> Compiled by the machine desk — no human review before publication. Analytics, not advice.

**Machine desk record:** 33 claims graded, 61% held up.
# Daily Tape — 2026-08-28: NVDA, AAPL, GOOGL
**Tickers:** NVDA, AAPL, GOOGL
**Valid from:** 2026-08-28T10:12:43.025196+00:00
## Catalyst
- **event**: Nvidia Q2 print doubled revenue and put next-year guidance on the tape — the only material 24h catalyst
- **magnitude**: NVDA +8.74% to $227.98
- **timing**: Print after the close 2026-08-26; reaction still driving the 2026-08-28 pre-market tape
- **expected_impact**: Reframes the AI demand-ceiling debate and already reversed the pre-print sell-the-news setup

- NVDA last traded at $227.98, up 8.74%. [ev_quote_89c0a039]
- CNN's 2026-08-26 post-print coverage said Nvidia doubled its revenue but still had not impressed investors. [ev_news_225ef84f]
- The +8.74% move in NVDA runs counter to the 2026-08-26 pre-print argument that the stock would almost certainly be cheaper after Wednesday's earnings. [ev_news_e75b0381] [ev_quote_89c0a039]
- NVDA holds above $210 as the post-print gap is digested. [ev_quote_89c0a039] [ev_news_225ef84f]

## Thesis
- **statement**: NVDA is a hold: next-year guidance reopened the AI-demand ceiling debate, but an 8.7% overnight jump after a mixed reception to doubled revenue does not justify chasing a still-crowded Street setup; duration gets tested on November 17.
- **frame**: Neutral / do-not-chase — treat the guide as a demand-ceiling reset, not a multiple reset.
- **why_now**: The print and next-year guide just hit; NVDA is +8.74% overnight and the standing view must be restated so the pop is not over-read as a thesis change.

- NVDA last traded at $227.98, up 8.74%. [ev_quote_89c0a039]
- NVDA's analyst book as of 2026-08-01 stood at 41 buy, 3 hold, and 1 sell ratings. [ev_rec_bc54eee5]
- Contemporaneous coverage of the latest print noted that Nvidia doubled revenue and still failed to impress investors. [ev_news_225ef84f]
- NVDA's next scheduled earnings date is 2026-11-17. [ev_earn_e9d6aa8e]
- NVDA holds above $210 through 2026-09-11 as the post-guide move is digested rather than fully reversed. [ev_quote_89c0a039]

## By the numbers
- **metric**: Overnight price change
- **value**: +8.74% to $227.98
- **comparison**: vs AAPL +0.36% and GOOGL -0.39% on the same tape
- **period**: overnight into 2026-08-28

- NVIDIA last traded at $227.98, up 8.74%. [ev_quote_89c0a039]
- NVIDIA's +8.74% move dwarfed Apple's +0.36% and Alphabet's -0.39% on the same session. [ev_quote_89c0a039] [ev_quote_31f724c4] [ev_quote_86297504]

## Thesis
- **statement**: Apple is a hold: installed-base and services cash flows are not in dispute, but a mixed 24-buy/14-hold/3-sell Street book and an unresolved fully-valued debate leave no edge versus sitting tight into the October 28 print.
- **frame**: Neutral (hold). Standing view, unchanged; no overnight catalyst.
- **why_now**: AAPL is little changed at $314.58 (+0.36%) with no material 24h finding. Restating the hold keeps the brief consistent and signals that a quiet tape is not a view change.

- AAPL last traded at $314.58, up 0.36%. [ev_quote_31f724c4]
- As of the 2026-08-01 snapshot, AAPL's Street book was 24 buy, 14 hold, and 3 sell ratings. [ev_rec_f6c9b247]
- Apple is scheduled to report earnings on 2026-10-28. [ev_earn_dd16b6fa]
- Recent coverage has questioned whether AAPL is fully valued even as Apple opened a Houston manufacturing center. [ev_news_e5d87ab8]
- AAPL remains above $300 through mid-September, consistent with a catalyst-light tape. [ev_quote_31f724c4]

## Thesis
- **statement**: Hold Alphabet near $341: advertising cash-flow durability still offsets unresolved AI-search disruption, so risk/reward stays balanced into the October 27 print.
- **frame**: standing-neutral
- **why_now**: Overnight tape is quiet (GOOGL -0.39%) with no company-specific catalyst; nothing in the last 24h upgrades or downgrades the view.

- GOOGL last traded at $340.65, down 0.39% overnight, with no material company-specific move. [ev_quote_86297504]
- As of 2026-08-01, Street ratings on GOOGL stand at 42 Buy, 8 Hold, and 0 Sell. [ev_rec_eed9cb61]
- Alphabet's next scheduled earnings date is 2026-10-27. [ev_earn_c8d94c05]
- The standing open question on Alphabet remains whether advertising dominance can survive the search disruption AI created. [ev_cov_b6aa6b39]
- GOOGL will remain above $325 through mid-September, consistent with a quiet, fairly valued mega-cap tape and no overnight catalyst. [ev_quote_86297504] [ev_rec_eed9cb61]

## What to watch
- **trigger**: Upcoming earnings prints: GOOGL Oct 27, AAPL Oct 28, NVDA Nov 17
- **metric**: EPS versus consensus
- **timeframe**: 2026-10-27 to 2026-11-17

- The next scheduled earnings dates on this tape are GOOGL on 2026-10-27, AAPL on 2026-10-28, and NVDA on 2026-11-17. [ev_earn_c8d94c05] [ev_earn_dd16b6fa] [ev_earn_e9d6aa8e]
- GOOGL will beat consensus EPS at its scheduled 2026-10-27 earnings report. [ev_earn_c8d94c05] [ev_rec_eed9cb61]
- AAPL will beat consensus EPS at its scheduled 2026-10-28 earnings report. [ev_earn_dd16b6fa] [ev_rec_f6c9b247]
- NVDA will beat consensus EPS at its scheduled 2026-11-17 earnings report. [ev_earn_e9d6aa8e] [ev_rec_bc54eee5]

## By the numbers
- **metric**: calibrated_p_up_5d
- **value**: 0.186–0.339
- **comparison**: base_rate 0.504–0.646
- **period**: 5-day forward

- NVDA has posted consistent positive EPS surprises over the past four quarters (0.0254 to 0.0816), with the most recent surprise at +3.8% above consensus. [ev_fundamentals_d62e07f2]
- NVDA's calibrated 5-day up probability (0.186) is substantially below its historical base rate (0.540), suggesting mean reversion or current technical headwinds. [ev_fundamentals_413de008]
- AAPL shows mixed recent EPS surprises: a miss in Q2 2026 (−0.9%) following a large beat in Q4 2025 (+4.2%), indicating inconsistent execution relative to consensus. [ev_fundamentals_a6a9eb22]
- GOOGL has deteriorated from a +29.4% EPS surprise in Q3 2025 to consecutive misses in Q1 and Q2 2026 (−3.2% and −4.4%), suggesting earnings momentum has reversed. [ev_fundamentals_8a6595d5]
- GOOGL's calibrated 5-day up probability (0.339) exceeds its historical base rate (0.504), a rare inversion among the three names, implying current positioning or technicals favor upside. [ev_fundamentals_9745f920]

## Sources

- [ev_conv_1e51f294] convergence_signal — `supabase:watchlist_convergence:NVDA`
- [ev_conv_07dfd742] convergence_signal — `supabase:watchlist_convergence:AAPL`
- [ev_conv_9fee70a1] convergence_signal — `supabase:watchlist_convergence:GOOGL`
- [ev_cov_bdf907e2] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:2fbb9b6f-6d06-482b-a27f-8f656d63ecb2`
- [ev_cov_cfd8c452] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:71bbcc97-a7c4-476f-8118-097a511abb76`
- [ev_cov_97e977a0] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:1e243f18-63ac-49de-8ce3-a71f003b1727`
- [ev_cov_71d95e09] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:da91a3bf-68fe-4a22-869a-494cb6bfdc37`
- [ev_cov_210ff710] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:28205256-eb7f-409e-9967-afeaf145225b`
- [ev_cov_51f3783e] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:ea818bf7-d7b6-4a62-a521-4082f94e08bb`
- [ev_cov_13d1e606] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:6fd4a0b9-e956-4475-87bf-00eb202de306`
- [ev_cov_bc4aad2a] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:70d914a5-b74d-4ffb-87db-02779805aac8`
- [ev_cov_58f197ba] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:114fcb90-ced3-4f1c-bd29-59fbc61733d2`
- [ev_cov_1358ae47] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:cbf8609d-b1fc-416c-adee-60a2e2b9c2b6`
- [ev_cov_726d0888] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:0dea4c6e-f3a0-44c0-a99f-0257ecd9ac28`
- [ev_cov_21d8c9e3] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:8da79f89-fc92-47b6-b461-54504b3b9959`
- [ev_cov_dff200c1] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:96d9775b-6e6d-4bfa-bff5-2cff1d63bd7a`
- [ev_cov_76755b70] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:ab6010fa-1077-4f25-ab7b-61cd5bcfa251`
- [ev_cov_35281e4f] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:aec66cd1-8415-4fcb-bc88-443cd97baf50`
- [ev_cov_ec677304] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:aaca6340-5b8f-469c-a705-180b5eaaeed4`
- [ev_cov_a6b159d7] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:4933044b-3f2d-4659-ace1-093987748e66`
- [ev_cov_b5de4710] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:e9792545-5aa8-41bd-840b-da72e4ea0523`
- [ev_cov_6ed43483] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:7ff9ef16-ebcb-4ecd-bc6f-c0b90f19c39f`
- [ev_cov_cfb68241] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:0e4f5a74-b6fc-4458-9fdc-a5fc0e61c515`
- [ev_cov_a2bc3b5d] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:194985d4-5698-4529-a8b5-d77eb8962804`
- [ev_cov_36c0f611] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:7d859949-c025-4d08-9194-c0791a95293a`
- [ev_cov_6f34d13a] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:3b293610-9791-4798-a878-681cd86c1177`
- [ev_cov_75e71b52] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:4bbaf75c-6654-438c-8970-9bd835dd3036`
- [ev_cov_2795e3b0] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:123d5a24-c369-49ac-a32c-e27dc1ce21f9`
- [ev_cov_b6aa6b39] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:75022657-1f17-41db-8512-887d99a3e7a0`
- [ev_cov_4bcbf1a3] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:9b58ec54-d5b0-4da4-b0e0-bbafa8fd19ae`
- [ev_cov_4aa7e797] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:fc23c39c-1d62-499c-9229-cda1be1b5415`
- [ev_cov_a62471cd] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:c242f61f-acaa-43b6-8658-c9e07d615da4`
- [ev_cov_a0c29484] existing_coverage — `supabase:research_artifacts:3b996b91-f6b5-498a-8a87-9a6bc504bb2a`
- [ev_quote_89c0a039] market_quote — `market data:quote:NVDA`
- [ev_quote_86297504] market_quote — `market data:quote:GOOGL`
- [ev_quote_31f724c4] market_quote — `market data:quote:AAPL`
- [ev_profile_543465ba] company_profile — `market data:profile:NVDA`
- [ev_rec_bc54eee5] analyst_recommendation — `market data:recommendation:NVDA`
- [ev_profile_f4633c60] company_profile — `market data:profile:AAPL`
- [ev_rec_f6c9b247] analyst_recommendation — `market data:recommendation:AAPL`
- [ev_profile_a268eaec] company_profile — `market data:profile:GOOGL`
- [ev_rec_eed9cb61] analyst_recommendation — `market data:recommendation:GOOGL`
- [ev_earn_e9d6aa8e] earnings_date — `market data:earnings:NVDA`
- [ev_earn_dd16b6fa] earnings_date — `market data:earnings:AAPL`
- [ev_earn_c8d94c05] earnings_date — `market data:earnings:GOOGL`
- [ev_news_99ad23e0] news_headline — [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4939394-nvidia-stock-may-plunge-after-earnings-even-if-it-beats](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4939394-nvidia-stock-may-plunge-after-earnings-even-if-it-beats)
- [ev_news_42e23924] news_headline — [https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/article/this-nvidia-earnings-fact-will-frustrate-you-103234712.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/article/this-nvidia-earnings-fact-will-frustrate-you-103234712.html)
- [ev_news_b20f1fff] news_headline — [https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/article/nvidias-q2-earnings-to-test-resurgent-ai-trade-112502189.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/article/nvidias-q2-earnings-to-test-resurgent-ai-trade-112502189.html)
- [ev_news_cfafa04f] news_headline — [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4635856-earnings-week-ahead-nvda-mrvl-zm-xpev-and-more](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4635856-earnings-week-ahead-nvda-mrvl-zm-xpev-and-more)
- [ev_news_5a13d12b] news_headline — [https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/article/nvidia-earnings-face-a-frustrating-reality-103234712.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/article/nvidia-earnings-face-a-frustrating-reality-103234712.html)
- [ev_news_e75b0381] news_headline — [https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/25/whatever-happens-on-wednesday-nvidia-stock-will-al/](https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/25/whatever-happens-on-wednesday-nvidia-stock-will-al/)
- [ev_news_b7f939d8] news_headline — [https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/whatever-happens-wednesday-nvidia-stock-033500837.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/whatever-happens-wednesday-nvidia-stock-033500837.html)
- [ev_news_225ef84f] news_headline — [https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/26/tech/nvidia-earnings](https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/26/tech/nvidia-earnings)
- [ev_news_e5d87ab8] news_headline — [https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/tech/nasdaq-aapl/apple/news/apple-aapl-opens-houston-manufacturing-center-is-the-stock-f](https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/tech/nasdaq-aapl/apple/news/apple-aapl-opens-houston-manufacturing-center-is-the-stock-f)
- [ev_news_f6591f32] news_headline — [https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/filing-b-metzler-seel-sohn-co-ag-sells-31693-shares-of-taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company-ltd-tsm-2026-08-21/](https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/filing-b-metzler-seel-sohn-co-ag-sells-31693-shares-of-taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company-ltd-tsm-2026-08-21/)
- [ev_news_a2fe929a] news_headline — [https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/list-top-gold-stocks-to-watch-now-august-25th-2026-08-25/](https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/list-top-gold-stocks-to-watch-now-august-25th-2026-08-25/)
- [ev_news_69121a0f] news_headline — [https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/24/why-micron-stock-dropped-this-morning/](https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/24/why-micron-stock-dropped-this-morning/)
- [ev_news_1cc58207] news_headline — [https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/27/cramers-lightning-round-apple-is-still-a-good-buy.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/27/cramers-lightning-round-apple-is-still-a-good-buy.html)
- [ev_news_0870cc8a] news_headline — [https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/modine-manufacturing-company-nysemod-given-consensus-rating-of-moderate-buy-by-brokerages-2026-08-24/](https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/modine-manufacturing-company-nysemod-given-consensus-rating-of-moderate-buy-by-brokerages-2026-08-24/)
- [ev_news_f3e8ba48] news_headline — [https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/25/wednesdays-big-stock-stories-whats-likely-to-move-the-market.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/25/wednesdays-big-stock-stories-whats-likely-to-move-the-market.html)
- [ev_news_38094e7c] news_headline — [https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/23/here-are-the-2-big-things-were-watching-in-the-stock-market-this-week.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/23/here-are-the-2-big-things-were-watching-in-the-stock-market-this-week.html)
- [ev_news_f8a577f5] news_headline — [https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/filing-panoramic-capital-llc-purchases-new-stake-in-modine-manufacturing-company-mod-2026-08-27/](https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/filing-panoramic-capital-llc-purchases-new-stake-in-modine-manufacturing-company-mod-2026-08-27/)
- [ev_news_3e00ab1d] news_headline — [https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/scotiabank-issues-negative-outlook-for-hecla-mining-earnings-2026-08-21/](https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/scotiabank-issues-negative-outlook-for-hecla-mining-earnings-2026-08-21/)
- [ev_news_3c12351c] news_headline — [https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/price-harmony-gold-mining-nyse-hmy-shares-gap-down-after-earnings-miss-2026-08-27/](https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/price-harmony-gold-mining-nyse-hmy-shares-gap-down-after-earnings-miss-2026-08-27/)
- [ev_news_f2636005] news_headline — [https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/list-top-gold-stocks-to-watch-now-august-25th-2026-08-25/](https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/list-top-gold-stocks-to-watch-now-august-25th-2026-08-25/)
- [ev_news_0ccfa501] news_headline — [https://www.barrons.com/articles/marvell-earnings-stock-price-07daa284](https://www.barrons.com/articles/marvell-earnings-stock-price-07daa284)
- [ev_news_e3873f53] news_headline — [https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/harmony-gold-mining-nysehmy-stock-price-up-69-still-a-buy-2026-08-21/](https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/harmony-gold-mining-nysehmy-stock-price-up-69-still-a-buy-2026-08-21/)
- [ev_news_e934b15d] news_headline — [https://www.cnn.com/markets/stocks/TSM](https://www.cnn.com/markets/stocks/TSM)
- [ev_news_c3a39283] news_headline — [https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/modine-manufacturing-company-nysemod-given-consensus-rating-of-moderate-buy-by-brokerages-2026-08-24/](https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/modine-manufacturing-company-nysemod-given-consensus-rating-of-moderate-buy-by-brokerages-2026-08-24/)
- [ev_fundamentals_d62e07f2] fundamentals — `quant:earnings_surprises:NVDA`
- [ev_fundamentals_413de008] fundamentals — `quant:direction_prob:NVDA`
- [ev_fundamentals_a6a9eb22] fundamentals — `quant:earnings_surprises:AAPL`
- [ev_fundamentals_b89186f6] fundamentals — `quant:direction_prob:AAPL`
- [ev_fundamentals_8a6595d5] fundamentals — `quant:earnings_surprises:GOOGL`
- [ev_fundamentals_9745f920] fundamentals — `quant:direction_prob:GOOGL`