> Compiled by the machine desk — no human review before publication. Analytics, not advice.

**Machine desk record:** 44 claims graded, 61% held up.
# Daily Tape — 2026-09-02: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT
**Tickers:** AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT
**Valid from:** 2026-09-02T10:08:47.528305+00:00
## By the numbers
- **metric**: AAPL overnight change
- **value**: +2.61%
- **comparison**: vs GOOGL -1.28% and MSFT -1.24%
- **period**: overnight into 2026-09-02

- AAPL last printed $325.13, up 2.61%. [ev_quote_232c5b69]
- GOOGL last printed $335.02, down 1.28%. [ev_quote_0a8a6915]
- MSFT last printed $501.02, down 1.24%. [ev_quote_30e578dd]
- Street ratings on AAPL as of 2026-09-01 stood at 22 buy, 15 hold, and 3 sell. [ev_rec_f82aee57]
- Street ratings on GOOGL as of 2026-09-01 stood at 43 buy, 7 hold, and 0 sell. [ev_rec_e56877df]
- Street ratings on MSFT as of 2026-09-01 stood at 41 buy, 5 hold, and 0 sell. [ev_rec_8e3c1631]
- Relative Street conviction is weaker on AAPL than on GOOGL or MSFT, with AAPL’s 22/15/3 buy/hold/sell mix versus 43/7/0 and 41/5/0, respectively, as of 2026-09-01. [ev_rec_f82aee57] [ev_rec_e56877df] [ev_rec_8e3c1631]

## Thesis
- **statement**: Standing-neutral on AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT: mixed-to-crowded Street books and score-1 convergence signals do not support a directional call before the late-October prints.
- **frame**: Hold through the overnight tape split; October earnings are the decision point, not this morning's divergence.
- **why_now**: AAPL +2.61% versus GOOGL -1.28% and MSFT -1.24% arrived with no shared fundamental catalyst; GOOGL and MSFT report 2026-10-27 and AAPL on 2026-10-28.

- As of 2026-09-01, Apple's analyst book is mixed at 22 buy, 15 hold, and 3 sell recommendations. [ev_rec_f82aee57]
- As of 2026-09-01, Alphabet's analyst book is 43 buy, 7 hold, and 0 sell recommendations. [ev_rec_e56877df]
- As of 2026-09-01, Microsoft's analyst book is 41 buy, 5 hold, and 0 sell recommendations. [ev_rec_8e3c1631]
- AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT each currently carry a convergence signal with a score of 1. [ev_conv_42b8f754] [ev_conv_038c785b] [ev_conv_7c702fd7]
- Rosenblatt's Apple price target of $303 sits below Apple's last print of $325.13. [ev_news_a7ca6ca8] [ev_quote_232c5b69]
- Alphabet and Microsoft are scheduled to report earnings on 2026-10-27, and Apple is scheduled to report on 2026-10-28. [ev_earn_3daa0dbd] [ev_earn_7acefb26] [ev_earn_580312de]

## What to watch
- **trigger**: MSFT and GOOGL (Oct 27) and AAPL (Oct 28) earnings prints
- **metric**: EPS and revenue versus consensus
- **timeframe**: October 27–28, 2026

- Microsoft is scheduled to report earnings on 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_7acefb26]
- Alphabet is scheduled to report earnings on 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_3daa0dbd]
- Apple is scheduled to report earnings on 2026-10-28. [ev_earn_580312de]

## By the numbers
- **metric**: calibrated_p_up_5d
- **value**: 0.333 (AAPL) vs 0.669 (GOOGL) vs 0.432 (MSFT)
- **comparison**: GOOGL > MSFT > AAPL
- **period**: 5-day forward

- AAPL has the lowest calibrated 5-day upside probability (0.333) among the three names, reflecting recent mixed earnings surprises (−1.7 bps miss in Q2 2026, +2.2 bps beat in Q1 2026) and a base rate of 67.3% that the model has discounted. [ev_fundamentals_2148d3cc] [ev_fundamentals_61f347bd]
- GOOGL shows the highest calibrated 5-day upside probability (0.669) despite recent earnings misses (−13 bps in Q2 2026, −8.5 bps in Q1 2026), suggesting the model is pricing mean reversion or a lower base rate (50.4%) that leaves room for positive surprise. [ev_fundamentals_0fe54259] [ev_fundamentals_eb0560a0]
- MSFT has delivered consistent positive EPS surprises across four consecutive quarters (ranging +10.6 to +41.3 bps), yet its calibrated 5-day upside probability (0.432) sits between AAPL and GOOGL, indicating the model has already priced in the beat streak. [ev_fundamentals_2639d102] [ev_fundamentals_53c63801]

## Sources

- [ev_conv_7c702fd7] convergence_signal — `supabase:watchlist_convergence:MSFT`
- [ev_conv_42b8f754] convergence_signal — `supabase:watchlist_convergence:AAPL`
- [ev_conv_038c785b] convergence_signal — `supabase:watchlist_convergence:GOOGL`
- [ev_quote_0a8a6915] market_quote — `market data:quote:GOOGL`
- [ev_quote_30e578dd] market_quote — `market data:quote:MSFT`
- [ev_quote_232c5b69] market_quote — `market data:quote:AAPL`
- [ev_cov_044c0ead] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:71bbcc97-a7c4-476f-8118-097a511abb76`
- [ev_cov_13480433] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:c242f61f-acaa-43b6-8658-c9e07d615da4`
- [ev_cov_24d95cfd] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:fc23c39c-1d62-499c-9229-cda1be1b5415`
- [ev_cov_4a95da72] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:4bbaf75c-6654-438c-8970-9bd835dd3036`
- [ev_cov_afe6a103] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:70d914a5-b74d-4ffb-87db-02779805aac8`
- [ev_cov_eda32d13] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:4933044b-3f2d-4659-ace1-093987748e66`
- [ev_cov_0e667c34] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:96d9775b-6e6d-4bfa-bff5-2cff1d63bd7a`
- [ev_cov_beadd722] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:0dea4c6e-f3a0-44c0-a99f-0257ecd9ac28`
- [ev_cov_5b5cf458] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:aaca6340-5b8f-469c-a705-180b5eaaeed4`
- [ev_cov_6603cc21] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:28205256-eb7f-409e-9967-afeaf145225b`
- [ev_cov_a12b2184] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:9b58ec54-d5b0-4da4-b0e0-bbafa8fd19ae`
- [ev_cov_6f9bdd4d] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:75022657-1f17-41db-8512-887d99a3e7a0`
- [ev_cov_46f0d006] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:3ecb0fe2-51f3-4472-b3db-aa871b4a2e5b`
- [ev_cov_bf5b0eb9] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:ab6010fa-1077-4f25-ab7b-61cd5bcfa251`
- [ev_cov_aec981c8] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:2fbb9b6f-6d06-482b-a27f-8f656d63ecb2`
- [ev_cov_7fee819b] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:114fcb90-ced3-4f1c-bd29-59fbc61733d2`
- [ev_cov_ed154b6e] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:ea818bf7-d7b6-4a62-a521-4082f94e08bb`
- [ev_cov_2de37d55] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:3b293610-9791-4798-a878-681cd86c1177`
- [ev_cov_82e3aaff] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:7d859949-c025-4d08-9194-c0791a95293a`
- [ev_cov_c95e77f4] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:194985d4-5698-4529-a8b5-d77eb8962804`
- [ev_cov_6786289b] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:0e4f5a74-b6fc-4458-9fdc-a5fc0e61c515`
- [ev_cov_332e706e] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:7ff9ef16-ebcb-4ecd-bc6f-c0b90f19c39f`
- [ev_cov_30282422] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:e9792545-5aa8-41bd-840b-da72e4ea0523`
- [ev_cov_3eceda15] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:aec66cd1-8415-4fcb-bc88-443cd97baf50`
- [ev_cov_7cfd9221] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:8da79f89-fc92-47b6-b461-54504b3b9959`
- [ev_cov_bd692841] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:da91a3bf-68fe-4a22-869a-494cb6bfdc37`
- [ev_cov_25ef408a] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:0135497a-8448-4b0a-8c55-47e013c16607`
- [ev_cov_8ee39866] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:cbf8609d-b1fc-416c-adee-60a2e2b9c2b6`
- [ev_cov_4af40df9] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:cc6cb418-2587-4513-96ad-7242b5c8bb85`
- [ev_profile_b172e69a] company_profile — `market data:profile:AAPL`
- [ev_rec_f82aee57] analyst_recommendation — `market data:recommendation:AAPL`
- [ev_profile_8d00517c] company_profile — `market data:profile:GOOGL`
- [ev_rec_e56877df] analyst_recommendation — `market data:recommendation:GOOGL`
- [ev_profile_9a47a7ee] company_profile — `market data:profile:MSFT`
- [ev_rec_8e3c1631] analyst_recommendation — `market data:recommendation:MSFT`
- [ev_earn_580312de] earnings_date — `market data:earnings:AAPL`
- [ev_earn_3daa0dbd] earnings_date — `market data:earnings:GOOGL`
- [ev_earn_7acefb26] earnings_date — `market data:earnings:MSFT`
- [ev_news_9cfb193c] news_headline — [https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/tech/nasdaq-aapl/apple/news/does-apples-new-m6-ai-macs-and-ceo-shift-reshape-the-bull-ca/amp](https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/tech/nasdaq-aapl/apple/news/does-apples-new-m6-ai-macs-and-ceo-shift-reshape-the-bull-ca/amp)
- [ev_news_8a4e53ff] news_headline — [https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/macro-takeaways-apple-earnings-204000517.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/macro-takeaways-apple-earnings-204000517.html)
- [ev_news_a7ca6ca8] news_headline — [https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/rosenblatt-raises-apple-stock-price-target-to-303-on-ceo-transition-93CH-4883904](https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/rosenblatt-raises-apple-stock-price-target-to-303-on-ceo-transition-93CH-4883904)
- [ev_news_cdd4e30a] news_headline — [https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/08/31/apple-at-320-heres-who-should-hold-their-shares](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/08/31/apple-at-320-heres-who-should-hold-their-shares)
- [ev_news_305a9fc8] news_headline — [https://investingnews.com/top-tech-news](https://investingnews.com/top-tech-news)
- [ev_news_52895150] news_headline — [https://www.barchart.com/story/news/4320061/fort-technology-announces-agsm-results](https://www.barchart.com/story/news/4320061/fort-technology-announces-agsm-results)
- [ev_news_cb942efb] news_headline — [https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/why-microsoft-msft-12-since-153027787.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/why-microsoft-msft-12-since-153027787.html)
- [ev_news_bc9fe622] news_headline — [https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262055798-microsoft-msft-price-meta-amazon-ai-tradingkey](https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262055798-microsoft-msft-price-meta-amazon-ai-tradingkey)
- [ev_news_747a079d] news_headline — [https://www.chartmill.com/stock/quote/MSFT/news](https://www.chartmill.com/stock/quote/MSFT/news)
- [ev_news_66ad437f] news_headline — [https://www.moomoo.com/options/MSFT260828P400000-US](https://www.moomoo.com/options/MSFT260828P400000-US)
- [ev_news_0851fe30] news_headline — [https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Microsoft+Stock+%28MSFT%29+Opinions+on+Strong+Cloud+Growth+and+Market+Recovery](https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Microsoft+Stock+%28MSFT%29+Opinions+on+Strong+Cloud+Growth+and+Market+Recovery)
- [ev_news_3f0ddb37] news_headline — [https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/software/nasdaq-msft/microsoft/news/microsoft-msft-stock-trades-fair-on-cash-flow-but-cheap-on-e](https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/software/nasdaq-msft/microsoft/news/microsoft-msft-stock-trades-fair-on-cash-flow-but-cheap-on-e)
- [ev_news_12b83eed] news_headline — [https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:a03ccd7d8094b:0-software-stocks-etfs-is-the-ai-sell-off-over](https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:a03ccd7d8094b:0-software-stocks-etfs-is-the-ai-sell-off-over)
- [ev_news_31fdadb7] news_headline — [https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/01/microsoft-and-tesla-enter-september-with-momentum-but-which-is-better](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/01/microsoft-and-tesla-enter-september-with-momentum-but-which-is-better)
- [ev_news_6241b100] news_headline — [https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nasdaq-meta/meta-platforms/news/ai-stocks-for-higher-rates-why-meta-oracle-and-alphabet-stan](https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nasdaq-meta/meta-platforms/news/ai-stocks-for-higher-rates-why-meta-oracle-and-alphabet-stan)
- [ev_news_8cfc772c] news_headline — [https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262008961-alphabet-googl-stock-price-forecast-2026-google-cloud-tradingkey](https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262008961-alphabet-googl-stock-price-forecast-2026-google-cloud-tradingkey)
- [ev_news_587149cd] news_headline — [https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/google-could-release-new-flash-ai-model-as-soon-as-wednesday-says-report-googl-stock-gains-after-hours/cZsoy1IRJMH](https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/google-could-release-new-flash-ai-model-as-soon-as-wednesday-says-report-googl-stock-gains-after-hours/cZsoy1IRJMH)
- [ev_news_bd6ae3f8] news_headline — [https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:a3fe38c81094b:0-nflx-vs-googl-which-streaming-ad-stock-has-an-edge-right-now](https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:a3fe38c81094b:0-nflx-vs-googl-which-streaming-ad-stock-has-an-edge-right-now)
- [ev_news_a555f37b] news_headline — [https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/broadcom-avgo-stock-buy-q3-203900190.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/broadcom-avgo-stock-buy-q3-203900190.html)
- [ev_news_d800e2f7] news_headline — [https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/marvell-technology-earnings-analysis-questions-answered-and-next-catalysts-93CH-4881606](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/marvell-technology-earnings-analysis-questions-answered-and-next-catalysts-93CH-4881606)
- [ev_news_a15d8224] news_headline — [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4941895-marvell-technology-greater-clarity-does-not-impress](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4941895-marvell-technology-greater-clarity-does-not-impress)
- [ev_news_697621d2] news_headline — [https://investingnews.com/top-tech-news](https://investingnews.com/top-tech-news)
- [ev_fundamentals_61f347bd] fundamentals — `quant:earnings_surprises:AAPL`
- [ev_fundamentals_2148d3cc] fundamentals — `quant:direction_prob:AAPL`
- [ev_fundamentals_eb0560a0] fundamentals — `quant:earnings_surprises:GOOGL`
- [ev_fundamentals_0fe54259] fundamentals — `quant:direction_prob:GOOGL`
- [ev_fundamentals_2639d102] fundamentals — `quant:earnings_surprises:MSFT`
- [ev_fundamentals_53c63801] fundamentals — `quant:direction_prob:MSFT`