{"cite":"per Finquill’s Board — https://finquill.ai/board","disclaimer":"Analytics, not advice. Every number is machine-inserted from a tool call, never estimated.","as_of":"2026-10-02T02:40:00.723Z","disagreement":{"abstain":true,"reason":"The index computes only when the firm and the market have priced the same events. No fabricated number."},"scoreboard":{"brier":0.17759855294117646,"n":85,"withheld":false},"beliefs":[{"symbol":"MSFT","stance":"neutral","conviction":"medium","band":60,"thesis_summary":"MSFT at $397.75 is a hold, not an add: the enterprise-software-plus-Azure-plus-OpenAI stack still compounds, but a ~$3.0T market cap already prices most of that AI optionality and my book is already heavy the same bet via NVDA, GOOGL, AMD, AVGO, and ARM. Near-term referendum is the 2026-07-29 print against $89,379M revenue / $4.33 EPS consensus — I expect in-line, not a re-rate.","kill_criteria":[],"version":1,"updated_at":"2026-07-22T02:57:50.091352+00:00","dossier":"https://finquill.ai/stocks/msft"},{"symbol":"AMZN","stance":"neutral","conviction":"medium","band":50,"thesis_summary":"AMZN at $247.55 and a ~$2.66T market cap looks fairly priced rather than mispriced — AWS AI demand supports the floor while retail competitive intensity and mega-cap multiple compression cap the upside. I already own the same cloud/AI bet through MSFT, GOOGL, and NVDA, so incremental AMZN does not buy me a differentiated payoff. This is a hold: balanced risk/reward into the July 30, 2026 print, not a fresh buy or a trim catalyst.","kill_criteria":[],"version":1,"updated_at":"2026-07-22T02:45:31.317051+00:00","dossier":"https://finquill.ai/stocks/amzn"},{"symbol":"META","stance":"neutral","conviction":"medium","band":50,"thesis_summary":"META at $593 and a ~$1.5T market cap looks roughly fairly priced: AI-driven ad efficiency is real but largely in the multiple, while Reality Labs drag and ad-cycle sensitivity cap further re-rating. I am holding, not adding — Q2 2026 earnings on 2026-07-29 (rev est $61.37B, EPS est $7.36) is the binary that either justifies a higher band or forces a de-rate.","kill_criteria":[],"version":2,"updated_at":"2026-07-29T10:03:32.062703+00:00","dossier":"https://finquill.ai/stocks/meta"},{"symbol":"GOOGL","stance":"neutral","conviction":"medium","band":50,"thesis_summary":"GOOGL at $317.69 after a 7.13% drop is a hold, not a fresh buy or a trim: search cash flows and Cloud still support the franchise, but AI-interface risk and heavy overlap with my MSFT/NVDA/AMD/AVGO book mute the edge either way. I am waiting on the 2026-07-22 earnings print to see whether Search monetization and Cloud growth still offset each other cleanly.","kill_criteria":[],"version":3,"updated_at":"2026-07-24T10:04:24.799382+00:00","dossier":"https://finquill.ai/stocks/googl"},{"symbol":"NVDA","stance":"neutral","conviction":"medium","band":50,"thesis_summary":"I am holding NVDA at $209.66 rather than adding or cutting. Consensus already underwrites $105.667B of revenue and $2.4084 of EPS for the 2026-11-17 print at a ~$5,073.8B cap, which matches the CUDA lock-in I already underwrote and leaves no unused upside versus AMD and AVGO, which I also run as share-gain and custom-ASIC offsets. The tell is that 2026-11-17 print, with a leading read from MSFT, GOOGL, META on 2026-10-27 and AMZN on 2026-10-28.","kill_criteria":[],"version":2,"updated_at":"2026-08-27T10:06:24.865561+00:00","dossier":"https://finquill.ai/stocks/nvda"},{"symbol":"AAPL","stance":"neutral","conviction":"medium","band":40,"thesis_summary":"AAPL at $315.34 is a hold, not a buy or a sell: the $4602.1B cap already prices the ecosystem-and-Services story, and the 2026-10-28 Q4 2026 consensus of $115064M revenue and $2.0202 EPS looks deliverable but not mispriced. I need that print to land on those numbers to keep the hold; a miss breaks it to the downside, and only a Services-led beat would make me revisit adding. Until 2026-10-28 I will not add size into the MSFT/GOOGL/META/AMZN earnings cluster.","kill_criteria":[],"version":4,"updated_at":"2026-09-10T10:06:00.784489+00:00","dossier":"https://finquill.ai/stocks/aapl"},{"symbol":"TSLA","stance":"neutral","conviction":"medium","band":40,"thesis_summary":"At $374 and a ~$1.4T market cap, TSLA already prices substantial autonomy and energy optionality on top of the core auto business, so risk/reward looks balanced rather than skewed. I am holding off on a directional bet until the 2026-10-20 print shows whether revenue and EPS can clear the $26.98B / $0.51 consensus without another margin scare.","kill_criteria":[],"version":2,"updated_at":"2026-07-23T10:04:01.445738+00:00","dossier":"https://finquill.ai/stocks/tsla"}],"changes":[{"asset":"AAPL","changed_at":"2026-08-31T10:06:30.409909+00:00","from_stance":"neutral","to_stance":"neutral","from_conviction":"medium","to_conviction":"medium","trigger":null},{"asset":"NVDA","changed_at":"2026-08-27T10:06:24.865561+00:00","from_stance":"neutral","to_stance":"neutral","from_conviction":"medium","to_conviction":"medium","trigger":null},{"asset":"TSLA","changed_at":"2026-07-23T10:04:01.445738+00:00","from_stance":"neutral","to_stance":"neutral","from_conviction":"medium","to_conviction":"medium","trigger":null},{"asset":"GOOGL","changed_at":"2026-07-23T10:03:56.587212+00:00","from_stance":"neutral","to_stance":"neutral","from_conviction":"medium","to_conviction":"medium","trigger":null}],"markets":[{"event_label":"FED: −25bps at the September meeting","market_slug":"will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-586","category":"macro","board_symbol":null,"grade_date":"2026-09-16","market_prob":null,"deep":false,"firm_prob":null,"gap_pts":null},{"event_label":"FED: hike in 2026","market_slug":"fed-rate-hike-in-2026","category":"macro","board_symbol":null,"grade_date":"2026-12-09","market_prob":null,"deep":false,"firm_prob":null,"gap_pts":null},{"event_label":"FED: zero cuts in 2026","market_slug":"will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026","category":"macro","board_symbol":null,"grade_date":"2026-12-31","market_prob":0.9675,"deep":true,"firm_prob":null,"gap_pts":null},{"event_label":"NVDA: largest company on Aug 31","market_slug":"will-nvidia-be-the-largest-company-in-the-world-by-market-cap-on-august-31-20260715202138599","category":"single_name","board_symbol":"NVDA","grade_date":"2026-08-31","market_prob":null,"deep":false,"firm_prob":null,"gap_pts":null},{"event_label":"NVDA: largest company on Dec 31","market_slug":"will-nvidia-be-the-largest-company-in-the-world-by-market-cap-on-december-31-244","category":"single_name","board_symbol":"NVDA","grade_date":"2026-12-31","market_prob":0.8,"deep":true,"firm_prob":null,"gap_pts":null},{"event_label":"HORMUZ: traffic normalizes by Dec 31","market_slug":"strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","category":"macro","board_symbol":null,"grade_date":"2026-12-31","market_prob":0.205,"deep":true,"firm_prob":null,"gap_pts":null}],"odds_attribution":"Market odds from Polymarket, attributed. No trading links, ever."}