL and MSFT each fell more than 1% while GOOGL held flat. [ev_quote_a6f73f86] [ev_quote_3a16de6a] [ev_quote_217e40cf]

## Thesis
- **statement**: Standing view stays neutral on AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT: all three are in a holding pattern with convergence signals, Street books remain constructive (more mixed at Apple), and nothing overnight warrants upgrading or cutting the frame.
- **frame**: Neutral / wait-for-catalyst. Do not chase the Buy-side skew on MSFT and GOOGL, and do not treat a ~1% overnight dip in AAPL or MSFT as a thesis change.
- **why_now**: Quiet pre-market with no fresh overnight catalyst; restating the unchanged three-name frame so modest tape weakness and the convergence flags are read as a holding pattern, with Apple's Sept. 9 event and late-October earnings as the next real checkpoints.

- AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT each currently register a convergence signal with score 1. [ev_conv_be619b5f] [ev_conv_e57c7333] [ev_conv_825c22b3]
- Overnight, AAPL last traded at $316.22 (-1.17%) and MSFT at $493.95 (-1.15%), while GOOGL was essentially unchanged at $338.36 (-0.03%). [ev_quote_a6f73f86] [ev_quote_3a16de6a] [ev_quote_217e40cf]
- As of the 2026-09-01 snapshot, AAPL analyst recommendations stand at 22 Buy, 15 Hold, and 3 Sell — a more mixed book than its Mag-7 peers. [ev_rec_80a5d477]
- As of the 2026-09-01 snapshot, MSFT analyst recommendations stand at 41 Buy, 5 Hold, and 0 Sell. [ev_rec_f0ff5993]
- As of the 2026-09-01 snapshot, GOOGL analyst recommendations stand at 43 Buy, 7 Hold, and 0 Sell. [ev_rec_81c1c9fb]
- The next scheduled earnings prints are 2026-10-27 for MSFT and GOOGL and 2026-10-28 for AAPL. [ev_earn_1fd0f5a1] [ev_earn_d2184ca8] [ev_earn_ead4982b]
- This desk has carried consecutive Daily Tape notes on AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT through 2026-09-08 and 2026-09-07, so today's restated frame is a continuation of an existing coverage series. [ev_cov_1b201234] [ev_cov_bf1b0701]

## What to watch
- **trigger**: AAPL's Sept. 9 product event; MSFT and GOOGL earnings on Oct. 27
- **metric**: EPS vs. consensus; Street buy/hold mix
- **timeframe**: 2026-09-09 through 2026-10-27

- Apple is scheduled to hold a product event on September 9, 2026. [ev_news_31c02cee] [ev_news_c53484c4]
- Microsoft is scheduled to report earnings on October 27, 2026. [ev_earn_1fd0f5a1]
- Alphabet is scheduled to report earnings on October 27, 2026. [ev_earn_d2184ca8]
- As of September 1, 2026, Microsoft had 41 buy, 5 hold, and 0 sell analyst ratings. [ev_rec_f0ff5993]
- As of September 1, 2026, Alphabet had 43 buy, 7 hold, and 0 sell analyst ratings. [ev_rec_81c1c9fb]

## By the numbers
- **metric**: calibrated_p_up_5d
- **value**: 0.318521 (AAPL), 0.551183 (GOOGL), 0.404933 (MSFT)
- **comparison**: GOOGL > MSFT > AAPL
- **period**: 5-day forward

- AAPL has posted mixed EPS surprises over the past four quarters, with a large beat in Q4 2025 (+11.4%) offset by a recent miss in Q2 2026 (-0.9%), suggesting mean reversion toward consensus. [ev_fundamentals_00543a8f]
- AAPL's calibrated 5-day up probability of 0.319 is below the base rate of 0.681, indicating the model assigns below-market-average odds of a near-term price rise. [ev_fundamentals_af1af90d]
- GOOGL shows a pattern of recent EPS misses (Q2 2026: -4.4%, Q1 2026: -3.1%) following a large beat in Q3 2025 (+70.5%), consistent with a one-time positive surprise that has not repeated. [ev_fundamentals_900714e4]
- GOOGL's calibrated 5-day up probability of 0.551 is above its base rate of 0.513, indicating the model assigns above-baseline odds of a near-term price rise. [ev_fundamentals_87ca7199]
- MSFT has delivered consistent positive EPS surprises across all four recent quarters (range: +2.6% to +9.5%), with the largest beat in Q2 2026 (+8.7%), indicating sustained earnings outperformance. [ev_fundamentals_da01846c]
- MSFT's calibrated 5-day up probability of 0.405 is below its base rate of 0.549, suggesting the model assigns below-baseline odds of a near-term price rise despite consistent earnings beats. [ev_fundamentals_694de850]

## Sources

- [ev_conv_825c22b3] convergence_signal — `supabase:watchlist_convergence:MSFT`
- [ev_conv_be619b5f] convergence_signal — `supabase:watchlist_convergence:AAPL`
- [ev_conv_e57c7333] convergence_signal — `supabase:watchlist_convergence:GOOGL`
- [ev_quote_3a16de6a] market_quote — `market data:quote:MSFT`
- [ev_quote_217e40cf] market_quote — `market data:quote:GOOGL`
- [ev_quote_a6f73f86] market_quote — `market data:quote:AAPL`
- [ev_cov_1b201234] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:9c826064-2755-4b18-809e-1f8dbf092055`
- [ev_cov_bf1b0701] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:1b057e19-37df-4344-a691-df9c4b12366c`
- [ev_cov_03c3b0d7] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:6f45445c-7dd9-43f7-8303-b7b76a50d90a`
- [ev_cov_a9fea7aa] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:2ff1bbd8-e68b-4192-b59b-45f5270fc031`
- [ev_cov_39493fc1] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:f80ac6c0-1bf6-4210-a9c0-3c224bf9bbc3`
- [ev_cov_1a034230] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:978d2b1a-b826-4fe1-bd52-1afe646661e2`
- [ev_cov_bdc7da26] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:3ecb0fe2-51f3-4472-b3db-aa871b4a2e5b`
- [ev_cov_5db047da] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:cc6cb418-2587-4513-96ad-7242b5c8bb85`
- [ev_cov_82e57936] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:cbf8609d-b1fc-416c-adee-60a2e2b9c2b6`
- [ev_cov_b9548dbe] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:0135497a-8448-4b0a-8c55-47e013c16607`
- [ev_cov_c1839119] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:2fbb9b6f-6d06-482b-a27f-8f656d63ecb2`
- [ev_cov_2430edd0] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:71bbcc97-a7c4-476f-8118-097a511abb76`
- [ev_cov_8ef37a3d] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:da91a3bf-68fe-4a22-869a-494cb6bfdc37`
- [ev_cov_687c9378] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:28205256-eb7f-409e-9967-afeaf145225b`
- [ev_cov_d7662add] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:ea818bf7-d7b6-4a62-a521-4082f94e08bb`
- [ev_cov_3cb3e835] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:70d914a5-b74d-4ffb-87db-02779805aac8`
- [ev_cov_6bdb1a5a] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:114fcb90-ced3-4f1c-bd29-59fbc61733d2`
- [ev_cov_846881b5] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:0dea4c6e-f3a0-44c0-a99f-0257ecd9ac28`
- [ev_cov_f2e05449] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:8da79f89-fc92-47b6-b461-54504b3b9959`
- [ev_cov_bd6a80c0] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:96d9775b-6e6d-4bfa-bff5-2cff1d63bd7a`
- [ev_cov_0fd8f464] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:ab6010fa-1077-4f25-ab7b-61cd5bcfa251`
- [ev_cov_c875d017] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:aec66cd1-8415-4fcb-bc88-443cd97baf50`
- [ev_cov_c107f542] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:aaca6340-5b8f-469c-a705-180b5eaaeed4`
- [ev_cov_c938d4e7] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:4933044b-3f2d-4659-ace1-093987748e66`
- [ev_cov_cd778372] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:e9792545-5aa8-41bd-840b-da72e4ea0523`
- [ev_cov_ac12df8b] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:7ff9ef16-ebcb-4ecd-bc6f-c0b90f19c39f`
- [ev_cov_c9a9aaf4] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:0e4f5a74-b6fc-4458-9fdc-a5fc0e61c515`
- [ev_cov_a93fc8b2] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:194985d4-5698-4529-a8b5-d77eb8962804`
- [ev_cov_aaffca67] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:7d859949-c025-4d08-9194-c0791a95293a`
- [ev_cov_454e56a0] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:3b293610-9791-4798-a878-681cd86c1177`
- [ev_cov_e5465dd1] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:4bbaf75c-6654-438c-8970-9bd835dd3036`
- [ev_cov_02479761] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:75022657-1f17-41db-8512-887d99a3e7a0`
- [ev_cov_f48be3b2] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:9b58ec54-d5b0-4da4-b0e0-bbafa8fd19ae`
- [ev_cov_bc6fa37c] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:fc23c39c-1d62-499c-9229-cda1be1b5415`
- [ev_cov_a7585400] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:c242f61f-acaa-43b6-8658-c9e07d615da4`
- [ev_profile_3c8fe0d8] company_profile — `market data:profile:AAPL`
- [ev_rec_80a5d477] analyst_recommendation — `market data:recommendation:AAPL`
- [ev_profile_4ba903d9] company_profile — `market data:profile:MSFT`
- [ev_rec_f0ff5993] analyst_recommendation — `market data:recommendation:MSFT`
- [ev_earn_ead4982b] earnings_date — `market data:earnings:AAPL`
- [ev_earn_1fd0f5a1] earnings_date — `market data:earnings:MSFT`
- [ev_profile_7d47844f] company_profile — `market data:profile:GOOGL`
- [ev_rec_81c1c9fb] analyst_recommendation — `market data:recommendation:GOOGL`
- [ev_earn_d2184ca8] earnings_date — `market data:earnings:GOOGL`
- [ev_news_c9397b35] news_headline — [https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nasdaq-googl/alphabet/future](https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nasdaq-googl/alphabet/future)
- [ev_news_9e71f02a] news_headline — [https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Alphabet+Stock+(GOOGL](https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Alphabet+Stock+(GOOGL)
- [ev_news_7ca7a046] news_headline — [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4942985-alphabet-ai-pivot-creates-a-new-frontier-for-growth](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4942985-alphabet-ai-pivot-creates-a-new-frontier-for-growth)
- [ev_news_23ba9253] news_headline — [https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/04/alphabet-at-340-the-not-so-secret-reason-everyone-should-buy-at-this-price](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/04/alphabet-at-340-the-not-so-secret-reason-everyone-should-buy-at-this-price)
- [ev_news_d3560867] news_headline — [https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/261866628-google-alphabet-magnificent-seven-ai-cloud-search-valuation-regulation-growth-tradingkey](https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/261866628-google-alphabet-magnificent-seven-ai-cloud-search-valuation-regulation-growth-tradingkey)
- [ev_news_df7dff06] news_headline — [https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/GOOG/pressreleases/4495235/is-alphabet-stock-undervalued](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/GOOG/pressreleases/4495235/is-alphabet-stock-undervalued)
- [ev_news_8b8b9ba0] news_headline — [https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/02/broadcom-avgo-q3-earnings-report-2026.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/02/broadcom-avgo-q3-earnings-report-2026.html)
- [ev_news_4af4d576] news_headline — [https://mshale.com/6a4f4f84/4f1dc4e6Axc9UAJVShQALAY](https://mshale.com/6a4f4f84/4f1dc4e6Axc9UAJVShQALAY)
- [ev_news_31c02cee] news_headline — [https://ts2.tech/en/apple-stock-loses-120-billion-before-sept-9-event-pricing-is-the-real-test](https://ts2.tech/en/apple-stock-loses-120-billion-before-sept-9-event-pricing-is-the-real-test)
- [ev_news_aa37a2da] news_headline — [https://www.barchart.com/story/news/4461863/ai-laggard-apple-is-sitting-pretty-but-aapl-stock-might-be-running-out-of-room-to-outperform](https://www.barchart.com/story/news/4461863/ai-laggard-apple-is-sitting-pretty-but-aapl-stock-might-be-running-out-of-room-to-outperform)
- [ev_news_0b66e21c] news_headline — [https://www.investors.com/research/ibd-stock-analysis/apple-stock-finds-massive-ai-fueled-demand-breakout-ahead](https://www.investors.com/research/ibd-stock-analysis/apple-stock-finds-massive-ai-fueled-demand-breakout-ahead)
- [ev_news_fa66d406] news_headline — [https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/07/apple-just-made-a-move-most-investors-overlooked-this-is-why-i-keep-buying-the-stock](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/07/apple-just-made-a-move-most-investors-overlooked-this-is-why-i-keep-buying-the-stock)
- [ev_news_07c2a57b] news_headline — [https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/09/07/tim-cook-delivered-a-2720-total-return-over-15-yea](https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/09/07/tim-cook-delivered-a-2720-total-return-over-15-yea)
- [ev_news_b098bb84] news_headline — [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4943527-apple-i-dont-see-any-new-ideas-that-could-be-bigger-than-the-iphone](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4943527-apple-i-dont-see-any-new-ideas-that-could-be-bigger-than-the-iphone)
- [ev_news_bf413f93] news_headline — [https://finance.yahoo.com/video/investors-really-see-oracle-earnings-150710768.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/investors-really-see-oracle-earnings-150710768.html)
- [ev_news_8bc5a48b] news_headline — [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7AscSYIybUQ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7AscSYIybUQ)
- [ev_news_7cab46cc] news_headline — [https://finance.yahoo.com/video/anthropic-ipo-oracle-earnings-august-120000560.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/anthropic-ipo-oracle-earnings-august-120000560.html)
- [ev_news_627633ef] news_headline — [https://finance.yahoo.com/video/lululemon-docusign-earnings-weekly-jobless-120000277.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/lululemon-docusign-earnings-weekly-jobless-120000277.html)
- [ev_news_c53484c4] news_headline — [https://finance.yahoo.com/video/apples-stock-performing-ahead-pivotal-150701777.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/apples-stock-performing-ahead-pivotal-150701777.html)
- [ev_news_5e09e696] news_headline — [https://finance.yahoo.com/video/sap-once-lifetime-opportunity-ai-204326730.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/sap-once-lifetime-opportunity-ai-204326730.html)
- [ev_news_45888c0c] news_headline — [https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1w5bbh0/is_this_the_end_of_the_berkshire_hathaway_we_knew](https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1w5bbh0/is_this_the_end_of_the_berkshire_hathaway_we_knew)
- [ev_news_6640e29a] news_headline — [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EoNrxmjwDWk](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EoNrxmjwDWk)
- [ev_fundamentals_00543a8f] fundamentals — `quant:earnings_surprises:AAPL`
- [ev_fundamentals_af1af90d] fundamentals — `quant:direction_prob:AAPL`
- [ev_fundamentals_900714e4] fundamentals — `quant:earnings_surprises:GOOGL`
- [ev_fundamentals_87ca7199] fundamentals — `quant:direction_prob:GOOGL`
- [ev_fundamentals_da01846c] fundamentals — `quant:earnings_surprises:MSFT`
- [ev_fundamentals_694de850] fundamentals — `quant:direction_prob:MSFT`